Azerbaijan Airlines crash/ Russian air defense suspected/ Kazakhstan plane crash/ Grozny drone attacks/ Embraer 190 tragedy/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Aviation experts suspect Russian air defense fire caused the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 and injuring 29. Preliminary findings suggest missile fragments hit the aircraft’s tail, possibly mistaking it for a drone amid Ukrainian drone activity in the region. Azerbaijan is observing a day of mourning as investigations continue, while calls grow for Russia to explain the tragedy.
Azerbaijan Plane Crash: Quick Looks
- Incident Details:
- The Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan, before crashing.
- 38 fatalities and 29 survivors were reported.
- Suspected Cause:
- Aviation experts point to Russian air defense fire, citing missile-like shrapnel damage to the tail section.
- Allegations stem from nearby Ukrainian drone attacks in Grozny.
- Global Reactions:
- Azerbaijan’s government demands accountability and compensation from Russia.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged patience for investigative findings.
Experts Say Russian Air Defense Fire Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash
Deep Look
Crash Details and Immediate Response
The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, carrying 67 passengers and crew, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after being diverted from its original route between Baku and Grozny. Cellphone footage showed the plane descending sharply before erupting in flames upon impact, with its fuselage shattered and lying upside down in a grassy field.
Suspicions of Russian Involvement
- Expert Analysis:
- Mark Zee of OPSGroup stated there’s a “90-99% probability” that a surface-to-air missile, such as the Pantsyr-S1 system, struck the plane.
- Independent Russian military analyst Yan Matveyev observed tail damage consistent with missile shrapnel.
- Regional Context:
- Ukrainian drones have recently targeted Grozny and other North Caucasus regions. Chechnya’s security forces claimed to have intercepted drones in the area on the day of the crash.
Political Fallout and Accountability Calls
Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov demanded a formal apology and compensation from Russia, warning of potential diplomatic consequences. The Caliber news outlet, known for its government ties, criticized Russian authorities for failing to secure airspace during a drone raid and questioned why the damaged plane wasn’t allowed to land at Grozny or other nearby Russian airports.
In response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov advised against drawing conclusions before the investigation concludes. Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker Maulen Ashimbayev echoed the call for restraint, describing the air defense allegations as “unfounded and unethical.”
Questions Linger
While investigators analyze the wreckage, questions remain about the flight crew’s decision to divert across the Caspian Sea to Aktau instead of attempting an emergency landing in Russia. Experts suggest the crew may have believed the plane was operable despite significant damage or faced restrictions from Russian authorities.
Victims and Survivors
The passengers included 42 Azerbaijanis, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals. Russia’s Emergency Ministry has transported nine survivors to Moscow for treatment.
Key Stats
- Fatalities: 38
- Survivors: 29, with injuries
- Probable Cause: Surface-to-air missile strike
