Joe Biden’s spotty debate performance immediately triggered new questions from worried Democrats about whether he would leave the presidential race. It would not be an easy process since Biden is already the Democrats’ presumptive nominee and the overwhelming choice of primary voters. He faced little opposition during the primary season, and the fact that he won nearly all of the party’s delegates means it’s very unlikely he’d be forced out of the race against his will. That current primary system, which empowers primary voters over party bigwigs, essentially sprang from discontent after Democrats selected Vice President Hubert Humphrey as their nominee in 1968. Even after President Lyndon Johnson bowed out of the presidential race that year, recognizing his fading popularity and opposition to the war in Vietnam, Humphrey represented a continuation of Johnson’s Vietnam policy at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Violence broke out when protesters clashed with police as Humphrey accepted the nomination. Things would be very different in 2024 if Biden decided to leave the race, although Democrats’ convention will return to Chicago in August. If the leading candidate was to drop out of the campaign after most primaries or even during the convention, individual delegates would need to select the party’s nominee on the convention floor (or, potentially, during a virtual roll call). That would shine a spotlight on the normally niche question of who those actual delegates are. The Democratic Party set a deadline of June 22 for states to select the more than 3,900 delegates – almost all of them currently pledged to Biden – allocated as part of the primary process. These delegates aren’t just pledged to vote for Biden; they’re also approved by his campaign. So while a majority of convention delegates could decide to pick a new nominee, doing so would require massive defections from the president’s own supporters. It also means that if Biden dropped out of the race, it would largely be Biden backers who would be responsible for picking his replacement.
Quick Read
- Joe Biden’s debate performance raised concerns among Democrats about his candidacy.
- Biden remains the presumptive nominee, with significant delegate support.
- The current primary system, established after the 1968 election, empowers voters over party leaders.
- If Biden steps down, delegates would choose a new nominee at the convention.
- Most delegates are pledged to Biden and approved by his campaign.
- If Biden withdraws after the convention, the Democratic National Committee would select a replacement.
- Potential candidates include Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and other Democratic figures.
- The process could involve multiple voting rounds and significant lobbying.
The Associated Press has the story:
How Democrats could replace Biden as presidential candidate before November
Newslooks- WASHINGTON, (AP)
After President Joe Biden’s shaky performance at the debate with former President Donald Trump on Thursday night, some Democrats openly questioned whether he should be replaced as their candidate for the 2024 election. There is a process for doing so, but it would be messy. For answers on how that would work, AP spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, a Democratic National Committee (DNC) member, and author of the book “Primary Politics” about the presidential nominating process. This explainer is based largely on interviews with her.
Q: WHAT OPTIONS DO DEMOCRATS HAVE?
A: The Democratic Party has had no real Plan B for Biden as its presidential candidate. He ran virtually unopposed for the party’s presidential nomination this year.
He will not be nominated officially until later this summer, so there is still time to make a change and a handful of scenarios to enact one: Biden could decide himself to step aside before he is nominated; he could be challenged by others who try to win over the delegates he has accrued; or he could withdraw after the Democratic convention in Chicago in August, leaving the Democratic National Committee to elect someone to run against Trump in his place.
Q: SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
A: Right now, the process largely depends on Biden. He would have to agree to step down or face a challenger this late in the process who would try to force him to do so. So far Biden has shown no indications of wanting to step aside and no opponents have challenged him directly.
In fact some of his top potential replacements – Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom – spoke passionately in his defense after the debate, serving in a surrogate role that showcased their support but also contrasted their smooth delivery with his faltering one on the Atlanta debate stage.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS IF BIDEN STEPS DOWN?
A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in U.S. states and territories.
Those delegates would normally vote for him, but the rules do not bind or force them to do so; delegates can vote with their conscience, which means they could throw their vote to someone else. If Biden “releases” his delegates by stepping aside, there could be a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.
Q: WHO WOULD REPLACE BIDEN?
A: Several candidates could step into the fray, but there is no obvious number one.
Vice President Harris would almost certainly be at the top of the list, but she has had her own problems after a rocky start in the job and poor polling numbers. The U.S. Constitution dictates that the vice president becomes president if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, but it does not weigh in on an inter-party process for choosing a nominee. California Governor Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker have all been floated as possible replacements, but they are Biden supporters and campaign surrogates who are working to help get him elected now. You can assume, for instance, that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a top contender to be on the ballot in such a scenario. But there would be other potential candidates who previously argued they could run a more effective campaign against former President Donald Trump.
Would someone like California Gov. Gavin Newsom – who offered unqualified support for Biden in the wake of Thursday’s debate – challenge Harris at the convention? Settling on a replacement could be divisive and ugly. It would be up to the delegates to decide, in a series of votes after frantic lobbying, who to pick. On the Democratic side, there is also another group to consider: the “superdelegates,” a group of about 700 senior party leaders and elected officials who are automatically delegates to the convention based on their position. Under normal party rules, they can’t vote on the first ballot if they could swing the nomination, but they’re free to vote on subsequent ballots.
Q: HOW WOULD A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?
A: There would likely be a free-for-all of sorts between the Democratic heavyweights vying for the job.
Candidates would have to get signatures from 600 convention delegates to be nominated. There are expected to be some 4,672 delegates in 2024, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 automatic or superdelegates, according to Ballotpedia. If no one gets a majority of the delegates, then there would be a “brokered convention” in which the delegates act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership to come up with a nominee. Rules would be established and there would be roll call votes for the names placed into nomination. It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee. The last brokered convention when Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS IF BIDEN STEPS DOWN AFTER THE CONVENTION?
A: If Biden steps down after the August convention, the 435 members of the Democratic National Committee would choose a new candidate. The members would meet in a special session to select a nominee.
Q: WHO ARE THESE 435 DNC MEMBERS?
A: They are divided equally between men and women as well as various constituency groups including labor leaders, LGBTQ representatives, and racial minorities. Of the total, 75 are appointed at-large by the chair, while the rest are elected in their respective states.
Q: WHO COULD NOMINATE AN ALTERNATIVE IN THAT CASE?
A: To nominate a candidate to replace Biden on the ballot, that person would have to have the support of a minimum number of DNC members — perhaps around 60, though the exact number would be determined by the DNC’s rules committee, which would lay out the rules for the proceedings before they started. There would likely be nominating speeches and seconding speeches. Multiple candidates could be nominated before the list is whittled down.
Q: HOW WOULD THOSE VOTES BE COUNTED?
The DNC would likely hold its meeting in Washington and the votes would be counted there. Ballots would be coded, signed and collected by hand. If a vote were to happen very close to Election Day on Nov. 5, when it was not possible to meet in person, then it would likely be virtual.
What if a candidate left the race after the convention?
It would take a drastic event for a candidate to leave the race in the few months between a party’s nominating convention in the summer and the general election in November. Democrats and Republicans have slightly different methods of dealing with this possibility. You can imagine the end result would probably be that the running mate stepped up to be on the general election ballot, but that is not necessarily guaranteed.
Democrats – The Democratic National Committee is empowered to fill a vacancy on the national ticket after the convention under party rules, after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership.
Republicans – If a vacancy occurs on the Republican side, the Republican National Committee can either reconvene the national convention or select a new candidate itself.
Would the running mate automatically become the nominee?
An in-depth Congressional Research Service memo also notes that if an incumbent president becomes incapacitated after winning the party’s nomination, the 25th Amendment would elevate the vice president to the presidency, but party rules would determine who rises to become the party’s nominee. Neither party, according to the CRS, requires that the presidential candidate’s running mate be elevated to the top of the ticket, though that would obviously be the most likely scenario.
Has a candidate ever left the race after the convention?
In modern times, per the CRS, the Democrat running for vice president in 1972, Sen.Thomas Eagleton, was forced to step aside after the convention after it was discovered that he was treated for mental illness. (1972 was a very different time! Today, thankfully, there is not nearly the stigma attached to mental health.) The DNC actually needed to convene a meeting to affirm Sargent Shriver as Democratic nominee George McGovern’s second-choice running mate.
What if a president-elect was incapacitated after the election?
If a president-elect was to die, timing is again important. Under the Constitution, it is electors meeting in state capitols who technically cast votes for the presidency. While some states require that they vote for the winner of the election in their state, in others they have leeway. The CRS memo, which cites several congressional hearings on the subject, suggests it would clearly make sense for a vice president-elect to simply assume the role of president-elect, but the law itself is murky. Under the 20th Amendment, if a president-elect dies, his or her running mate, the vice president-elect, becomes president. There could be some question, for instance, about when exactly a person becomes president-elect. Is it after the electors meet in December, or after Congress meets to count Electoral College votes on January 6?
