Trump Middle East peace/ Israel Gaza conflict/ Trump Israel policy/ Iran tensions/ Trump foreign policy/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Donald Trump’s return to the White House comes with ambitious promises of Middle East peace amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran. His close ties to Israel, plans for Gaza, and potential shifts in U.S.-Iran relations bring both hope and uncertainty. Trump’s America First stance, coupled with the influence of Israel’s far-right government, adds complexity to his vision of regional stability.
Trump’s Middle East Peace Plans: Quick Look
- Peace Promise: Trump vows to end conflict quickly but offers few specifics.
- Israel Relations: Strong support expected for Netanyahu; potential challenges in navigating regional tensions.
- Gaza’s Future: Unclear vision for postwar governance; Trump has suggested a developmental approach.
- Iran Tensions: Trump’s stance could increase U.S.-Iran friction, especially with Iran’s nuclear program and regional allies.
- Unpredictable Strategy: Analysts expect uncertainty in Trump’s Middle East approach, shaped by domestic and religious influences.
Can Donald Trump Bring Lasting Peace to a Turbulent Middle East?
Deep Look
Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings with it a pledge to achieve Middle East peace, but this vision faces significant obstacles. Regional conflicts are at an all-time high, with fighting in Gaza, ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and growing concerns over Iran’s influence in the region. Trump’s close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his America First philosophy, and a history of unpredictable decision-making cast doubt on how his administration will navigate these complex issues.
Trump’s Promise of Peace and its Ambiguities
Throughout his campaign, Trump has positioned himself as a peacemaker for the Middle East, stating his desire to “stop the killing” in Gaza. Yet he has stopped short of explaining how he would pursue peace. During a campaign interview, Trump voiced support for Israel’s military actions in Gaza, urging the nation to “finish the job” against Hamas without specifying what this would entail.
Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza began in response to Hamas’s attacks on October 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 Israelis and led to the capture of 250 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory strikes have caused a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with over 43,000 deaths reported, according to Gaza health officials. This crisis has placed Israel in a challenging position, with rising criticism and international scrutiny. The U.S. has joined Egypt and Qatar in ceasefire negotiations, but these efforts have yet to yield results.
Netanyahu Hopes for Unrestrained Support
Netanyahu, leading Israel’s far-right government, sees Trump’s re-election as a chance to receive unequivocal U.S. support. Trump’s first term saw the U.S. recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, backing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and facilitating Israel’s normalization of relations with four Arab countries. Netanyahu hopes for similar gains during Trump’s second term, including a possible normalization deal with Saudi Arabia.
Yet Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu has been fraught. The two leaders had a public falling-out after Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 win, a move Trump saw as a betrayal. Still, Netanyahu recently visited Trump in Florida, likely seeking reassurance of U.S. support. Israel’s right-wing leaders hope Trump’s return will ease restrictions on Israel’s military actions in Gaza and possibly help Netanyahu avoid any future international legal consequences.
Gaza’s Postwar Future: A Contentious Issue
The question of Gaza’s future remains a critical challenge. Netanyahu’s government, pressured by far-right allies, has resisted proposals to transfer governance of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, which manages parts of the West Bank. Trump has offered an optimistic but vague vision, proposing that developers transform Gaza into a prosperous region, drawing comparisons to Monaco. However, without a clear governance strategy, any development plans would face significant hurdles.
Diana Buttu, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders, expresses skepticism over Trump’s concern for Palestinian interests. Without a clear U.S.-backed plan for Gaza’s governance, the region could continue to face instability and uncertainty. Trump’s stance may align more closely with Israel’s hard-liners, who favor Gaza’s control by Israeli forces, than with an international solution involving the Palestinian Authority.
Rising Iran Tensions and America First Policies
Iran’s influence remains one of Israel’s main security concerns, with Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas complicating the regional landscape. Israel is currently conducting military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where tensions have resulted in thousands of displaced civilians. With Trump’s re-election, questions are rising about whether he would continue or expand U.S. military support to counteract Iran and its allies.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program. In his latest campaign, he reiterated strong opposition to Iran’s nuclear activities. Analysts suggest Trump could adopt an even harder stance toward Iran, especially given recent reports of cyber-attacks on Trump campaign staff by alleged Iranian actors.
Trump’s America First approach, focused on limiting U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, could create a challenging dynamic. While he has hinted at reducing U.S. military commitments abroad, his ties with evangelical Christians and their strong pro-Israel stance may pressure him to maintain or increase support for Israel’s security efforts.
Mixed Signals on Israel’s Future Security Needs
The United States has played a significant role in supporting Israel’s defense, including by deploying military assets to the region and operating joint air defense systems. However, any aggressive move by Israel to target Iran’s nuclear facilities could require additional U.S. support. Trump’s potential decisions regarding Israel’s security will likely be influenced by his personal beliefs, his alliances within the U.S., and his intuition.
“Trump’s approach is expected to be marked by both unpredictability and intuition,” says Udi Sommer, a specialist in U.S.-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University. Trump’s relationships with influential figures like his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who advocated for Israel in Trump’s first term, and his strong evangelical support base could play a role in shaping policy decisions in the region.
A Complex Road Ahead for Middle East Peace
Trump’s peace promise faces multiple obstacles. His close alliance with Netanyahu and the influence of Israel’s far-right government present unique challenges. At the same time, his isolationist tendencies and America First rhetoric may restrict his involvement in Middle Eastern affairs. The conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the looming nuclear threat from Iran, and the precarious future of Gaza’s governance all add layers of complexity to Trump’s peace ambitions.
As Trump prepares to take office, his approach to the Middle East remains shrouded in uncertainty. His vision, shaped by promises of peace and tempered by nationalist policies, will be tested in a region marked by deep-rooted conflict. How his administration balances these competing interests will shape U.S. foreign policy and its role in the Middle East for years to come.
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