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Georgia’s Election May Shift Its Path Toward Europe or Russia

Georgia elections/ EU membership/ Georgian Dream/ Russia influence/ Bidzina Ivanishvili/ Tbilisi vote/ Georgian politics/ Newslooks/ TBILISI/ Georgia/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ In a highly charged election, Georgian voters decide between a future aligned with the European Union or one leaning toward Russia. The vote marks a pivotal moment in Georgia’s path to democracy, as allegations of intimidation and concerns about authoritarianism take center stage.

Demonstrators attend an opposition rally ahead upcoming next week parliamentary election in Tbilisi, Georgia, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Zurab Tsertsvadze)

Georgia’s Crossroads: Election Highlights Tensions Between EU Aspirations and Russian Influence

  • Historical Significance: Many view this election as the most critical since Georgia’s independence in 1991, with potential to align Georgia toward the European Union or into closer relations with Russia.
  • Ruling Party and Opposition: The ruling Georgian Dream, founded by pro-Russia billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, faces opposition coalitions emphasizing EU membership and democratic reforms.
  • Controversial Campaign: The pre-election atmosphere has been tense, with accusations of voter intimidation and smear tactics aimed at weakening the opposition.
  • Voter Perspectives: Georgian citizens express diverse views, with some seeing Georgian Dream as a pathway to “peaceful” EU integration, while others criticize its authoritarian leanings and warn of Russian influence.
  • EU Membership at Stake: The EU has put Georgia’s membership bid on hold due to recent restrictive laws, while both sides continue pledging EU-aligned policies.

Georgia’s Election May Shift Its Path Toward Europe or Russia

Deep Look

Georgians are casting their ballots in a critical election that many believe will determine whether the country leans toward European integration or drifts into closer alignment with Russia. In a nation of 3.7 million people positioned at the geopolitical crossroads of the South Caucasus, the choice has reignited debates over democracy, national identity, and foreign policy in a highly polarized pre-election climate. With a divided electorate and strong opinions on both sides, Saturday’s vote could chart Georgia’s course for years to come.

Foreign Policy and European Aspirations Dominate Campaigns

Throughout the campaign, Georgian Dream, the ruling party founded by billionaire and former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, has promoted a vision of “peaceful” development, contrasting scenes of calm in Georgia with images of destruction from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Their messaging urges voters to “choose peace,” painting the opposition as destabilizing forces that could pull Georgia into war. The opposition, in turn, accuses Georgian Dream of using smear tactics and intimidation to sway votes, claiming that the party’s closeness to Russia threatens the country’s democratic future and undermines hopes of joining the European Union.

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has called this election an “existential” choice, urging the people to support reforms aligning with EU requirements. “Georgians want European integration and policies for a stable future,” noted 29-year-old voter Qristine Tordia, who cast her ballot in Tbilisi with a hopeful view toward a more progressive direction. Polls indicate that 80% of Georgians favor joining the EU, and the country’s constitution mandates leaders to pursue EU and NATO memberships. However, recent restrictive laws passed by Georgian Dream have created setbacks, leading the EU to suspend Georgia’s membership bid indefinitely.

Ivanishvili’s Influence and Rising Concerns About Authoritarianism

Bidzina Ivanishvili, a powerful yet reclusive figure in Georgian politics, has loomed large over the election. His fortune, amassed in Russia, and enduring influence as the founder of Georgian Dream have sparked suspicion among citizens wary of Russian interference. Ivanishvili’s recent comments have only intensified these concerns. At a pro-government rally in Tbilisi, he stated that opposition groups would be held accountable for “war crimes” if Georgian Dream prevails. He stopped short of explaining these claims but framed the election as a choice between “a government that serves you” and “agents of foreign influence,” an apparent reference to Western nations.

Some citizens expressed alarm at Ivanishvili’s comments, viewing them as a threat to opposition groups and a signal of increasing authoritarianism. “This election is about Georgia’s survival,” said Nika Gvaramia, leader of the opposition Coalition for Changes, which has criticized Georgian Dream for pursuing policies that align with Kremlin interests.

Intense Political Climate Amid Charges of Intimidation

Reports of voter intimidation and pressure to support Georgian Dream have marred the campaign, with many voters and opposition members alleging attempts to manipulate the electorate. Despite these claims, citizens remain resilient, with many rallying around the promise of an EU future. Opposition leaders, including President Zourabichvili, have urged voters to reject Georgian Dream’s policies, arguing that Ivanishvili’s governance could push Georgia closer to Russian influence, risking the country’s democratic values and aspirations.

Zourabichvili has called on opposition parties to unite for the reforms necessary to revive EU membership talks. While many parties have signed on to her “charter” for reform, they have yet to consolidate into a single bloc, making their path to victory more challenging in a fragmented electoral landscape.

Pivotal Issues on the Ballot

This election will determine the makeup of Georgia’s 150-seat parliament, with voters choosing from Georgian Dream and three major coalitions: the Unity National Movement, the Coalition for Changes, and Strong Georgia. Former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s Gakharia for Georgia party has vowed to remain independent, refusing to join any coalition but pledging to support opposition efforts to form a government if necessary.

In the weeks leading up to the election, Georgian Dream saturated the country with billboards depicting a stark contrast between a peaceful Georgia and a war-torn Ukraine, using the slogan “Say no to war — choose peace.” Some voters, however, remain unconvinced that Georgian Dream’s conservative policies align with the EU’s values, citing restrictive measures on free speech and minority rights, including limits on LGBTQ+ rights. For others, such as Latavra Dashniani, voting for Georgian Dream represents a way to enter Europe “with dignity,” highlighting conservative values she believes are central to the Georgian identity.

EU Skepticism and Georgia’s Future

Although both Georgian Dream and opposition parties have pledged to pursue EU membership, recent actions by the ruling party have cast doubts on the country’s alignment with Western ideals. Following Georgian Dream’s passage of laws restricting speech and political freedoms, EU leaders expressed “serious concerns” over Georgia’s trajectory. Vakhtang Asanidze, a Georgian Dream supporter at a pro-government rally, dismissed the EU’s criticisms, stating that Georgia could still join despite these legislative shifts.

While Georgian Dream’s campaign dismisses the election as a choice between Russia and Europe, the opposition contends that aligning with Georgian Dream could lead to a future with diminished freedoms and increased Russian influence. Given Russia’s history of occupying parts of Georgia — namely, Abkhazia and South Ossetia — the specter of a shift toward Moscow remains a potent fear for many Georgians.

As polls opened on Saturday, Georgians are braving political tensions to cast votes that could reshape their country’s future. With European aspirations and concerns about Russian influence in sharp focus, the outcome of this election could redefine Georgia’s role on the world stage.

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