Putin views U.S. election/ Russia U.S. election impact/ Harris vs. Trump Russia/ Putin’s view on Trump Harris/ U.S.-Russia relations election/ Newslooks/ RUSSIA/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ As the U.S. election approaches, Vladimir Putin views both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as having challenges for Russia. Harris’s firm stance against Russia contrasts with Trump’s praise of Putin, though Trump imposed significant sanctions during his presidency. The election will impact U.S. policies on Ukraine aid, NATO, and human rights—all areas where Russia closely watches for shifts.
Putin’s Perspective on U.S. Election: Quick Looks
- Putin’s outlook: Both Harris and Trump offer challenges for Russia, though Trump is a “known quantity.”
- Ukraine policy: Harris would continue U.S. support for Ukraine, while Trump suggests he could negotiate a quick end.
- Human rights: Harris condemns Russia’s record on human rights; Trump has remained comparatively silent.
- NATO stance: Trump questions NATO obligations, while Harris supports an “ironclad” commitment.
- Arms control: Harris likely to back New START; Trump favors a broader nuclear deal including China.
Harris vs. Trump: How Russia’s Putin Sees the U.S. Election
Deep Look
As the U.S. election draws near, Russian President Vladimir Putin is keeping a close watch on what a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump victory might mean for Russia. While Putin wryly joked at a September forum about “supporting” Harris due to her “infectious laugh,” analysts say Russia views the U.S. election as a choice between two candidates with little promise of easing relations. For the Kremlin, this election will shape key issues, including support for Ukraine, NATO’s role, human rights, and nuclear arms control—all of which directly impact Russia.
Putin’s Take on Harris vs. Trump
Putin’s ambiguous remarks about Harris during an economic forum in Vladivostok, combined with his critique of Biden’s strong stance, encapsulate a reserved but strategic view. While Harris is known for taking a hard line on Russia, Trump has displayed an admiration for Putin’s leadership style, though his administration imposed many sanctions on Russia. Putin recalled that Trump “introduced more restrictions against Russia than any other president,” pointing out that despite Trump’s praise, U.S.-Russia relations remained strained.
According to Timothy Colton of Harvard’s Academy for International and Area Studies, Putin and his team “are convinced that nothing particularly good is going to come from the election for Russia’s interests.” However, Colton notes that Trump is “a more known quantity” and may thus be seen as marginally more favorable.
1. Ukraine Policy
A Harris presidency is expected to maintain Biden’s strong support for Ukraine. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, the U.S. has provided over $59.5 billion in military aid and other assistance to Ukraine. Harris has called for ongoing Western support, emphasizing that without it, “Putin would be sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe.”
In contrast, Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war “in 24 hours,” though he has not detailed a plan. His campaign suggests he might reduce sanctions on Russia as an incentive to broker peace, and he has avoided taking a clear stance on whether he wants Ukraine to win. Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, has floated proposals that Ukraine could demilitarize Russian-occupied territory and agree to neutrality—terms that would be difficult for Ukraine to accept but could appeal to Putin’s objectives.
2. Human Rights Stance
Harris has consistently called out Russia’s human rights violations, including her vocal condemnation of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death in prison. Navalny, a prominent critic of Putin, was widely seen as a target of the Russian government. Harris quickly labeled his death as “a further sign of Putin’s brutality,” while Trump took days to comment and refrained from directly criticizing Putin. Instead, Trump likened Navalny’s legal struggles to his own, comparing his fraud prosecution to Navalny’s imprisonment as “a form of Navalny.”
Trump’s rhetoric on “traditional values” and pledges to restrict LGBTQ+ rights, such as barring transgender women from women’s sports, parallel Putin’s stance on conservative values, which has led to a rollback of LGBTQ+ rights in Russia. Analysts suggest that Trump’s characterization of political opponents as “enemies” aligns with Putin’s suppression of dissent, signaling a shared approach to opposition.
3. NATO and European Security
One of the most impactful areas where the candidates differ is NATO, which has historically countered Russian influence in Europe. Harris has affirmed a firm “ironclad” commitment to NATO, including bolstering Eastern European security in the face of Russian aggression.
Trump, on the other hand, has a more contentious history with NATO. He has previously questioned the alliance’s mutual defense clause, asking why the U.S. should be responsible for defending nations like Montenegro. Trump has also warned NATO countries that if they don’t meet spending targets, he might refuse to defend them, which could embolden Russian moves in Europe. This wavering on NATO obligations could undermine the alliance, which Russia views as a barrier to expanding its influence.
4. Nuclear Arms Control and START Treaty
Nuclear arms control, another sensitive area, also hangs in the balance with the upcoming election. The last standing nuclear arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, New START, is set to expire in 2026, just a year into the next administration. Biden renewed New START at the beginning of his term, and Harris would likely continue to support the pact, which restricts the number of intercontinental nuclear missiles that each country can deploy.
In 2023, Russia suspended its participation in New START, though it has not officially exited the agreement. The U.S. responded by halting shared updates on missile status, and the two sides remain at an impasse. Trump’s approach to arms control differs; during his presidency, he withdrew the U.S. from the INF Treaty, which had limited intermediate-range nuclear weapons. Trump has called for a new nuclear deal that would include both Russia and China, a move that would significantly alter global arms control dynamics.
5. The Election’s High Stakes for Russia
The U.S. election has substantial implications for Russia, particularly on policies affecting its military, economic, and geopolitical standing. For Putin, Trump’s unpredictable approach may seem marginally preferable due to his wavering on NATO and his stance against sanctions. Harris, however, represents a continuation of the Biden administration’s hard-line approach, which has seen increased support for Ukraine and criticisms of Russia’s human rights record.
For Russia, the stakes are high as Putin weighs a future under a U.S. administration likely to uphold or intensify its adversarial position. The election will set the tone for U.S.-Russia relations, likely determining the extent of U.S. support for Ukraine, the stability of NATO, and the potential for renewed arms control agreements.
