Kamala Harris/ Donald Trump/ battleground states/ Cook Political Report poll/ election 2024/ presidential race/ swing states/ polling/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in five of seven key battleground states, according to a Cook Political Report poll. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, but all leads are within the margin of error. Trump leads in Georgia, and both candidates are tied in North Carolina. The race remains extremely tight with slight shifts in issue-based trust, especially around the economy and immigration.
Harris Takes Slim Lead in Battleground States Over Trump: Quick Looks
- Harris Leads Narrowly: Harris holds a small lead over Trump in five key battleground states.
- Trump’s Georgia Edge: Trump leads Harris in Georgia by 2 points, narrowing to 1 point when third-party candidates are included.
- Key Issues Shifting: Voters’ trust in Trump on the economy remains, but his lead on inflation and immigration shrunk.
- Democratic Senate Edge: Democratic Senate candidates lead in battleground states, reflecting possible split-ticket voting.
Harris Edges Out Trump in Five Key States, but Margins Are Tight
Deep Look
Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, holds slight leads over former President Donald Trump in five of the seven key battleground states, according to a poll released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. However, all leads remain within the margin of error, underscoring how tight the race has become as the November election approaches.
Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Michigan, by 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and by 1 point in both Nevada and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Trump holds a 2-point lead in Georgia, and the two candidates are tied in North Carolina. When third-party candidates are factored into the polling in states where they are on the ballot, Harris gains an additional point in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while her lead in North Carolina extends to 3 points. Trump’s lead in Georgia narrows to just 1 point, while the standings in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin remain unchanged.
The poll results highlight just how close this year’s presidential race remains. Notably, Harris has erased Trump’s previous lead in Nevada, where Trump was up by 3 points in August. In contrast, the race in Georgia has tightened, where the previous poll had the two candidates tied. Harris’s overall lead across the battlegrounds combined remains 1 point in the head-to-head matchup, increasing to 2 points when third-party candidates are included.
Changing Voter Sentiments on Key Issues
While the top-line polling numbers have not shifted dramatically since August, the Cook Political Report’s analysis by Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor points to important shifts beneath the surface on certain key issues. Trump continues to lead on economic trust, with voters favoring him by 5 percentage points—unchanged from the previous poll. However, Harris has managed to close the gap on inflation, a key vulnerability for the Biden administration. While Trump had a 6-point advantage on handling inflation in the August poll, that lead has evaporated, with both candidates now tied.
Perceptions of inflation worsening have slightly declined, which may have contributed to this shift. On immigration, which remains a significant challenge for Democrats, Trump still maintains a 9-point lead. However, this margin has shrunk from 14 points in the previous poll.
Another key demographic shift is seen among independent voters, who were previously favoring Harris by 8 points but now give her only a slim 2-point edge. This shift could prove crucial as both candidates scramble to win over undecided and swing voters in the final weeks of the campaign.
Split-Ticket Voting in Senate Races
The poll also suggests the potential for significant split-ticket voting, where voters choose candidates from different parties for president and Senate. Democratic candidates for Senate are leading in each of the seven battleground states, though the margins vary. For example, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) holds a narrow 4-point lead over her Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, in the Michigan Senate race. This margin has halved from an 8-point lead in August. Similarly, Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (D) has seen his lead over Republican David McCormick shrink from 13 points to 7 points. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has a slim 2-point lead over Republican Eric Hovde, mirroring Harris’s margin over Trump in that state.
Larger Democratic leads can be seen in other states. Arizona’s Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) holds a 13-point lead over Republican Kari Lake in the Senate race, while Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) also leads her Republican opponent, Sam Brown, by 13 points.
Although North Carolina does not have a Senate race this cycle, its gubernatorial race shows Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein with a commanding 24-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Robinson’s campaign has been severely impacted by a report from CNN detailing inflammatory comments he allegedly made on a porn website’s forum years ago.
This massive gap raises questions about the potential for unprecedented levels of split-ticket voting in the state, where voters might overwhelmingly favor Stein for governor while the presidential race remains much closer.
Polling Details and Margin of Error
The Cook Political Report’s poll was conducted between September 19-25 across seven battleground states, surveying a total of 2,867 likely voters. The margin of error varies slightly by state, ranging from 4.5 percentage points in Pennsylvania to 4.9 percentage points in Arizona and Nevada.
As Election Day approaches, the poll underscores the intense battle for voters in the swing states that will likely determine the outcome of the presidential race.
