Trump Tariffs to Drive Up Grocery Store Costs Nationwide/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump’s global tariffs are poised to raise prices on imported groceries including seafood, coffee, and produce. Smaller retailers are bracing for quicker cost hikes, while consumers may face shrinkflation and reduced product variety. Experts say low-income shoppers will be hit hardest as inflation returns to supermarket aisles.
Grocery Tariff Inflation Quick Looks
- Trump’s tariffs raise prices on imported food and household essentials
- Key items affected: seafood, fruit, coffee, cheese, and packaged snacks
- Food inflation to rise 2.8%, fresh produce by 4%
- Shrinkflation and reduced product selection expected
- Small grocery stores and distributors hit hardest, pass costs quicker
- Products with foreign ingredients and packaging also affected
- Tariffs exclude Mexico and Canada due to USMCA protections
- Consumer spending shifts toward store brands and essentials
Trump Tariffs to Drive Up Grocery Store Costs Nationwide
Deep Look
Trump Tariffs Set to Make Grocery Bills More Expensive for American Shoppers
NEW YORK — April 9, 2025 — As President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs take effect across dozens of countries, one of the first places Americans will feel the economic impact is in their local grocery stores. Industry analysts, retailers, and economists are warning that prices for key supermarket items — from bananas to coffee to canned tuna — are about to rise, some within days, as the costs of imported goods climb.
Last Saturday, the administration introduced a 10% blanket tariff on all imports, followed today by steeper tariffs on 60 countries and trading blocs. This includes significant trading partners such as China, Japan, and the European Union. With most grocery stores relying on imported food and packaging materials, the fallout is widespread.
“Shoppers will start seeing it at scale across the store in the next 90 days,” said John Ross, CEO of IGA, which operates hundreds of independent grocery stores across the country. “In some cases, prices may start to climb in just a couple of weeks.”
What Items Will Cost More?
According to supermarket executives and food experts, the following categories are among the most vulnerable to price hikes:
- Seafood: Roughly 80% of U.S.-consumed seafood is imported. Tariffs are expected to immediately push up costs.
- Coffee: With almost all U.S. coffee sourced internationally, prices are likely to climb sharply.
- Fresh Produce: Fruits like bananas, berries, and citrus — much of it from Central America — are already facing tariff-driven cost increases.
- Cheese, Nuts, and Chocolates: Specialty imports from Europe and Asia are expected to reflect new pricing by mid-spring.
- Canned and Packaged Goods: Items with aluminum or plastic packaging from abroad will also rise in cost.
According to Yale University’s Budget Lab, food prices overall are expected to rise by 2.8%, with fresh produce increasing by 4%.
Smaller Retailers Feel It First
Small and mid-sized grocery chains will likely raise prices faster than retail giants like Walmart and Costco, which have more flexibility and inventory to absorb short-term shocks.
Steve Schwartz of Morton Williams grocery chain said that many small distributors, with tighter supply chains, are already reacting. One Italian supplier notified his store of a 20% price increase on olive oil and balsamic vinegar, effective next month.
Affiliated Foods, a wholesaler serving 700 independent grocery stores in eight states, has already received multiple tariff-related price hikes. Bananas sourced from Guatemala will see a 10% cost increase beginning next week.
“This adds about 4 cents per case,” CEO Randy Arceneaux noted, “but that still gets passed on to the customer.”
Even everyday items like plastic utensils and canned tuna are being impacted as suppliers reassess their pricing strategies.
The Global Supply Chain Crunch
Much of the food Americans eat is sourced globally due to crop conditions, climate, and growing limitations within the U.S. About 17% of all food and beverages consumed in the U.S. are imported, according to the USDA. Some categories are far more reliant on imports:
- 80% of seafood
- 80% of coffee
- 59% of fresh fruit
- 35% of vegetables
“Our food system is intricately linked with global markets,” said Leslie Sarasin, CEO of the Food Marketing Institute. “Tariffs will put additional pressure on price stability and year-round access to diverse foods.”
Some Relief from Canada and Mexico
One mitigating factor is that Canada and Mexico, two of the largest agricultural suppliers to the U.S., were largely spared from the most recent tariffs due to protections under the USMCA trade agreement. While 25% tariffs were levied on both countries, most food and agriculture imports remain exempt.
Still, Trump has hinted at expanding tariffs further, including on copper, lumber, semiconductors — and even prescription drugs.
Impact on Consumers and Spending Behavior
Grocery costs have already risen 23% since 2021, and many shoppers have already pulled back on non-essentials. With new tariffs now compounding inflation, some brands are reporting dips in sales.
PepsiCo, Campbell, and JM Smucker have all cited slower snack sales recently. PepsiCo reported a 3% drop in snack purchases, blaming inflation and higher borrowing costs for consumer belt-tightening.
Circana, a consumer research firm, says Americans are shifting to shorter grocery trips and favoring store-brand or budget-friendly products. “Some consumers are moving away from discretionary spending,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s chief advisor.
Even household basics like dish soap, paper towels, and personal care items are seeing slower movement on store shelves.
Gary Millerchip, CFO of Costco, noted that shoppers are still spending, but with a tighter focus. “They’re being very choiceful where they’re spending.”
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