AP-NORC poll Middle East/ Israel conflict poll/ U.S. voter opinions Israel/ Middle East conflict U.S. view/ Iran sanctions poll/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ An AP-NORC poll finds Americans divided on Israel’s role in the Middle East conflict, with Democrats and Republicans split on responsibility and U.S. involvement. While most support sanctions on Iran, there is minimal public backing for deploying U.S. troops. Concern about regional escalation remains high, but fewer worry about direct U.S. involvement.
U.S. Opinions on Israel’s Responsibility: Quick Looks
- Regional conflict concerns: Half of American voters fear Middle East tensions could lead to broader war.
- Blame for escalation: Most voters blame Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, while views on Israel’s role differ by party.
- Sanctions over military aid: While many support Iran sanctions, there is minimal backing for sending U.S. troops.
- Mixed views on U.S. cease-fire role: Americans are divided on the extent of U.S. engagement in cease-fire efforts.
AP-NORC Poll: Democrats, Republicans Differ on Middle East Escalation
Deep Look
A recent AP-NORC poll reveals a deep divide among American voters on Israel’s responsibility for the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict, highlighting differing perspectives between Democrats and Republicans on U.S. involvement and policy responses. As hostilities continue, Americans remain concerned about the potential for an all-out regional war, though relatively fewer worry about direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.
Concerns Over Conflict Escalation
Roughly half of U.S. voters surveyed expressed significant concern over the Middle East conflict evolving into a regional war, reflecting anxiety across both party lines. Despite these concerns, only around 40% of voters worry that the United States could become entangled in a broader Middle Eastern conflict. Notably, the poll was conducted just prior to an Israeli military strike on Iranian bases, a development that may impact public opinion moving forward.
Partisan Divide on Israel’s Role in Escalation
The survey indicates significant partisan differences regarding Israel’s responsibility for the conflict’s recent escalation. While a majority of voters attribute the escalation primarily to Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah, views on Israel’s role are sharply divided along party lines. Approximately 60% of Democrats believe the Israeli government bears significant responsibility for escalating hostilities—similar to the percentage who hold Hamas accountable—whereas only about 25% of Republicans share this view. Both parties largely agree on assigning responsibility to Iran and Hezbollah, with six in ten voters from each side identifying these groups as central contributors to the conflict.
U.S. Involvement: Sanctions Over Military Aid
The poll also highlights limited support for U.S. military involvement, with voters favoring economic sanctions over direct assistance to Israel’s military. Over half of voters—55%—support economic sanctions on Iran to hinder financial support to Hezbollah and Hamas, reflecting a preference for indirect measures over direct intervention. However, voters are split on the U.S. government providing weapons to Israel, and a majority oppose sending U.S. government funds for direct military aid.
Deploying U.S. troops to support Israel’s military finds little support among the American public. Around 50% oppose sending troops, while only 20% are in favor. The rest are neutral on the issue. This reluctance spans party lines, with voters across the political spectrum preferring measures that do not involve American boots on the ground.
U.S. Role in Cease-Fire Efforts
The poll also sheds light on how Americans view the U.S. role in negotiating a cease-fire in the conflict. About half of those surveyed feel that the U.S. is doing “about as much as it can” to push for a cease-fire between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, 30% of voters believe the U.S. could be doing more, while 20% feel it should be doing less.
Republicans are more inclined to reduce U.S. involvement in cease-fire negotiations, with 30% saying the U.S. should do less, compared to only 10% of Democrats. Roughly 60% of Democrats feel the U.S. is doing all it can to encourage peace, compared to 40% of Republicans who hold this view. Independents are similarly divided, with some suggesting that more should be done to support a cease-fire but largely opposing any increased military action.
A Major Campaign Issue
The Middle East conflict has emerged as a pivotal issue in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, especially as candidates seek to engage Jewish and Muslim voters in key battleground states. Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have intensified their messaging on foreign policy and conflict resolution as the campaign progresses in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where these issues resonate deeply with specific communities.
The AP-NORC poll captures a snapshot of American sentiment on this complex issue, revealing a preference for sanctions and diplomatic measures over military involvement and underscoring the nuanced, divided opinions that voters hold on foreign policy. As the conflict and U.S. election continue to unfold, views on these matters may evolve, influenced by both the trajectory of the Middle East conflict and the messages coming from U.S. leadership.
