Voter demographics 2024/ Trump gains with minority voters/ AP VoteCast election insights/ demographic voting trends/ key voting groups 2024/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ AP VoteCast’s analysis of the 2024 election reveals Donald Trump expanded his base by gaining support among traditionally Democratic groups, including Black, Hispanic, and female voters. Trump’s outreach to younger Black men and Hispanic voters helped secure his win, while Kamala Harris struggled to achieve significant gains. The survey provides insights into how demographic shifts influenced the election outcome.
“How Key Demographics Voted in 2024 Quick Looks”
- Trump’s Base Stays Strong: Trump retained strong support from his core white base, with over 80% of his voters identifying as white.
- Inroads with Black Voters: Trump made notable gains among young Black men, doubling his support with Black men under 45.
- Hispanic Voter Shift: Harris won most Hispanic votes, though Trump gained slightly among Hispanic men compared to 2020.
- Narrow Gains Among Women: Trump modestly improved his support with women, narrowing the gender gap slightly from 2020.
- Modest Gains Among Men: Trump saw incremental increases with men, particularly among younger voters of color.
AP VoteCast: Voting Trends Across 5 Key Demographics in 2024
Deep Look
AP VoteCast’s extensive survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide highlights how Donald Trump built a successful coalition in the 2024 election, drawing support from key demographics that have traditionally leaned Democratic. Trump’s outreach to Black and Hispanic voters, along with modest gains among women, contributed to his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris struggled to make significant inroads with Trump’s base, which held steady and expanded slightly into traditionally Democratic voter groups.
Here’s a closer look at how five key demographic groups voted in the 2024 election, according to AP VoteCast:
1. White Voters White voters once again made up the majority of Trump’s base, continuing a trend from the 2020 election. Over 80% of Trump’s supporters identified as white, showing minimal change in support since his last campaign. Approximately two-thirds of Harris’s voters were white, mirroring the coalition that backed President Joe Biden in 2020. White voters comprised a large portion of the U.S. electorate and did not significantly shift their support at the national level.
Trump maintained his majority among white voters, with about 60% of white voters backing him compared to approximately 40% for Harris. Trump’s lead among white voters held in pivotal states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states he narrowly lost in 2020. These results suggest that Trump’s base remained steadfast, with minimal defection to Harris.
2. Black Voters Trump’s performance among Black voters, who represent roughly 10% of the electorate, improved slightly, largely driven by younger Black men. Nationally, about 8 in 10 Black voters cast their ballots for Harris, down from the 9 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. While the majority of Black voters remained loyal to Harris, Trump nearly doubled his support among Black men under 45, with around 3 in 10 in this group voting for him—a substantial increase from 2020.
These gains illustrate Trump’s success in appealing to younger Black men, a demographic traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. Harris’s inability to hold onto this group in full may have been a critical factor in Trump’s victory, as younger voters in general are increasingly viewed as key swing voters.
3. Hispanic Voters Hispanic voters, another pivotal demographic, leaned slightly more toward Trump compared to 2020. While Harris maintained support from over half of Hispanic voters, her share was down from the approximately 60% that backed Biden. Hispanic men were particularly open to Trump, with around half supporting Harris compared to roughly 60% who backed Biden in the previous election.
Trump’s incremental gains among Hispanic voters reflect a growing trend of conservative support within this group, especially among men. This shift could indicate that issues such as economic policy, border security, and social values played a role in changing Hispanic voter preferences.
4. Women Voters Trump also made narrow gains among women voters, although Harris still won a majority of female support. Harris secured 53% of women’s votes to Trump’s 46%, a slimmer margin than Biden’s 2020 results, where 55% of women supported him. Trump’s steady support among white women, with just over half backing him, remained consistent from the previous election.
The narrowing gender gap suggests Trump’s messaging resonated with certain segments of female voters. While women have traditionally leaned Democratic, Trump’s slight gains with women indicate that his campaign’s economic and social policies may have appealed to a broader base than in previous years.
5. Men Voters Trump’s support among men also increased slightly, adding to his overall advantage. The shift in male support was particularly noticeable among younger voters and men of color, groups where Trump made modest but impactful gains. White male voters, along with older male voters, displayed similar voting patterns to 2020, maintaining Trump’s advantage among these demographics.
The gender shifts in voting trends illustrate a complex realignment within certain demographic groups, with younger voters of color showing increased openness to Trump’s policies compared to the previous election.
AP VoteCast Methodology
AP VoteCast, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for several major news outlets, is one of the most comprehensive surveys of the American electorate. This year’s survey included over 120,000 voters and took place over eight days, concluding as polls closed. Voter interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish and represent a blend of random sampling from state voter files, NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, and selected non-probability online panels. The survey’s margin of sampling error is approximately ±0.4 percentage points.
For more on AP VoteCast’s methodology, visit AP VoteCast Methodology.
