AP VoteCast: Economy, Immigration Key in Trump’s Win

AP VoteCast: Economy, Immigration Key in Trump’s Win \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Donald Trump’s successful bid for the presidency in 2024 was largely driven by deep economic anxieties among middle-class voters, as highlighted by AP VoteCast’s survey of over 120,000 voters. Voters worried about their financial stability and inflation were more likely to back Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, who focused her campaign on democratic ideals and abortion rights.

Economic Concerns and Trump’s 2024 Win Quick Looks

• Economic Anxiety: Trump’s return to the White House was fueled by voters facing economic stress, including inflation and rising costs.
• Middle-Class Priorities: AP VoteCast revealed that Trump gained traction among middle and lower-income voters without college degrees, who prioritized financial issues.
• Immigration Stance: Hardline immigration policies resonated with Trump voters, with increased support for stricter deportation measures.
• Democratic Strategy: Harris focused on issues like democracy and abortion rights, which fell behind economic priorities for many voters.
• College Divide: Trump solidified his majority among non-college-educated voters, while Harris found more support among higher-income and college-educated voters.

Deep Look

In a significant electoral comeback, President-elect Donald Trump leveraged widespread economic concerns to secure victory in the 2024 presidential race. A sweeping AP VoteCast survey of more than 120,000 voters underscored how economic distress, particularly fears about inflation and everyday expenses, played a central role in Trump’s triumph over Vice President Kamala Harris. The findings highlighted that many Americans felt economically vulnerable, which pushed them to align with Trump’s policies and promises.

Economic Concerns as a Decisive Factor

Economic unease among voters proved to be a crucial advantage for Trump. The proportion of voters who reported their family finances were “falling behind” increased to about 3 in 10, up from 2 in 10 in 2020. Trump decisively captured this group, which viewed issues like food prices, housing costs, and healthcare expenses as pressing concerns. Among those who prioritized inflation as their main voting issue, nearly twice as many backed Trump compared to Harris. Similarly, about 60% of voters who identified the economy and jobs as the nation’s top problem supported Trump.

The divide between higher-income and lower-income voters was notable, with Trump making gains among those earning less than $100,000 annually. Meanwhile, Harris maintained steady support among voters with household incomes above that threshold. For middle and lower-income voters without college degrees, economic anxieties and a sense of falling behind fueled their preference for Trump’s leadership, despite acknowledging doubts about whether he truly championed their interests.

Immigration Policies and Shifts in Voter Attitudes

Trump’s hardline stance on illegal immigration found renewed support in 2024, resonating with a substantial segment of the electorate. AP VoteCast showed that more than 4 in 10 voters believed immigrants in the U.S. illegally should be deported, up from around 3 in 10 in 2020. This increase was seen even among typically pro-immigration groups, where support for allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status dropped to about 6 in 10, down from three-quarters four years prior.

In states like Ohio, where Trump amplified concerns about immigration with controversial rhetoric, three-quarters of voters viewed undocumented immigrants as more harmful than beneficial to their state. While nearly all Trump voters held this view, more than half of Harris voters shared it as well, underscoring a shift in sentiment that transcended party lines.

Harris found stronger backing among immigrants and younger voters who favored more progressive immigration policies. However, even within these groups, a notable portion—around 4 in 10—agreed that undocumented immigrants should be deported, reflecting complex attitudes about immigration’s impact on communities.

Support Among Non-College Educated Voters

Trump solidified his appeal among non-college-educated voters, a demographic that has become a key part of his base. Over half of voters in 2024 reported not having a college degree, and Trump secured a clear majority within this group, slightly improving on his 2020 performance against Joe Biden. This contrasted with Harris’s support, which was stronger among college-educated voters and higher-income earners.

Although Harris and Biden campaigned on expanding opportunities for non-college workers, such as removing degree requirements for government jobs, their message failed to resonate as intended. The electorate prioritized economic stability and policies addressing financial strain, overshadowing Harris’s focus on democracy and social issues like abortion rights. Her campaign aimed to energize voters with these topics but struggled to shift focus away from economic distress, which dominated voter concerns.

Challenges for the Democratic Strategy

Harris’s approach, which leaned on rallying support through progressive stances on democracy and reproductive rights, failed to eclipse the economic worries driving the electorate. While she garnered strong backing from college-educated voters and higher-income individuals, the broader coalition she needed did not fully materialize. Trump’s emphasis on economic resilience and immigration control found fertile ground among voters anxious about their financial security and community well-being.

The 2024 race showed a clear divide: those who felt economically vulnerable overwhelmingly sided with Trump, while voters more confident in their financial situation leaned toward Harris. Even though nearly half of voters indicated they felt Trump did not look out for “people like them,” their economic concerns took precedence, resulting in support for his return to office.

Future Outlook

Trump’s 2024 victory, buoyed by economic discontent and strict immigration stances, marks a shift in voter priorities that could shape future political strategies. For Democrats, the challenge lies in reconnecting with middle and lower-income voters and addressing economic anxieties more effectively. Harris’s campaign highlighted the limitations of focusing on social issues when economic pressures weigh heavily on the electorate.

The implications of this election suggest that both parties may need to recalibrate their messages to balance economic solutions with other policy priorities to build broader coalitions. The question moving forward is how these dynamics will influence policy decisions in Trump’s administration and how Democrats will regroup to appeal to a diverse, economically driven voter base.

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