German Election Results: What They Mean for Europe’s Largest Economy & EU

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German Election Results: What They Mean for Europe’s Largest Economy & EU/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Friedrich Merz’s center-right bloc won Germany’s national election, marking a leadership shift as outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition suffered heavy losses. The far-right AfD surged to record support, especially in eastern Germany, while coalition talks between Merz and the Social Democrats loom. Ukraine can expect continued German support amid Europe’s evolving political landscape.

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany Party (AfD), arrives for a press conference in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Feb. 24, 2025, the day after the national election. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Germany Election 2025: Quick Looks at Key Takeaways

Merz’s win: Center-right Union bloc leads with 28.5%, poised to form coalition with Social Democrats
Coalition talks: Merz targets an Easter deadline; negotiations face hurdles over migration and economic policy
Far-right surge: AfD tops polls in eastern Germany, achieving 20.8% nationwide—the highest postwar far-right result
Traditional parties weaken: Combined Union and SPD support hits postwar low; SPD suffers worst-ever result at 16.4%
Youth vote shift: Left Party rebounds to 8.8% with strong appeal to young, liberal voters and savvy social media use
Ukraine support remains firm: Merz pledges to strengthen Ukraine’s defense position against Russia
Geographical divide: AfD dominance in the east contrasts with stronger mainstream support in western Germany
Scholz’s downfall: Infighting, poor communication, and policy frustrations led to SPD’s dramatic decline

German Election Results: What They Mean for Europe’s Largest Economy & EU

Deep Look

BERLIN (AP) — Germany’s national election has reshaped the political landscape of Europe’s largest economy, with center-right leader Friedrich Merz securing victory while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved historic gains. Amid weakened support for traditional parties and rising political polarization, coalition talks are now underway to form a stable government capable of addressing economic woes, migration challenges, and European unity.

1. Merz’s Win Brings Leadership Change but Faces Coalition Challenges

Friedrich Merz’s Union bloc emerged victorious with 28.5% of the vote, setting him on course to succeed Olaf Scholz as Germany’s next chancellor. To govern, Merz must form a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), with whom the Union holds a combined 328 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag.

Merz aims to finalize a deal by Easter—a tight deadline given divergent views on key issues like economic recovery and migration. While the economy has contracted for two consecutive years, both parties differ on strategies for revitalization. Merz’s push for stricter migration policies may also complicate negotiations, demanding diplomatic finesse and compromise.

Still, the path to a coalition is less complicated than feared. Early election night projections suggested a three-party alliance involving the Greens might be necessary, but Merz now appears able to avoid that scenario.

2. Far-Right AfD Surges to Second Place, Cementing Eastern Dominance

The AfD’s 20.8% nationwide showing marks the strongest postwar result for a far-right party in Germany. Its support is most pronounced in the formerly communist east, where the AfD emerged as the leading political force. This regional divide highlights ongoing disparities between eastern and western Germany, fueling political polarization.

While mainstream parties refuse to work with AfD, its surge demonstrates public frustration over migration, economic stagnation, and dissatisfaction with traditional politics. The party’s rise, however, raises questions about Germany’s future political stability and its commitment to postwar democratic norms.

3. Traditional Heavyweights Weaken Further

Germany’s postwar political landscape, long dominated by the Union and SPD, continued to erode. Their combined result was the weakest since the Federal Republic of Germany was founded in 1949.

Union bloc: 28.5% (second-worst result in history)
SPD: 16.4% (worst-ever showing)

This trend reflects growing voter disillusionment with mainstream parties and the fragmentation of German politics.

4. Left Party’s Youth-Fueled Revival Surprises Analysts

Defying expectations, the Left Party rebounded with 8.8% of the vote, after polling near the electoral threshold at the campaign’s start. Its resurgence was driven by young voters attracted to progressive policies on social justice, climate action, and taxing the wealthy.

A savvy digital strategy amplified the party’s reach, contrasting with Merz’s more traditional campaign style. Despite its gains, the Left Party remains isolated from governing coalitions, given longstanding refusals from conservatives to cooperate.

5. Ukraine Can Expect Continued German Support

Amid geopolitical tensions, Merz reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to Ukraine. “More than ever, we must put Ukraine in a position of strength,” he wrote on X, emphasizing Kyiv’s inclusion in peace talks.

Germany has been Ukraine’s second-largest arms supplier, and Merz criticized Scholz for delays in weapons deliveries. However, he remains cautious about deploying German troops for peacekeeping, calling such discussions premature.

6. Scholz’s Collapse: What Went Wrong?

Olaf Scholz’s chancellorship began with a narrow 2021 victory but quickly unraveled amid crises and internal coalition disputes. His government struggled to manage:

The Ukraine war’s economic fallout
Energy and inflation shocks
Persistent public disagreements between coalition partners

Scholz’s communication style—often seen as aloof—failed to reassure voters, and even SPD members questioned his leadership in the final months. Despite attempts at a comeback, voters overwhelmingly opted for change.