French voters are being called to the polls on Sunday for an exceptional moment in their political history: the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no majority emerging at all. The outcome of the vote, following the second round on July 7 and an exceptionally brief campaign, remains highly uncertain as three major political blocs are competing: the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition that includes center-left, greens and hard-left forces.
Here’s a closer look:
Quick Read
France Faces Unique Snap Election:
- Election Overview:
- French voters will participate in the first round of snap parliamentary elections on Sunday.
- The election could result in France’s first far-right government since WWII or no majority at all.
- Major Political Blocs:
- Three main blocs are competing: the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, and the New Popular Front coalition (center-left, greens, hard-left).
- Electoral Process:
- Legislators are elected by district; a candidate needs over 50% of votes to win outright in the first round.
- If no candidate achieves this, the top contenders with more than 12.5% support advance to a second round.
- Potential Outcomes:
- The National Rally aims for an absolute majority (289 out of 577 seats).
- A “cohabitation” scenario could arise if Macron’s alliance does not secure a majority, forcing him to appoint a prime minister from the new majority.
- Macron’s centrist government has been in power since 2022.
- Government Dynamics:
- In a cohabitation, the prime minister would implement policies divergent from Macron’s plans.
- The president retains significant influence over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense.
- Defense and foreign policy areas are typically reserved for the president, but could face tension due to differing views from the far-right or leftist coalition.
- Strategic Implications:
- National Rally’s Jordan Bardella opposes sending French troops to Ukraine and French arms capable of striking Russia.
- The leftist coalition plans to recognize the Palestinian state and break with support for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government, conflicting with Macron’s stance.
- No Majority Scenario:
- Macron might appoint a prime minister from the group with the most seats, but faces challenges if the National Rally opposes.
- Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly again until July 2025.
- Forming a broad coalition or a “government of experts” are potential but complex options.
- Institutional Resilience:
- The Constitution of the 5th Republic is deemed flexible enough to endure these circumstances.
- The population’s response to the election outcome remains an important factor.
The Associated Press has the story:
France is facing an election like no other. Here’s how it works and what comes next
Newslooks- PARIS (AP) —
How does it work?
The French system is complex and not proportionate to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district. A parliamentary candidate requires over 50% of the day’s vote to be elected outright on Sunday.
Failing that, the top two contenders, alongside anyone else who won support from more than 12.5% of registered voters, go forward to a second round.
In some cases, three or four people make it to the second round, though some may step aside to improve the chances of another contender — a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates.
Key party leaders are expected to unveil their strategy in between the two rounds. This makes the result of the second round highly uncertain, depending on political maneuvering and how voters will react.
The far-right National Rally, which is ahead in all opinion polls, hopes to be able to get an absolute majority, or at least 289 out of the 577 seats.
The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives.
Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term.
What’s cohabitation?
If another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.
In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.
France’s modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
“In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister,” political historian Jean Garrigues said.
The president is weakened at home during a cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.
“It’s possible for the president to prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign the government’s ordinances or decrees,” Garrigues added.
“Yet the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus overriding the president’s reluctance,” he noted.
Who leads defense and foreign policies?
During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.
According to the Constitution, while “the president is the head of the military, it’s the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.
“In the diplomatic field also, the president’s perimeter is considerably restricted,” Garrigues added.
The National Rally’s president, Jordan Bardella, said that if he were to become prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.
If the leftist coalition was to win the elections, it could disrupt France’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle-East.
The New Popular Front’s platform plans to “immediately recognize the Palestinian state” and to “break with the French government’s guilty support” for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Macron previously argued the recognition of the Palestinian state should take place at a “useful moment,” suggesting the Israel-Hamas war doesn’t not allow such a move at the moment.
What happens if there’s no majority?
The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly — this was the case of Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.
Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.
Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly again before July 2025, under the Constitution’s rules.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.
Experts say another complex option would be to appoint “a government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-Aug. 11 OIympics in Paris, Garrigues said a “transition period” is not ruled out, during which Macron’s centrist government would “still be in charge of current affairs,” pending further decisions.
“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, it seems that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert teaching at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “Institutions are more solid than they appear, even when faced with this experimental exercise.”
“Yet there remains another unknown in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.
