Farmers Face Major Losses as Trump’s Tariffs Take Effect

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Farmers Face Major Losses as Trump’s Tariffs Take Effect \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could cost U.S. farmers billions while raising consumer prices on produce and ground beef. While crop prices have already fallen, fertilizer costs are expected to rise, and meat producers may struggle to export products. Farmers fear long-term damage, though Trump could offer financial aid, as he did during previous trade wars.

Trump’s Tariffs Threaten U.S. Agriculture – Quick Looks

Farmers Expect Billions in Losses: The tariffs, along with foreign retaliation, could significantly impact agricultural exports.
Higher Consumer Prices Likely: Grocery costs, including beef and produce, may rise as tariffs take effect.
Short-Term Price Drops Possible: Some products may temporarily get cheaper due to reduced exports.
Trump’s Stance on Trade: The president insists the tariffs will protect American farmers despite their concerns.
Corn and Soybean Prices Drop: Crop prices have already fallen about 10% since the tariffs were announced.
Meat Industry Faces Challenges: Reduced exports could flood the U.S. market, hurting farmers but lowering some prices.
Fertilizer Costs Set to Increase: Tariffs on Canadian imports could drive up production costs for farmers.
Aid Payments a Possibility: Trump has previously provided financial support to offset trade-related losses.

Deep Look

Impact on Farmers: Billions in Potential Losses

President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are expected to cost U.S. farmers billions of dollars, disrupt exports, and potentially raise consumer grocery prices. The agricultural industry, which heavily relies on exports, is already experiencing the fallout, with corn and soybean prices dropping about 10% since the tariffs were announced.

The retaliatory tariffs from affected countries could make it harder for American farmers to sell crops and meat abroad, reducing demand and squeezing profits. Consumers, meanwhile, could soon see price hikes on imported produce and ground beef due to higher costs.

Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, warned that Trump’s comments about farmers selling more domestically were “at best tone-deaf.”

“There is no domestic market for the amount of corn, soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products that we now export in significant quantities,” Janzen said.

Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Farmers Brace for Impact

With exports accounting for a major portion of U.S. grain sales, farmers are already seeing lower prices. Some have started stockpiling equipment and fertilizer in anticipation of higher costs.

Adding to the problem, fertilizer costs are expected to rise, as 85% of the potash used in American fertilizers comes from Canada—a country now subject to Trump’s tariffs. Corey Rosenbusch, President of The Fertilizer Institute, stressed the importance of free trade, stating:

“An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trade environment between the U.S. and Canada is vital.”

Minnesota farmer Danny Lundell echoed those concerns:

“We need potash to raise healthier crops. And it doesn’t matter if you’re big, medium, or small—it’s going to affect you.”

Meat Prices: How Tariffs Could Raise Costs for Consumers

One of the biggest areas of concern is the meat industry. The United States imports lean beef from Mexico and Canada to mix with higher-fat American beef for hamburger production. With nearly half of that imported beef now facing tariffs, grocery store prices could rise within six to eight weeks.

Meanwhile, U.S. meat producers who rely on exports are bracing for potentially massive losses. In 2023 alone, the U.S. exported:

$8.4 billion in red meat
$1.8 billion in chicken

A 10% drop in exports—which agricultural economists say is likely—could lead to lower meat prices domestically as producers offload excess supply.

Prices for steak and bacon may remain stable, as they are less reliant on exports.
Hams could become cheaper in the U.S., as Mexico is one of the biggest buyers.
Specialty cuts like beef tongue may plummet in price, as they are almost exclusively sold overseas.

While livestock farmers might benefit from cheaper feed costs, they are still expected to lose money overall due to weaker export demand.

Trump’s Justification: ‘Bear With Me Again’

In his address to Congress on Tuesday night, Trump defended the tariffs, arguing that agricultural imports harm American farmers. While he acknowledged the potential hardships, he urged farmers to “bear with me again” as he pushes for trade reforms.

“I love the farmer,” Trump declared, but he did not announce any immediate aid payments to help offset their losses.

During his first term, Trump provided:

$22 billion in aid to farmers in 2019
Nearly $46 billion in 2020 (which also included pandemic relief)

It remains unclear whether similar financial assistance will be offered this time.

Economic Risks: Could Tariffs Lead to a Recession?

Economists warn that the economic impact could extend beyond agriculture. If higher food prices cause consumers to cut spending, the economy could slow down—possibly leading to a recession.

“Exactly how strong our economy is over time has a lot to do with U.S. consumers’ comfort with continuing to go out to restaurants and continuing to buy washers and dryers,” said Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University.

With grocery prices already high, including record egg prices due to a bird flu outbreak, further increases could strain household budgets.

Farmers React: Some Preparing, Others Concerned

Some farmers are stocking up on equipment and supplies ahead of anticipated price increases.

Katy Rogers, who manages an organic farm in Indiana, said she rushed to buy everything she expected to get more expensive.
Steve Kuiper, an Iowa farmer, warned that big companies like John Deere and local suppliers are already seeing reduced sales as farmers hold off on major purchases.

Despite concerns, some farmers see opportunity in expanding trade to other markets. Kuiper pointed out that China had already been favoring Brazilian corn, suggesting that farmers could look elsewhere for buyers.

However, Trump’s threat of additional tariffs on April 2 could complicate efforts to shift exports to other countries.

What Happens Next?

Farmers await possible financial aid from Trump to offset losses.
Meat prices could rise in grocery stores within two months.
Trade experts question whether tariffs are sustainable, given their impact on both farmers and consumers.
Trump’s April 2 tariff threats may further complicate global trade for U.S. agriculture.

Despite political and economic uncertainty, one thing is clear: American farmers and consumers are bracing for significant changes.