Amid the Ukraine crisis, where are the Gulf countries?
The world is nervous about the Ukraine standoff. The US administration warns of the “distinct possibility” of Russia taking military action against Ukraine next month. At the same time, the leadership in Moscow sees “little ground for optimism” in terms of resolving this crisis following Washington’s rejections of the Kremlin’s key demands. With tensions simmering, it is unclear how this dangerous situation will play out.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are not playing major roles in the Russia-Ukraine border crisis. Nonetheless, they are all important US partners. While Washington seeks to gather support among its allies and friends worldwide as the US and most of its NATO allies confront the Russians while giving greater support to Kyiv, the question of where GCC members stand is worthy of discussion.
For most Gulf Arab countries, there is a strong desire to avoid taking any firm or public stance on this crisis. These Arabian monarchies have good relations with Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow. Siding too strongly one way could harm their ties with either the West or with Russia. Within this context, the Saudis, Omanis, and Kuwaitis are putting out statements calling for diplomatic solutions to the Ukrainian crisis or simply remaining quiet observers of this standoff.
On January 25, Oman’s Foreign Ministry expressed Muscat’s “concern over the developments surrounding the Ukrainian crisis and the repercussions of escalation in that region” and urged countries worldwide to “exert further diplomatic efforts to overcome this crisis in accordance with the principles of international law and human values.”
One day later, as the fifth US-Kuwaiti Strategic Dialogue was wrapping up, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the Ukrainian crisis with his Kuwaiti counterpart, Sheikh Ahmed Nasser Al Sabah. As America’s chief diplomat put it, the Kuwaitis understand the need for a global response to the Russia-Ukraine standoff “better than anyone”—an attempt to invoke Kuwait’s experience during the 1990/1991 Iraqi invasion and occupation. Yet Kuwaiti officials have refrained from using strong language or taking any actions against Russian conduct in or near Ukraine.
This month Blinken has also addressed the Ukrainian crisis with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Yet, like their counterparts in Muscat and Kuwait City, officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have refused to firmly side with the US against Russia in relation to this standoff.
“The Emiratis will probably play a game of neutrality because they don’t want to antagonize what they have built [with Vladimir Putin’s government] and the synergies they’ve created with the Russians in other conflicts—particularly in Yemen, Syria, and Libya,” Dr. Andreas Krieg, an assistant professor at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, told Newslooks. “The UAE is pushing back against the idea that their relationship with the US is exclusive.”
As Abu Dhabi has done much to further diversify its security partnerships to become less dependent on Washington, the UAE’s relationships with Russia and China have both become increasingly important to the Emiratis. Perceiving the US as a declining hegemon while seeing Moscow and Beijing as rising powers in the Middle East and other regions, Abu Dhabi is keen to avoid taking actions that could upset either Russia or China.
“On an ideological, value-based approach, the UAE [aligns] much closer to the Russian camp than they are to the US camp, and that’s particularly true for Syria and Libya,” said Dr. Krieg. “We can’t expect that as the US is rallying its partners around the flag that the UAE will take any stance on this. The UAE might even take a more pro-Russia stance, but that remains to be seen.”
As Qatar often constitutes an outlier in the GCC, experts contend that this might be the case regarding the serious situation in Ukraine. When discussing Doha and the Russia-Ukraine standoff, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) element is critical. The US is hoping to see the Qataris redirect LNG deliveries from East Asia to Europe if Russia weaponizes its gas exports to Europe to increase Moscow’s leverage over NATO countries such as Germany which are highly dependent on Russia’s natural gas, or if new sanctions are imposed on Moscow. There are some open questions about the feasibility of such a plan, especially considering that Qatar has little spare capacity which could be delivered to Europe. Also, it is not clear what customers in East Asia would agree to in terms of redirecting LNG exports to Europe. On the final day of this month, when the Emir of Qatar will be the first GCC head of state to visit Washington during Biden’s presidency, these difficult questions will be addressed.
From a geopolitical standpoint, Qatar is much more aligned with the NATO camp against Russia’s foreign policy agenda compared to the UAE. If push comes to shove, Doha could be counted on to support the West, not Russia, in this crisis.
“The Qataris favor the US and European stance,” explained Dr. Krieg. “They don’t really take into consideration whether the Russians would like it or not. It’s not really something the Qataris are thinking about. In terms of geopolitics, the Qataris are very much on the American side and stand with NATO on this whole issue of escalation in Ukraine.”
It is also important to see Doha’s positioning vis-à-vis Ukraine within the context of the Qatari-Turkish alliance. As Ankara has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, underscored by Turkish drone sales to Kyiv, it is logical to see Doha aligning with the Turks when it comes to defending Ukraine’s sovereignty. Although Qatar does not necessarily side with Ankara automatically on all foreign policy issues, the two countries have leaders who have seen eye-to-eye on many regional and international files from Syria to Libya and many more. This contrasts with the UAE, which geopolitically speaking, has moved quite close to Russia in recent years.
Ultimately, Qatar is proving to be the only GCC state that is willing to stand in support of western governments against Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine. The fact that none of the other five Gulf Arab monarchies have done so speaks volumes about the extent to which Moscow has established itself as a power which Gulf states see as too important to risk angering.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Newslooks.com
