Syria’s Turmoil: Alone & Broke, Is Assad’s Rule at Risk of Collapse?

Syria conflict/ Bashar al-Assad/ rebel offensive/ Aleppo/ Hama/ defections/ geopolitical shifts/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces his most severe challenge in a decade as rebels launch a rapid offensive, reclaiming Aleppo and key cities like Hama. With Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah preoccupied or weakened, Assad is left isolated, struggling with an exhausted military and economic collapse. The coming weeks will determine if his regime can withstand this renewed threat or if Syria’s conflict enters a new phase.

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Assad’s Rule Under Threat: Quick Looks

• Rebel Offensive: Insurgents reclaim Aleppo, Hama, and several strategic towns, outpacing government defenses.
• Dwindling Allies: Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah are unable to provide substantial reinforcements.
• Economic Collapse: Sanctions, crises, and unpaid troops weaken Assad’s military and institutions.
• Defections: Over 1,600 government soldiers defect in Aleppo as rebels offer amnesty.
• Future at Stake: Assad’s ability to hold power hinges on retaking lost ground and external support.

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Syria’s Turmoil: Alone & Broke, Is Assad’s Rule at Risk of Collapse?

Deep Look

Renewed Rebel Offensive Challenges Assad’s Rule

A decade after Syria’s civil war left President Bashar al-Assad in control of most of the country, a shocking rebel offensive has reignited the conflict. The rebels, a coalition of militias long preparing for such a moment, have seized Aleppo, Hama, and other key cities in a rapid advance that has left Assad’s forces reeling.

The insurgents’ offensive, launched on November 27, has exposed the vulnerabilities of Assad’s regime, which is grappling with economic collapse and weakened alliances. The rebels’ success signals that Syria’s long-dormant conflict is far from over.

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Assad’s Isolation Grows

In the past, Assad relied on Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to maintain control. Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias played decisive roles in reclaiming Aleppo in 2016 and quelling insurgent strongholds.

Today, Assad faces a vastly different reality. Russia, distracted by its war in Ukraine, has limited capacity to support Assad militarily. Iran’s regional proxies, including Hezbollah, have been degraded by Israeli airstrikes and their own costly conflicts. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, once a powerful force in Syria, has refrained from deploying significant reinforcements, citing risks of Israeli retaliation.

“The rebel assault underscores the precarious nature of regime control in Syria,” said Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute for Peace. Without substantial external backing, Assad’s ability to counter the insurgents’ gains is severely hampered.

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Economic and Military Collapse

Years of sanctions, the economic collapse of neighboring Lebanon, and a devastating earthquake in 2023 have left Syria’s economy in shambles. Soldiers in Assad’s army, unpaid and demoralized, are deserting in droves. The rebels have capitalized on this fragility, issuing amnesty cards to defectors and recruiting from within Assad’s own ranks.

Rebel spokesperson Hassan Abdul-Ghani said over 1,600 soldiers in Aleppo had applied for “protection cards,” offering defectors safety and a chance to switch sides.

“If you can’t pay your soldiers a living wage, how can you expect them to stay and fight?” said Aron Lund, a Syria expert. “This is an exhausted, broken, and dysfunctional regime.”

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Geopolitical Shifts Create Opportunities for Rebels

The Syrian rebels’ resurgence follows significant geopolitical shifts, including Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war in 2023. These events diverted international attention and resources away from Syria, weakening Assad’s key allies and emboldening the opposition.

Charles Lister, a Syria analyst, noted that despite years of infighting, the rebel militias never stopped organizing for an opportunity to strike. “The regime has grown complacent, believing it could simply wait out the opposition. Now, that complacency has backfired,” he said.

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Defections and Strategic Gains

In Aleppo, a city where government forces achieved a symbolic victory in 2016, the rebels are reversing the tide. Thousands of defectors have joined their ranks, with many lining up at police stations to register and turn in their weapons.

Rebels also captured Hama and other cities critical to the regime’s supply routes. Analysts warn that losing control of these regions could sever Assad’s grip on Damascus and the Alawite coastal strongholds that underpin his support.

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What Lies Ahead?

The next few weeks will determine Assad’s fate. His regime must regroup and retake lost ground or risk losing the critical lifelines that sustain its power. Meanwhile, rebels, buoyed by their gains, aim to maintain momentum and pressure the regime into collapse.

As Syria faces yet another phase of conflict, regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Russia must decide how to respond to the escalating crisis. The international community, largely disengaged from Syria in recent years, will also be forced to reconsider its role in a conflict that refuses to fade away.

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