Despite What Polls May Say, the 2024 Election Is Not Yet Decided

The 2024 election is less than a year away, but it is still along way away. In just under a year, a lot can happen. But at least as of today, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are historically unpopular. A number of different polls have Biden’s approval rating at only 39%. And the percentage of Americans who disapprove is at 58%. Kamala’s numbers are no better. Whether it is the handling of he economy or foreign policy or border security, the Biden Administration has historically low approval and historically high disapproval. These numbers have many Democrats concerned about the election outcome in 2024.
 
Gavin Newsom, the California Governor who is most often suggested as a possible replacement for Biden at the top of the ticket, has his own approval problems in his home state where only 44% approve and nearly half disapprove. And Californians are voting with their feet and fleeing California in record numbers. Since 2020, California has been shrinking every year. So this is another data point that Gavin Newsom’s leadership is not popular.  Imagine quitting your job and selling your home and moving to another state just to get away from the dictatorial rule of a failed governor.  Hundreds of thousands of Californians are doing that.
 
But as grim as things may look now for the Democrats, the truth is it is hard to predict election outcomes a year in advance. I can remember when it looked like Bill Clinton’s goose was cooked and he couldn’t win reelection. I can also remember when Barrack Obama’s chances of reelection looked grim. But we saw both of these so-called “unpopular” Democrats rebound and win re-election.
 
None of this is to say that Joe Biden will win in 2024. It is to say that we can’t confidently predict election outcomes a year out. If you’re watching a football game and at halftime, your team is down by two touchdowns, it doesn’t mean your team will lose for sure. We’ve all seen teams comeback and win in such circumstances and the same thing can happen in politics.
 
I don’t say this because I hope that Joe Biden rebounds and wins or that Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom replace him and end up winning.  I am weary of failed leadership. It has cost us dearly as a nation. We’ve seen runaway inflation make Americans substantially poorer.  We’ve seen misguided and foolish energy policy make America weaker and poorer and empower many of our adversaries. We’ve seen a weak and feckless foreign policy embolden the world’s dictators and terrorists and increase the risks of world war.  We’ve seen a wide open border for three years contribute to increased crime, drugs, and violence in our streets as well as heightened risks of terrorism as well as the budgetary problems created by dealing with more than 8 million illegal border crossings.
 
We’ve seen a White House that thinks telling us “Bidenomics is working” and using focus group tested slogans is a good replacement for a strong economy that is actually growing at a robust pace while the cost of living remains stable rather than skyrocketing. We’ve also seen parents who are concerned about their children’s education and safety at public schools labeled domestic terrorists. And we’ve seen the Biden Administration use the power of government to bully and intimidate law-abiding Americans into silence.
 
And Gavin Newsom will be no different. He comes from the same school of failed political leadership as Joe Biden where truth is something to be made up for political gain. For example, he falsely claimed that a “city in Tennessee has banned being gay in public” and then he said “We have to call this out” as if he is some sort of truth teller. But it is no surprise to those who have been following Gavin Newsom’s career, that this was false. He’s done the same thing claiming that other governors are passing hateful laws designed to start a culture war. Yet it is Gavin Newsom and the Biden Administration that have been working overtime to create a culture war and a war on women — telling women that their sports, scholarships, locker rooms, and bathrooms must be open to biological men; and if women don’t like it, they need to be subjected to forced re-education.
 
Biden, Kamala and Gavin all deserve their poor approval ratings. They’ve worked long and hard to achieve them. But we still don’t know what it means for the 2024 election. That remains to be seen. That means Democrats shouldn’t assume that the election is already lost and Republicans shouldn’t assume that the election is already won. Who wins or loses will be decided in the coming months and ultimately almost a year from now. It is too early to write the final election 2024 story. This highlights the importance of a robust election debate on a national scale so that we can sort out what direction the nation should take.