Fight for Congress: Senate and House Races in Dead Heat

Congressional elections 2024/ Senate races/ House races/ control of Congress/ midterm elections/ Kamala Harris/ Donald Trump/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ In the closing days before the U.S. election, both parties are ramping up efforts to win control of Congress. While Senate races are tight across multiple states, the House remains a toss-up. With high voter turnout and extensive campaign funding, the outcome will shape how the next administration can govern.

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Last Push in Tight Congressional Races: Quick Looks

• Congressional Control: House and Senate races remain highly competitive, with both chambers up for grabs.
• Senate Races: Key Senate battles in states like Montana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could tip control.
• House Focus: Republicans and Democrats are making final pushes in districts in New York, California, and other swing areas.
• Campaign Momentum: Both parties are energizing supporters with record-high campaign spending and star-studded rallies.
• Potential Outcome: A flip in both chambers to opposing parties would be historically rare.

Fight for Congress: Senate and House Races in Dead Heat

Deep Look

As the U.S. heads into the final stretch before Election Day, both parties are locked in a fierce contest for control of Congress. The stakes are high, with the Senate and House of Representatives up for grabs. This election will determine whether the next White House administration can rely on Congressional allies or contend with a divided government.

In these final days, candidates across the country are engaging voters with last-minute rallies, door-knocking, and media outreach to sway undecided voters. Many races are so close that either party could gain control. With tight Senate races in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Montana and House campaigns spread across districts in New York and California, the outcome remains unpredictable.

Senate Races: GOP’s Push to Take Control

Republicans have a significant chance to flip the Senate, thanks largely to a carefully selected roster of candidates backed by party leader Mitch McConnell. These candidates face off against incumbent Democrats in close races, particularly in Montana, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is fighting to retain his seat. The GOP also has its sights on the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Late shifts in polling have added uncertainty to the Senate map. For example, in Texas, Democrat Colin Allred has gained momentum against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, boosted by a Houston rally headlined by Vice President Kamala Harris and singer Beyoncé. Similarly, Nebraska’s independent candidate Dan Osborne has surprised Republicans by presenting a strong challenge to GOP incumbent Deb Fischer.

However, some GOP candidates have faced setbacks. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy came under fire for derogatory comments about Native Americans, a key voting bloc. Meanwhile, Bernie Moreno, running against Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, has faced backlash for critical comments about suburban women’s prioritization of abortion rights.

House Races: Last-Ditch Efforts in Key Districts

The House of Representatives, too, is in the balance, with close races across the country, including states like New York and California. Democratic efforts are led by Rep. Suzan DelBene, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). She reports high energy and turnout across key districts, including in traditionally unexpected battlegrounds like Omaha, Nebraska.

In California, Rep. Pete Aguilar is conducting a whirlwind tour to reclaim seats Democrats lost in recent elections. In Pennsylvania’s Bucks County and other suburbs, long lines of voters illustrate the enthusiasm both parties hope will swing close House races. DCCC analysis shows that 21 of 25 contested House seats are within reach for either party.

Unusually close races have also emerged in Maryland, where Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, who could make history as one of the first Black women in the Senate, campaigned with former President Barack Obama. Meanwhile, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland is rallying support for Democrats in a local race, emphasizing the significance of this election for the party.

Campaign Spending Breaks Records

Fueled by record fundraising, the campaigns are among the most expensive in U.S. history. Over $2.5 billion has been spent on Senate races and close to $1 billion on House races. Republicans, supported by groups like Elon Musk’s America PAC, have channeled resources into mobilizing their base, with a particular focus on early voting. Young Republicans in Ohio have noted that GOP early voting has increased significantly, potentially boosting turnout for candidates like Bernie Moreno.

Democrats, for their part, have drawn high-profile endorsements and star-studded rallies to energize their voter base. Following her appointment as the Democratic candidate, Harris’s rallies have attracted large crowds, with events featuring figures like Spike Lee in Georgia and singer Victoria Monét.

Historical Context and Uncertainty

The stakes of the election are high for both parties. If Democrats succeed in flipping the House while Republicans take the Senate, it would mark the first time in recent history that both chambers shifted to opposing parties in a single election. Such a scenario would create a unique challenge for whichever candidate wins the presidency, complicating efforts to pass legislation on issues like economic policy, immigration reform, and healthcare.

The prospect of a divided Congress is significant for House leadership as well. Speaker Mike Johnson recently rallied GOP support near Akron, Ohio, expressing confidence in his “winsome warriors” to secure control of the chamber. On the other hand, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has stressed calm, emphasizing that his focus is on maintaining order and addressing unexpected events that could arise in such a close race.

Whether control of Congress swings left, right, or remains divided, the outcome will have profound implications. It will shape the legislative landscape and the effectiveness of the next administration’s agenda, making this one of the most consequential elections in recent U.S. history.

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