Updated Story: Blinken Concludes Middle East Talks Post-Assad

14 Dec 2024

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Updated Story: Blinken Concludes Middle East Talks Post-Assad \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ In his likely final Middle East trip as U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken sought to address Syria’s instability following Bashar Assad’s ouster, focusing on preventing a resurgence of ISIS and shaping Syria’s future governance. Amid Biden’s final weeks in office, Blinken’s efforts ran parallel to talks for a Gaza ceasefire and hostages’ release, handled by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Concerns about the incoming Trump administration’s Middle East strategy loom as time runs out for Biden’s foreign policy initiatives.

Blinken’s Final Middle East Visit: Quick Looks

Post-Assad Syria Focus: Blinken worked to build regional consensus on Syria’s future governance and stability.
Preventing ISIS Resurgence: Strikes on ISIS targets and agreements with Kurdish forces aim to curb militant regrouping.
Gaza Ceasefire Progress: Hostage negotiations led by Jake Sullivan remain critical as the Biden administration ends.
Missing Americans: Efforts to locate journalist Austin Tice and release detained Americans intensified post-Assad.
Trump Transition Concerns: Regional players remain uncertain about the incoming Trump administration’s approach to Syria.
Hostage Talks in Progress: White House Adviser Brett McGurk stays in the region to negotiate further hostage releases.

Deep Look: Blinken’s Updated Mission in the Middle East

Charting Syria’s Post-Assad Future

Antony Blinken concluded a pivotal visit to the Middle East on Saturday, aimed at stabilizing Syria after President Bashar Assad’s sudden ouster. His discussions in Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq sought to shape a unified regional strategy for post-Assad Syria, addressing challenges such as sectarian divisions, terrorism, and humanitarian aid.

Blinken emphasized the importance of regional and international support for a new Syrian government that respects minority and women’s rights, ensures the distribution of humanitarian aid, and eliminates Assad-era chemical weapons.

The Jordanian port city of Aqaba hosted emergency talks with representatives from the Arab League, Turkey, the European Union, and the United Nations. These discussions resulted in an agreement to back a transitional government aligned with these principles.

“We know that what happens inside Syria can have powerful consequences well beyond its borders, from mass displacement to terrorism,” Blinken told reporters in Aqaba.

Combatting ISIS Amid Instability

As Syria faces political and sectarian uncertainty, the U.S. has intensified its focus on preventing a resurgence of ISIS. This includes strikes on 75 ISIS targets in the Syrian desert and support for Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), who oversee detention facilities holding roughly 10,000 ISIS fighters.

“We have the urgency of now,” Blinken said Saturday, stressing the need to maintain pressure on ISIS. “This is a moment of instability in which ISIS will seek to regroup and take advantage of the situation.”

The U.S. also facilitated a fragile agreement between Turkey and the SDF, despite Turkey’s longstanding opposition to Kurdish factions. Blinken acknowledged the challenges of maintaining this accord, especially with Turkey’s deep mistrust of Kurdish groups.

Biden’s Legacy and Trump’s Incoming Administration

The Biden administration’s Middle East initiatives face a ticking clock as the January 20, 2025, transition to the Trump administration approaches. Trump’s previous tenure saw efforts to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, creating concerns about how his return to power might impact regional stability.

While Trump’s public statements demand a swift resolution to the Gaza hostage crisis, U.S. officials believe he is unlikely to dismantle the military presence in Syria, given the threat of an ISIS resurgence. Trump often credits his administration with vanquishing ISIS during his first term, and officials say the risk of allowing ISIS to regroup may influence his decisions.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Adviser, has expressed cautious optimism about securing a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before the administration ends. “This thing was just waiting until after Jan. 20,” Sullivan said this week, signaling alignment with the Trump transition team on this issue.

Hostage Recovery Efforts Intensify

The Biden administration has ramped up efforts to locate missing Americans in Syria, including journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing for over a decade. Blinken said the U.S. is in direct talks with the rebels who ousted Assad, emphasizing the urgency of bringing Tice home.

Additionally, the U.S. military rescued Travis Timmerman, an American detained in Assad’s prisons after disappearing seven months ago. Timmerman was released this week as part of broader prisoner releases following Assad’s departure. He was transported by U.S. military helicopter to Jordan and is awaiting the next steps in his return.

Progress on Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Releases

While Blinken shifted his focus to Syria, efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire and the release of over 100 hostages remain ongoing. Sullivan, who traveled to Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, noted progress in talks. White House Senior Adviser Brett McGurk remains in the region to continue negotiations, though roughly one-third of the hostages are believed to have died in captivity, according to Israeli officials.

Looking Ahead

Blinken’s final trip as Secretary of State underscores the complexities of Middle East diplomacy in a volatile moment. From addressing Syria’s uncertain future to negotiating hostages’ release and preventing ISIS’s resurgence, his efforts reflect the Biden administration’s focus on leaving a lasting impact in its final weeks.

The incoming Trump administration’s approach to Syria and the broader Middle East remains a question mark, adding uncertainty to an already turbulent region.