First Female or First Convicted President? 2024’s Historic Stakes

First Female or First Convicted President? 2024’s Historic Stakes \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ The 2024 U.S. presidential election highlighted a sharply divided nation, with either the first female president or the first with a felony conviction poised to take office. Key issues—democracy, gender, class, misinformation, and political realignment—defined the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, further exposing the nation’s complex divides.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Quick Looks

• Historic Candidates: Voters will choose either Kamala Harris, the first potential female president, or Donald Trump, potentially the first president with a felony conviction.
• Divided Electorate: Surveys reveal a fractured voter base deeply concerned with democracy, the economy, and immigration.
• Gender and Class Realignment: Harris attracted more college-educated voters, while Trump garnered strong support from working-class men.
• Misinformation Concerns: Misinformation about election integrity spread widely, including fabricated claims targeting election processes.
• Billionaire Influence: Elon Musk openly backed Trump, while Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg supported Harris through major donations.

Deep Look

Even with the final outcome still uncertain, the 2024 presidential election has laid bare the stark divisions in American society as the country navigates shifting allegiances rooted in class, gender, and partisan beliefs. This election offers an unprecedented choice: Kamala Harris could become the first female president, while Donald Trump could be the first with a felony conviction, a testament to his ability to retain political strength despite legal challenges. The contest recalls the turbulent 1968 election, marked by unrest over race and the Vietnam War, yet this year’s divide seems even more entrenched.

AP VoteCast, a survey of over 110,000 voters, revealed a fractured voter base with varying priorities: about 40% of respondents ranked the economy as their top concern, while 20% cited immigration—a central theme for Trump—and another 10% chose abortion, a defining issue for Harris. Voters were also highly motivated by the issue of democracy itself, with nearly half listing it as their primary concern. This sentiment spanned party lines: two-thirds of Harris supporters and one-third of Trump supporters pointed to the future of democracy as their main voting consideration.

This election’s deeply polarized climate is rooted in Trump’s refusal to accept his 2020 defeat and his ongoing claims of electoral fraud, which have consistently undermined confidence in the democratic process. Harris and other critics have labeled Trump a “fascist,” and in turn, Trump has accused Harris of being a “communist” and a “fascist,” asserting that the criminal cases against him are a Democratic tactic to suppress his candidacy.

Election Integrity and Misinformation

As Election Day neared, Trump continued to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the electoral process, claiming he would lose only if “Democrats cheat.” Shortly before the polls closed, he alleged, without evidence, that “massive CHEATING” was occurring in Philadelphia. Federal agencies have dismissed these claims, noting there is no credible evidence of significant fraud in the current or prior election. In response to emerging misinformation, the FBI highlighted fabricated content circulating online, including a video falsely alleging that prison officials in several states had conspired with a political party to manipulate inmate voting.

Shifting Electoral Map and Changing Alliances

The coalition of voters traditionally supporting each party has shifted in the Trump era. Once-reliable Republican voters with college degrees, especially those in urban areas, have moved toward the Democratic camp, while Trump has attracted significant support among working-class white men and some Latino men. Although Black voters remain a strong Democratic base, Trump has noted an increase in support among Black men, signaling an evolution in these traditional party lines.

This realignment has redrawn the electoral map, solidifying traditionally competitive states like Florida and Ohio as Republican strongholds while keeping Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as key battlegrounds. Meanwhile, North Carolina, a Southern state with a history of GOP support, remains highly competitive.

Harris has courted college-educated moderates, including Republicans unsettled by Trump’s hardline approach. This election’s reshuffled alliances suggest that longstanding strategies for securing the White House may no longer apply when Trump is involved.

Gender Divide and ‘Bro’ Politics

This election marked the first presidential race following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, heightening the salience of abortion rights. It also saw a Republican candidate openly catering to male voters with an assertively masculine appeal. Advisers for both candidates anticipated a historic gender gap, with Harris drawing significant support from women and Trump from men. In a reflection of this dynamic, AP VoteCast reported that 1 in 10 voters identified abortion as their top concern, with 25% calling it the single most important factor in their vote.

The divide among male and female voters is nothing new; women have trended Democratic while men have leaned Republican in recent years. However, the stark contrast in voting priorities highlights how polarizing issues such as abortion and masculinity-focused rhetoric have deepened the divide, further fracturing the electorate.

Billionaire Influence in Politics

Money has had a substantial impact on this election, with billionaires on both sides of the political spectrum contributing substantial sums to support their preferred candidates. Elon Musk, one of the world’s richest men, played a prominent role in Trump’s campaign efforts, investing millions in a voter turnout initiative. Musk’s public alliance with Trump, bolstered by his influence over X (formerly Twitter), has made him a powerful figure in conservative media and a potential future policy influencer in a Trump administration.

On the Democratic side, tech moguls Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg each donated $50 million to a super PAC backing Harris, signaling the financial heft behind her campaign. This surge of billionaire involvement reflects the heightened role of money in modern U.S. elections, underscoring the influence of wealth in shaping political discourse and outcomes.

Key Takeaways and a Divided Path Forward

The 2024 presidential election, whichever way it concludes, has already underscored the challenges facing the next president in leading a deeply divided nation. Whether Harris or Trump claims victory, the winner will inherit an electorate split on fundamental issues, from economic policies to immigration and reproductive rights.

With Trump’s influence shifting Republican voter dynamics and Harris symbolizing a commitment to gender and racial inclusivity, the U.S. political landscape is evolving in ways that traditional coalitions may not encompass. The reshaped alliances and political battlegrounds emerging from this election highlight that past assumptions no longer hold, indicating a continued period of realignment and uncertainty in American politics.

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