Florida Special Elections Tighten as Democrats Gain Ground

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Florida Special Elections Tighten as Democrats Gain Ground/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Florida’s special House elections turn unexpectedly competitive as Democrats outraise Republicans in GOP strongholds. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, backed by Trump, face well-funded Democrats in districts Trump won handily. Low turnout and rising Democratic momentum spark GOP concern nationwide.

FILE – Rep. Randy Fine, R-Palm Bay, answers a question about his House Bill 3-C: Independent Special Districts in the House of Representatives April 20, 2022, at the Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Sears, File)

Florida House Races Quick Looks

Two special elections in Florida triggered by Trump’s second-term appointments.
GOP candidates Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis face stiff Democratic fundraising competition.
Both races are in solidly Republican districts—FL-1 and FL-6.
Democrats Gay Valimont and Josh Weil dramatically outpace their opponents in donations.
GOP begins to manage expectations amid fear of underperformance.
Trump and DeSantis both weigh in on outcomes.
Special elections have historically unpredictable turnout and results.
Weil draws broad local support, including crossover Republicans.

Josh Weil talks to a group of supporters during a Get Out the Vote event in Ocala, Fla., Monday, March 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Stephany Matat)

Florida Special Elections Tighten as Democrats Gain Ground

Deep Look

Florida’s Special Elections Show Unexpected Competitive Edge for Democrats in GOP Turf

In a surprising political twist, Florida’s two special congressional elections on Tuesday have grown into a cause for concern among Republicans, as Democrats ride a wave of fundraising and grassroots energy into what are typically deep-red districts.

These races emerged when President Donald Trump, in his second term, selected Representatives Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz for key administration posts—Gaetz for Attorney General (a nomination he later withdrew from), and Waltz as National Security Adviser. Their exits triggered races in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, both Republican strongholds.

Now, the GOP is scrambling to defend those seats. Randy Fine, a current Florida state senator, is seeking to replace Waltz in the 6th District, while Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, is running for Gaetz’s former seat in the Panhandle’s 1st District. While both candidates are widely expected to win due to the districts’ conservative leanings, their Democratic challengers are shaking up expectations.

Big Money, Low Turnout—Big Problem for Republicans

Special elections typically suffer from low voter turnout, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes. With that uncertainty looming, Republicans are eyeing the fundraising deficit with growing anxiety.

Democrat Gay Valimont, running in FL-1, has raised an impressive $6.5 million compared to Patronis’ $2.1 million. Meanwhile, Josh Weil, the Democrat in FL-6, pulled in $9 million—towering over Fine’s $1 million campaign haul. Weil’s campaign has gained substantial momentum, including grassroots support from a coalition of veterans, retired voters, and even some Republican defectors.

Fine, a staunch Trump supporter and controversial figure in Florida politics, is attempting to offset his shortfall with personal investment, having poured $600,000 of his own money into his race. His platform leans heavily on conservative values, support for Israel, and opposition to LGBTQ+ rights. However, he faces criticism for not residing in the district he’s trying to represent.

Trump Endorses, But DeSantis Throws Cold Water

In an effort to shore up support, Trump posted on social media platform X to endorse Fine, calling him an “incredible fighter.” Despite the endorsement, concern remains high. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who once represented the 6th District, predicted Fine would “underperform” due to candidate-specific issues, rather than a broader anti-Republican trend.

“I think the district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it’s almost impossible for someone with an R by their name to lose that district,” DeSantis noted, tempering expectations.

Josh Weil Gains Ground with Grassroots Surge

Weil, an educator and single father of two, previously ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for Senate against Marco Rubio but withdrew before the primary. This time, his message is resonating. At a Monday rally in northeastern Florida, around 100 supporters—including independents and Republicans—gathered to back Weil.

“Your voices are essential for me being able to serve you in Congress,” Weil told the crowd, who waved signs reading “A Teacher Representing You.”

His message appears to tap into broader frustration over the early months of Trump’s second term, helping fuel significant financial and volunteer support for his campaign.

GOP Eyes Margins, Not Just Wins

Despite confident predictions of victory, Republican strategists are keenly aware that anything short of blowout wins could signal weakening momentum. National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Rep. Richard Hudson admitted Fine could have ramped up fundraising efforts earlier but remained optimistic.