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Tight race for Congress control could be decided by a few key campaigns

The race for control of Congress is highly competitive, with a few key campaigns likely to decide the balance of power in November. Democrats have gained momentum since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the presidential ticket, boosting enthusiasm and fundraising for down-ballot races. Republicans, initially favored to gain seats, now face a fundraising disadvantage and are working to maintain voter enthusiasm. The Senate is expected to be closely divided, with Democrats at risk of losing their slim majority, while the House majority also hangs in the balance as both parties vie for crucial seats in key states.

Quick Read

  • The race for control of Congress is extremely close, with key seats in the House and Senate likely to determine the majority.
  • Democrats have gained momentum and increased fundraising since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the presidential ticket.
  • Republicans, initially favored, are now facing a fundraising disadvantage as they struggle to keep up with Democratic enthusiasm.
  • Senate control is expected to be closely divided, with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin making it likely that Republicans will gain at least one seat.
  • Democrats are defending vulnerable Senate seats in states like Montana, while challenging Republicans in states like Texas and Florida.
  • In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson is working to protect Republicans in Democratic-leaning districts, particularly in New York and California.
  • Democrats are defending embattled House members and pragmatic lawmakers, with key races in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Alaska.
  • Republicans have diversified their candidate pool and report enthusiastic voter turnout at events, though they face financial challenges.
  • Both parties are focusing on voter outreach and mobilization efforts as they head into the final weeks before the election.
  • Fundraising remains a concern for Republicans, who are urging donors to step up as Democrats surge in donations and volunteer efforts.

Tight race for Congress control could be decided by a few key campaigns

NEWSLOOKS_ WASHINGTON (AP) —

As the race for control of Congress intensifies, a handful of campaigns could determine the balance of power this November, with both the House and Senate hanging in the balance. Lawmakers are returning to Washington for a three-week legislative sprint amid tight contests in Montana, New York, California, and other states, far from the presidential battleground between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., speaks during the Republican Jewish Coalition annual leadership summit Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun via AP)

Democrats have gained momentum since Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, boosting enthusiasm and funding for down-ballot races. Meanwhile, Republicans, who initially entered the race favored for gains, are now grappling with fundraising gaps and the challenge of maintaining voter enthusiasm, particularly in rural areas.

The Senate is likely headed toward a 50-50 split, especially with Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia, leaving Democrats at risk of losing their majority. Senate Republicans are also targeting other key Democratic incumbents in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana.

FILE – Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., leaves the chamber as the Senate prepares to advance the $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan passed by the House, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, April 23, 2024. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson is rallying Republicans to protect their slim majority, focusing on districts won by Biden in 2020. Democrats, buoyed by Harris’ rise, are defending seats in swing states and benefiting from an increase in volunteer activity and fundraising. As both parties face off, every vote and seat will be crucial in determining who controls Congress.

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