Assad’s Regime in Crisis: Syrian Rebels Gain Ground Rapidly

Assad’s Regime in Crisis: Syrian Rebels Gain Ground Rapidly \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Syria faces a new chapter of instability as opposition forces, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed militias, approach Damascus after capturing major cities like Aleppo and Hama. The government controls only four of 14 provincial capitals, and rebels have also mobilized in the south. With Assad’s forces retreating and allies distracted, the future remains uncertain. U.N. officials are urging urgent political discussions to address the escalating crisis.

Syria Crisis Escalation: Quick Looks

• Rebel Surge: Opposition forces capture Aleppo and Hama, marking a rapid advance toward Damascus.
• HTS Leadership: Abu Mohammed al-Golani leads HTS in a mission to overthrow Assad’s government.
• Southern Instability: Sweida and Daraa see renewed anti-government activity, weakening Assad’s control.
• Fragile Alliances: Potential discord between HTS and Turkish-backed militias may shape post-Assad Syria.
• Global Concerns: The U.N. calls for immediate talks as Syria’s civil war reaches a critical stage.

Deep Look

Rebels Advance on Damascus: Syria’s Civil War Takes a New Turn

Syria’s long-standing civil war, now in its thirteenth year, has taken a dramatic and unexpected turn. Opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), are advancing rapidly toward Damascus, threatening the stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. This offensive has shattered the status quo, forcing Assad’s forces to retreat from key regions and exposing the vulnerabilities of a regime already weakened by years of conflict.

The scale and speed of the offensive, which began on November 27, have caught many by surprise. Rebels quickly seized Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and Hama, a central city of strategic importance. For the first time since 2018, Damascus itself is under direct threat. The Syrian government now controls only four of the country’s 14 provincial capitals, a testament to its diminished territorial control and waning military capacity.

HTS and the Reignited Fight Against Assad

At the forefront of this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an insurgent group with roots in al-Qaida. While HTS has been labeled a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and the United Nations, it has sought to rebrand itself in recent years. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS has focused on establishing civilian governance in territories under its control while continuing its military campaigns.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, al-Golani stated that HTS’s ultimate goal is the overthrow of Assad’s government. This marks a critical moment in Syria’s civil war, as opposition forces aim to deliver a decisive blow to Assad’s regime after years of stalemate.

Allied but Divided: The Opposition’s Fragile Unity

While HTS and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army are cooperating in the current offensive, their alliance is far from stable. The SNA’s primary focus is establishing a buffer zone near the Turkish border to counter Kurdish forces, aligning with Ankara’s interests. Turkey, which has historically supported opposition groups against Assad, has recently advocated for reconciliation with the Syrian government, a position that complicates its role in the conflict.

The potential for discord between HTS and the SNA looms large. Should they succeed in toppling Assad, the question of governance and territorial control could reignite infighting among these factions. Such divisions could create further instability in a region already marked by fragmentation and competing interests.

Southern Syria Joins the Fight

The rebellion is not confined to northern Syria. In the southern provinces of Sweida and Daraa, anti-government activity has surged. Sweida, home to Syria’s Druze minority, has long been a center of dissent against Assad. In recent months, the region has seen renewed protests and the rise of armed groups challenging government control.

Daraa, widely regarded as the birthplace of the 2011 uprising, is also experiencing a resurgence of rebel activity. Though the region had been relatively quiet following a Russian-mediated ceasefire in 2018, opposition forces have regained footholds, adding to the pressure on Assad’s government.

Assad’s Strategic Dilemma

Facing mounting challenges on multiple fronts, Assad’s regime is at a critical juncture. Opposition forces are reportedly encircling Damascus, with the insurgent commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani describing this as the “final stage” of their offensive. Meanwhile, government troops have withdrawn from southern provinces to reinforce positions in Homs, a city that serves as a vital link between Damascus and the coastal regions where Assad retains significant support.

Losing Homs would have profound implications. Not only would it sever critical supply lines, but it could also signal the fragmentation of Syria as a unified state. For many observers, this represents a “red line” that could mark the beginning of the end for Assad’s regime.

International and Regional Implications

As the conflict escalates, Assad finds himself increasingly isolated. Russia and Iran, his key allies, are preoccupied with other geopolitical crises, while Hezbollah, a critical supporter, has been weakened by its recent conflict with Israel. Turkey, despite its historical support for opposition forces, has distanced itself from the current offensive, underscoring the complexity of regional dynamics.

The United Nations has called for urgent political talks to address the rapidly evolving situation. Geir Pedersen, the U.N. envoy for Syria, has emphasized the need for an “orderly political transition” and has sought to bring key stakeholders, including Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, to the negotiating table.

The Road Ahead

As rebel forces tighten their grip, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. Assad’s ability to rally his forces and defend Damascus will be a decisive factor in the coming weeks. However, with diminished resources, strained alliances, and growing opposition, the odds appear stacked against his regime.

The potential collapse of Assad’s government raises critical questions about what comes next. Will opposition forces succeed in establishing a unified front, or will internal divisions lead to further chaos? As international actors weigh their options, one thing is clear: the stakes in Syria’s civil war have never been higher.

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