Trump’s Victory Threatens U.S. Climate Policies, Experts Warn

Trump’s Victory Threatens U.S. Climate Policies, Experts Warn \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 win, paired with Republican control of the Senate, poses potential risks to U.S. climate policies aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Experts express concern over significant measures that have driven emission reductions, which align with policies Trump has indicated he will target for rollback or elimination.

Key Climate Policies at Risk Under Trump Quick Looks

• Inflation Reduction Act: Expected to cut U.S. emissions by 40% by 2030, this act funds clean energy projects and consumer incentives.
• Power Plant Emissions Rules: Regulations requiring coal plants to capture 90% of emissions face potential repeal.
• Methane Emission Controls: National rules aimed at limiting methane leaks are likely to be challenged.
• Vehicle Emission Standards: Strong EPA tailpipe rules could be weakened or repealed.
• Alaska Drilling: Trump is expected to resume oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Deep Look

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office, along with a Republican Senate majority, has raised alarms among climate policy experts who foresee potential reversals of key U.S. climate initiatives. These policies have been instrumental in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and moving the country toward cleaner energy.

The Inflation Reduction Act: A Landmark Policy

The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a centerpiece of U.S. climate policy, projected to reduce national emissions by about 40% by 2030. This legislation has supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy by offering substantial incentives for businesses investing in solar and wind farms, geothermal energy, and carbon capture technology. Additionally, it provides a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle (EV) buyers and smaller credits for those purchasing used EVs.

However, Trump has vowed to dismantle what he terms the Democrats’ “green new scam” in favor of bolstering fossil fuel production. His promise to eliminate subsidies for wind power and other renewable projects puts the future of the IRA in jeopardy, though provisions like advanced manufacturing credits may survive due to their “America first” alignment, noted David Shepheard, energy expert at Baringa consultancy. Incentives for EVs, on the other hand, are seen as particularly vulnerable.

Scott Segal, a leader at Bracewell LLP, a law firm representing the energy industry, suggested that the act may not be fully repealed but could be heavily modified. Moreover, Dan Jasper of Project Drawdown highlighted that repealing certain sections could backfire since many investments and job benefits from the act are situated in Republican-leaning districts.

Threats to Power Plant Emission Regulations

The Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule aimed at power plant emissions could also face repeal under Trump. This regulation, announced in April, mandates coal-fired power plants to capture 90% of their carbon emissions or shut down within eight years. The rule is designed to cut about 1.38 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2047 and significantly reduce other air pollutants. However, the policy’s survival is unlikely under Trump, according to Shepheard, as the new administration may withdraw support for defending such EPA measures in court.

Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, stressed the importance of continuing the shift from coal to renewable energy, saying, “It’s not just about the climate. It’s about our lives and our health.”

Curtailing Methane Emissions

Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, has been targeted by Biden’s EPA through the first-ever national rules to limit leaks from oil and gas infrastructure. These rules face legal challenges from industry groups and Republican states, which argue the EPA overstepped its bounds. If Trump’s Justice Department opts not to defend these rules, their future becomes uncertain. Critics fear that relaxed regulations on methane will exacerbate climate issues like severe droughts and stronger hurricanes.

Vehicle Emission and Efficiency Standards

Under Biden, the EPA introduced stringent rules for vehicle emissions, framing them as critical to reducing overall greenhouse gases. Trump, who repealed over 100 environmental regulations during his first term, is expected to initiate a process to roll back these standards. He has frequently criticized the EV industry, claiming that electric vehicles threaten auto industry jobs and perform poorly in cold weather—a claim debunked by experts. Although his rhetoric softened after receiving support from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, industry observers still predict efforts to slow the shift toward electrification in transportation.

Drilling in Alaska’s Arctic Refuge

Oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has long been a partisan issue. Trump previously opened the area to drilling through a 2017 tax law, though no drilling occurred during his term. Biden reversed these efforts, prioritizing the preservation of habitats for wildlife like polar bears and caribou. A renewed Trump administration is expected to reinstate drilling rights, continuing the decades-long political battle over the refuge.

Clean Energy Transition May Persist at Other Levels

Despite federal rollbacks, experts suggest that state and local initiatives could sustain momentum in the transition to clean energy. States like California have pledged aggressive climate action, and bipartisan interest in nuclear energy as a carbon-free power source continues to grow. Armond Cohen, executive director of the Clean Air Task Force, emphasized that cities, businesses, and states with net-zero commitments will push forward, leading to record installations of wind and solar energy.

Gina McCarthy, former EPA administrator and Biden’s first national climate adviser, echoed this sentiment. “No matter what Trump may say, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable and our country is not turning back,” she said, highlighting the resilience and bipartisan nature of clean energy advocates.

Conclusion

As Trump prepares to take office, the future of key U.S. climate policies remains uncertain. Rollbacks on regulations targeting emissions from power plants, methane leaks, vehicle standards, and renewable energy incentives are likely, prompting concerns among climate experts. However, continued state and local initiatives, combined with private sector commitments, may mitigate the impact of federal policy reversals.

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