AP-NORC Poll: U.S. Voters Fear Post-Election Violence, Result Challenges

AP-NORC poll/ voter concerns/ election violence/ democracy/ post-election disputes/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AP-NORC poll highlights significant voter anxiety about post-election violence, challenges to election results, and threats to U.S. democracy. Concerns span the potential for physical unrest, refusal to concede, and manipulation of election outcomes. The survey reveals deep partisan divides on who might weaken democracy, with many worried about both candidates’ impacts.

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Voter Concerns Over Post-Election Turmoil: Quick Look

• Poll Overview: AP-NORC poll shows widespread voter concern about election integrity.
• Key Findings: 4 in 10 voters fear violence and legal disputes post-election.
• Trump’s Stance: Many believe Trump may refuse to concede if he loses.
• Electoral College Concerns: Divided views on its role and fairness in elections.
• Partisan Views: Democrats, Republicans disagree on who poses more of a threat to democracy.

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AP-NORC Poll: U.S. Voters Fear Post-Election Violence, Result Challenges

Deep Look

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, U.S. voters are increasingly anxious about potential unrest, post-election challenges, and the security of democracy, according to a new AP-NORC poll. The survey reflects the public’s concern that the country might witness disruptive efforts to overturn results or even violent incidents, a fear that resonates especially among those who recall the turmoil following the 2020 election and the January 6 Capitol attack.

Conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the poll shows that about 4 in 10 registered voters are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to challenge the results after the November election. A similar proportion worry about possible legal efforts to overturn the outcome, and roughly one-third fear interference from state or local officials to prevent vote certification.

Trump’s persistent claims of election fraud, which he began as early as his 2016 campaign, have influenced voter perspectives. He has stated that any loss in the upcoming election could only occur if it were “rigged” against him, reinforcing doubts among his supporters. Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results led to the Capitol riot in January 2021, an event that continues to shape voter apprehension today. His allies and the Republican National Committee, heavily influenced by his leadership, have already filed multiple lawsuits nationwide—a strategy some voters fear will serve as a foundation for challenging the results if he loses.

One respondent, Aostara Kaye of Downey, California, shared her unease about Trump’s continued influence. “I thought after January 6, the GOP would reject him. Instead, it’s only emboldened him,” she said.

Widespread Concerns Over Refusal to Concede

The poll found that nearly 9 in 10 voters believe the losing candidate in a presidential election is duty-bound to concede once votes are counted and legal challenges resolved, with a strong majority of Republicans agreeing. However, only about one-third of voters think Trump would concede if he lost, reflecting a partisan divide: two-thirds of Republican voters believe he would accept defeat, whereas just 1 in 10 Democrats think so.

In contrast, nearly 8 in 10 voters expressed confidence that Kamala Harris would concede if she lost, including most Republican respondents. This disparity underscores fears that a contested Trump loss could trigger challenges to the electoral process, further heightening political tensions.

Ideological Divides on Democracy’s Future

When asked about democracy’s future, respondents were divided along partisan lines. Half of voters believe another Trump term would weaken U.S. democracy significantly, while 4 in 10 voiced similar concerns about a Harris presidency. Approximately 80% of Republicans view a Trump win as likely to strengthen democracy, compared to a similar share of Democrats who feel that way about Harris.

The ideological rift runs deep. Democratic voter Kaye sees Trump as an “existential threat to the Constitution,” worrying that he might dismantle institutional “guardrails” to cement power. Conversely, Debra Apodaca, a Republican voter from Tucson, Arizona, voiced concern about Harris, arguing that her policies prioritize foreign aid over addressing American needs, including a strong Border Patrol presence, which she believes would be undermined under Harris.

January 6 Attack as a Dividing Line

The January 6 Capitol attack remains a focal point in voters’ views on democracy. Democratic and independent voters tend to place significant blame on Trump for the event, with many concerned that misinformation could lead to another attempt at disrupting the democratic process. Independent voter Susan Ohde, from Chicago, warned that “misinformation” could mobilize supporters to take extreme action, as seen in the Capitol attack.

Others, however, such as GOP voter Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi from California, are more concerned about economic issues like inflation and business retention. Minardi believes Harris would foster dependency on government rather than fostering economic growth, which she argues has been exacerbated by California’s high cost of living and reliance on government programs.

Electoral College Sparks Debate

The poll also shed light on ongoing debates over the Electoral College. Many voters see the system as outdated, with half believing it’s a “major problem” that a candidate could win the presidency without a popular vote majority. The partisan split is clear, with about two-thirds of Democrats viewing the Electoral College as problematic, compared to just one-third of Republicans.

For some Democrats, the Electoral College represents an undemocratic aspect of American elections. Debra Christensen, a Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, questioned why, given modern technology, the U.S. continues with a system that doesn’t reflect a straightforward “one person, one vote” approach.

Poll Methodology and Demographics

The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,072 adults from October 11-14, 2024, using NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, which aims to represent the U.S. population. For registered voters, the poll has a margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points, reflecting a snapshot of American perspectives during this high-stakes election.

As Election Day nears, these poll results capture a nation grappling with fears over election integrity, political violence, and the enduring divisions shaped by recent history. With such strong partisan divides, the outcome and aftermath of this election may be closely watched and deeply impactful on America’s democratic fabric.

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