China’s Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year in 2024 \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, reaching 1.408 billion, down by 1.39 million. The nation faces significant demographic challenges, including an aging population, workforce shortages, and declining birthrates. Despite government incentives, the transition to a smaller, older population threatens economic stability.
China’s Demographic Challenges: Quick Looks
- Population Decline: China’s population fell to 1.408 billion in 2024, continuing a three-year trend.
- Aging Crisis: Over 22% of China’s population is now aged 60 or older.
- Historical Context: The post-1949 population boom led to the restrictive one-child policy in the 1980s.
- Gender Imbalance: Decades of selective abortions created a skewed sex ratio of 104.34 men for every 100 women.
- Economic Pressures: Fewer workers, an aging society, and migration abroad are straining China’s economy.
- Urbanization Trend: Urbanization rose to 67%, with 10 million more people moving to cities in 2024.
- Fertility Incentives: Cash payouts and housing support for families have failed to reverse birthrate declines.
- Global Comparison: China joined nations like Japan and South Korea in facing declining populations.
Deep Look
For the third consecutive year, China’s population has fallen, marking a significant turning point for the world’s second-most populous nation. As of the end of 2024, China’s population stood at 1.408 billion, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year. This demographic shift underscores the growing challenges China faces, including an aging population, workforce shortages, and declining birthrates.
Population Decline Amid Broader Trends
The decline in China’s population mirrors trends seen in other East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong, where birthrates have plummeted due to rising living costs, delayed marriages, and career-focused lifestyles. In 2023, China’s population dropped for the first time in decades, allowing India to surpass it as the world’s most populous country.
With limited immigration policies and a cultural emphasis on large families eroded by urbanization and economic pressures, China is particularly vulnerable to the effects of population decline.
Aging Society and Gender Imbalance
China’s aging population is among its most pressing concerns. Over 22% of its population, or 310.3 million people, are now aged 60 or older. Projections estimate this number will exceed 30% by 2035. This aging trend strains China’s already fragile social security system, with fewer working-age people contributing to pensions and healthcare.
Compounding these challenges is a long-standing gender imbalance. Decades of selective abortions, driven by cultural preferences for male children, have skewed the sex ratio. Official figures report 104.34 men for every 100 women, though independent estimates suggest the disparity may be even higher. This imbalance raises concerns about social stability and the future of family formation in China.
Historical Context: From Population Boom to Control
China’s population policies have played a pivotal role in shaping its demographics. After the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, the population doubled in just three decades despite setbacks like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. By the late 1970s, concerns about overpopulation led to the implementation of the infamous one-child policy.
Though never formally codified into law, the policy enforced strict limits on family size, with violators facing forced abortions, sterilizations, and hefty fines. Rural families, where male preference was particularly strong, often found loopholes, but the policy left a lasting legacy of an aging society and a skewed gender ratio.
Economic Pressures and Social Implications
The shrinking workforce poses significant challenges for China’s economic growth. Once a manufacturing powerhouse fueled by abundant labor, the country now struggles to maintain a competitive edge. Meanwhile, lavish spending on military projects and infrastructure contrasts with the frailty of its social security system.
Migration abroad further exacerbates workforce shortages, as young, skilled workers seek better opportunities overseas. At the same time, urbanization continues, with 10 million more people moving to cities in 2024, raising the urbanization rate to 67%.
Government efforts to reverse the demographic decline, including cash payouts for families with up to three children and financial assistance for housing, have seen limited success. Despite these measures, the cost of raising children and shifting social attitudes continue to deter young couples from starting families.
Educational and Infrastructure Adjustments
China’s aging population is reshaping its infrastructure and education systems. Vacant schools and kindergartens in some areas are being repurposed as care facilities for the elderly. Discussions about raising the retirement age—currently one of the world’s lowest—are gaining traction but face resistance from an already strained workforce.
Global and Long-Term Implications
China’s demographic challenges carry significant implications for its future. As the world’s second-largest economy, China risks “growing old before it grows rich,” a dilemma that could hinder its ability to sustain economic momentum. The declining population also limits domestic consumer markets, further straining economic growth.
China’s situation aligns with broader global patterns but is magnified by its sheer size and unique history. The transition to a smaller, older population presents formidable challenges, and its efforts to mitigate these issues will be closely watched by other nations facing similar trends.
