Trump Promises Peace in Ukraine Amid Tough Stances/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine within months, but both Moscow and Kyiv remain entrenched in their positions. Russia pushes for territorial gains and NATO exclusion, while Ukraine demands strong security guarantees and resists temporary truces. Experts predict tough negotiations with little compromise from either side.
Trump’s Ukraine Peace Promise Faces Major Challenges: Quick Looks
- Trump’s Goal: Vowed peace in Ukraine within 6 months, with envoy Kellogg suggesting 100 days.
- Russian Stance: Putin demands recognition of territorial gains, NATO exclusion, and sanctions relief.
- Ukrainian Response: Zelenskyy seeks strong security guarantees and comprehensive peace, not a temporary truce.
- Battlefield Reality: Russia advances in eastern Ukraine; Kyiv counters with incursions into Kursk.
- Manpower Struggles: Ukraine faces recruitment shortages and desertions amid grinding conflict.
- Experts’ View: Skepticism over compromises; fears of escalation remain high.
Trump Promises Peace in Ukraine Amid Tough Stances
Deep Look
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to broker a peace deal in Ukraine, bringing a swift end to a devastating three-year war. However, entrenched positions in Moscow and Kyiv, coupled with ongoing battlefield dynamics, make Trump’s pledge highly ambitious.
Current Battlefield Dynamics
Russia has steadily advanced in eastern and southern Ukraine, focusing on territories it annexed in 2022, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Meanwhile, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region to weaken Moscow’s position and gain leverage in negotiations.
- Russian Strategy: Slow, small-scale advances aim to exhaust Ukraine militarily and economically.
- Ukrainian Tactics: Targeting Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities, while bolstering international support.
Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, and has relied on external allies like North Korea, which reportedly sent thousands of troops to support operations.
Political Stalemate
Both nations have staked out tough negotiating positions:
- Moscow: Demands recognition of territorial annexations, Ukraine’s NATO exclusion, and Western sanctions relief.
- Kyiv: Prioritizes strong security guarantees, sovereignty, and avoiding temporary truces that allow Russia to regroup.
Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that any peace deal must respect “realities on the ground,” essentially requiring Ukraine to cede occupied territories. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while softening initial demands for full territorial restoration, remains firm on ensuring robust international support and security guarantees.
Trump’s Peace Plan
During his campaign, Trump pledged to settle the war in 24 hours, later revising the timeline to six months. His nominee for Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, has suggested a peace deal could be reached in as little as 100 days.
Kellogg dismissed European fears that Trump might reduce support for Ukraine, emphasizing a focus on preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. Observers predict Trump would pressure Putin to halt hostilities while threatening increased sanctions and expanded military aid for Ukraine if Moscow resists.
Economic and Military Strains
Russia’s economy, though bolstered by military spending, faces weakening currency values and labor shortages. Ukraine, meanwhile, grapples with recruitment shortfalls and high desertion rates, further straining its ability to sustain prolonged conflict.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment, observed, “Stabilizing the front line is essential to buying time and forcing Moscow to reassess.”
Expert Analysis
- Skepticism on Compromise: Analysts doubt Putin will abandon core war objectives, including annexed territories.
- Potential for Escalation: If Trump ramps up military aid to Ukraine, the conflict risks spilling into a broader confrontation.
- Long-Term Stakes: A comprehensive peace deal is essential to avoid future conflicts, but achieving consensus remains a formidable challenge.
Outlook
As Trump prepares to take office, his promise of peace in Ukraine faces significant hurdles. With both sides entrenched and little room for compromise, negotiations will require substantial diplomatic effort and creative solutions. Whether Trump can deliver on his pledge remains uncertain, as the war continues to reshape global geopolitics.
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