Israel-Hezbollah Intensify Clash Without Declaring Full-Scale War \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in intense fighting, with Israeli airstrikes targeting militants across Lebanon and Hezbollah firing rockets and drones into northern Israel. Despite the violence, both sides have avoided calling the conflict a “war,” as Israel seeks to prevent further escalation while Hezbollah claims it will continue attacks until a Gaza ceasefire is reached. Over 350 people were killed in a single day of Israeli strikes, making it Lebanon’s deadliest day since 2006.
Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Intensifies Without Official Declaration of War Quick Looks
- Intensifying Violence: Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon killed over 350 people, while Hezbollah continues firing rockets into northern Israel, targeting buildings and vehicles.
- Unresolved Tensions: Both Israel and Hezbollah claim they don’t want full-scale war but have intensified attacks following Hamas’ Oct. 7 strike, with Hezbollah tying its actions to the conflict in Gaza.
- Historical Comparisons: While not officially declared, this conflict mirrors the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, though experts warn it could escalate further.
- Definitions of War: The lack of ground troops on either side has left some hesitant to label the situation as a full-blown war, though many experts argue that the violence has crossed key thresholds.
- Strategic Uncertainty: Israel’s leadership is balancing between military action and diplomacy, while Hezbollah pressures Israel to agree to a Gaza ceasefire.
Deep Look
The escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has raised concerns of another all-out war as both sides intensify attacks following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. While Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 350 people in Lebanon, Hezbollah has retaliated by launching rockets and drones into northern Israel. Despite the rising death toll, neither side has officially declared war, although the scale of violence echoes the last major clash between the two in 2006.
Israel’s airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut have primarily targeted Hezbollah strongholds, including senior militants. In recent weeks, Israel reportedly used explosives hidden in pagers and walkie-talkies to target Hezbollah members. On the other side, Hezbollah has fired a barrage of rockets, setting buildings and vehicles alight in northern Israel.
Yet, despite the severe escalations, Israeli officials maintain that they do not seek an all-out war with Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other military leaders have stated that war can still be avoided—if Hezbollah stops its attacks and backs away from the Israeli-Lebanese border. Hezbollah, in turn, insists that it does not want a war but has tied its attacks to Gaza, saying it will continue striking Israel until a ceasefire is reached in the Hamas-Israel conflict.
Monday’s airstrikes, which left 350 dead according to Lebanese officials, marked the deadliest day in Lebanon since the 2006 war. That conflict, which also involved intense bombing and rocket exchanges, saw Hezbollah inflict heavy damage on Israel with its vast arsenal of rockets and missiles. Analysts warn that the current conflict could escalate even further.
One of the reasons neither side has officially declared war is a desire to avoid a wider conflict. Israel has continued its air campaign in response to Hezbollah’s rocket fire but has not committed to a ground invasion in southern Lebanon—something that would likely tip the balance into an all-out war. Similarly, Hezbollah has kept its attacks limited to rockets and drones, avoiding a broader mobilization of its forces.
Military experts note that what qualifies as “war” can be difficult to define. According to Merriam-Webster, war is “a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations.” In practice, this definition can also encompass violence involving militias or extremist groups, as is the case with Hezbollah. Despite the rising violence, the lack of ground troops involved in the conflict has so far kept analysts and officials from labeling it as a full-scale war.
“We haven’t seen boots on the ground yet, which is why people hesitate to call it a war,” said Andreas Krieg, a military expert at King’s College London. He suggested that defining the conflict purely based on troop movements may be misleading, given the intensity of airstrikes and rocket attacks. Krieg added, “We may already be in a war by most measures, even if no one is calling it that.”
Israel’s strikes have drawn parallels to its Dahiyeh Doctrine, a military strategy developed after the 2006 conflict, which focuses on targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and weakening the group’s ability to wage war. The term comes from the Dahiyeh district in southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold that was heavily bombed by Israeli forces in the previous conflict. Israeli officials have warned that, in any future war, they will destroy key infrastructure across Lebanon to cripple Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, has spent years amassing a massive arsenal, reportedly including 150,000 rockets capable of striking deep into Israeli territory. Since 2006, the mutual deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah has kept the border relatively quiet, but the events of October 2023 have shattered that fragile peace. Hezbollah has repeatedly targeted Israeli military positions, and Israel’s retaliation has been swift and brutal.
Still, both sides seem hesitant to fully commit to war. Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, noted that both Israel and Hezbollah are still trying to pressure each other without sparking a wider conflict. “Though tensions are flaring, the situation in southern Lebanon is not that of a full-scale war, as both Hezbollah and Israel hope to use limited means to pressure one another,” Khatib said.
Hezbollah has indicated that it would stop its attacks if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, where Israel has been waging war against Hamas since early October. However, the likelihood of a ceasefire anytime soon appears slim. Netanyahu has vowed to continue military operations to secure Israel’s northern border and allow the safe return of displaced residents. He has given Hezbollah two choices: come to the negotiation table or face a full-scale war. According to Krieg, Israel’s military strategy may be to push Hezbollah into overreacting so that a wider conflict becomes inevitable.
If the conflict does escalate further, it could resemble the 2006 war but on a larger scale. Israeli officials have repeatedly warned that they would exact a punishing toll on Lebanon itself, destroying critical infrastructure and Hezbollah strongholds if the conflict becomes a full-scale war. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is believed to be better equipped now than it was in 2006, with rockets and missiles capable of hitting every corner of Israel.
Military experts have warned that while the situation hasn’t yet reached the “penthouse floor” of an all-out war, both sides are getting closer to it by the day. Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center in Tel Aviv, believes that a ground invasion by Israel would be a defining moment that could transform the conflict into a full-scale war. “At the end, I don’t see there’s going to be any alternative to a ground operation,” Rabi said.
Still, sending Israeli troops into southern Lebanon may not automatically mean an official declaration of war. In Gaza, Israel declared war three weeks before any ground forces were deployed. Meanwhile, Israeli forces have regularly conducted airstrikes and raids in the West Bank for years without any formal designation of war.
For now, both sides are trying to balance military action with diplomacy to avoid a repeat of the devastating 2006 conflict. Yet, as the violence continues to escalate, the chances of avoiding a full-scale war seem to be dwindling.
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