West African defense chiefs have drawn up a plan for military action if Niger’s coup is not overturned by Sunday, the regional bloc said on Friday, after mediation failed in a crisis that threatens regional security and has drawn in global powers. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has given Niger’s coup leaders until Sunday to step down and reinstate elected President Mohamed Bazoum. Niger’s new military junta has asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s ousted president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, according to an analyst. The Associated Press has the story:
Niger junta asks Wagner help to face regional force’s threats
Newslooks- ABUJA, Nigeria (AP)
Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger and restore its democracy collapsed as soon as they started. Tensions have escalated as the Sunday deadline nears for possible military intervention by other West African countries.
As its meeting ended Friday in neighboring Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, the region’s defense chiefs finalized a plan to use force against the Niger junta — needing approval by their political leaders — if Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated as Niger’s president. An Economic Community of West African States delegation to Niger, led by Nigeria’s former head of state Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, had tried unsuccessfully to meet with the coup leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who later declared that any aggression against Niger “will see an immediate response and without warning.”
What started as an overthrow of the president by his closest commanders in the Presidential Guard has received the support of some other soldiers, including the Nigerien army command.
Here’s what to expect:
ECOWAS INTERVENTION
This would be the first time in years that the regional bloc known as ECOWAS would try to forcefully put down a coup in West Africa, which has seen several successful coups since 2020.
“The events of the last two days make it more likely that this (military) intervention may actually happen,” said Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst at the Oxford Analytica geopolitical intelligence firm. “And if they offer resistance to an ECOWAS intervention, this can turn out to be really catastrophic.”
ECOWAS would be doing so as a split family, with three other regimes — Mali and Burkina Faso, which border Niger, and Guinea — choosing to side with the junta.
Niger’s other neighbors include Chad, whose leader has tried to mediate between the coup plotters and ECOWAS, and Algeria and Libya, which are not members of the bloc. This leaves any military intervention through land largely restricted to Nigeria’s 1,600-km (1,000-mile) border with Niger.
MILITARY STRATEGY
It’s not yet clear what the strategy of military intervention in land-locked Niger would look like, but the country enjoys some territorial advantage. With Bazoum being held in the capital, Niamey, the focus will start there.
With a population of 25 million, Niger is West Africa’s second-largest country in terms of landmass, spanning over 1.26 million square kilometers (486,000 square miles) — a hundred times more than that of Gambia, where ECOWAS last intervened militarily in 2017.
On the frontline of efforts to reverse the coup in Niger is its longtime ally Nigeria, which currently holds the chairmanship of ECOWAS.
Nigeria has West Africa’s largest military strength of 223,000 personnel — 22 times that of Niger’s 10,000, according to World Bank Open Data, and four times that of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger combined.
In Niger, some believe the military intervention might involve airstrikes. But with Bazoum still in detention, he could be both a bargaining tool and a shield for the junta.
An intervention force coming overland from Nigeria would have to cross a swath of mostly unoccupied land that hosts more than 200,000 refugees who have fled violence in northern Nigeria, further complicating any military deployment.
Niger’s international airport in Niamey is just 12 kilometers (7 miles) from the presidential palace where Bazoum is being held, which could make it more difficult to be overtaken. The country has two other international airports, including one in Agadez, where the U.S. military operates a drone base.
CONCERNS FOR THE WORLD
The latest military takeover amid a resurgence of coups in West Africa has been particularly concerning for the West, which saw Niger as its last remaining strategic partner in its counterterrorism fight in the Sahel. Niger also matters to the global market on various fronts, including its 5% share of the global supply of uranium.
Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group, warned that a military intervention “could also deteriorate into a conflict by proxy between forces outside Africa, between those supporting the restoration of democracy and those supporting the junta, which has taken a strong anti-Western stance.”
On one end is Niger’s longtime strategic allies the United States and France. On the other is Russia and its private military contractor, Wagner, which have been hailed as allies by the military regimes of Mali and Burkina Faso.
CONSEQUENCES IN NIGER
There are fears that any battle in the event of a military intervention by ECOWAS will not be limited to Niger’s capital, Niamey.
“I fear the junta would gladly use its own people as cannon fodder or human shields, and ECOWAS militaries don’t have a good record when it comes to avoiding collateral damage,” said James Barnett, a researcher specializing in West Africa at Hudson Institute.
Even the best-case scenario from such an intervention would leave ECOWAS troops stationed in the country as anti-coup forces for what could be a lengthy period. That doesn’t look good for democracy — both for the country and the region, said Powell with Oxford Analytica.
“That would make Bazoum look like he is only a president because of foreign armies, and that is going to destroy his legitimacy.”
CHALLENGES FOR NIGERIA
Nigeria leading the ECOWAS intervention in Niger could face challenges on the homefront, where its military has struggled with overstretched, outgunned and outnumbered personnel, fighting armed groups that have killed thousands in the past year across the northern and central regions.
“Nigerian military has internal problems in Nigeria,” said Bello Tangaza, a resident of Tangaza in northern Sokoto state. “They have bandits, they have Boko Haram — but they have failed to tackle these problems and they want to jump to Niger.”
A military intervention led by Nigeria could shift attention from the armed groups that sometimes enter the country through the porous border with Niger. Four people were abducted by gunmen on Wednesday in Tangaza district, and residents fear the situation won’t improve anytime soon if the military turns its attention to Niger.
Niger’s junta rulers ask for help from Russian group Wagner as it faces military intervention threat
Newslooks- NIAMEY, Niger (AP)
Niger’s new military junta has asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s ousted president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, according to an analyst.
The request came during a visit by a coup leader, Gen. Salifou Mody, to neighboring Mali, where he made contact with someone from Wagner, Wassim Nasr, a journalist and senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told The Associated Press. He said three Malian sources and a French diplomat confirmed the meeting first reported by France 24.
“They need (Wagner) because they will become their guarantee to hold onto power,” he said, adding that the group is considering the request. A Western military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment, told the AP they have also heard reports that the junta asked for help from Wagner in Mali.
Niger’s junta faces a Sunday deadline set by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS to release and reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has described himself as a hostage.
Defense chiefs from ECOWAS members finalized an intervention plan on Friday and urged militaries to prepare resources after a mediation team sent to Niger on Thursday wasn’t allowed to enter the city or meet with junta leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani.
After his visit to Mali, run by a sympathetic junta, Mody warned against a military intervention, vowing that Niger would do what it takes not to become “a new Libya,” Niger’s state television reported Friday.
Niger has been seen as the West’s last reliable counterterrorism partner in a region where coups have been common in recent years. Juntas have rejected former colonizer France and turning toward Russia. Wagner operates in a handful of African countries, including Mali, where human rights groups have accused its forces of deadly abuses.
One can’t say there’s a direct Russian implication in Niger’s coup, but “clearly, there’s an opportunistic attitude on the part of Russia, which tries to support destabilization efforts wherever it finds them,” French foreign affairs ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told broadcaster BFM on Friday. For days after Niger’s junta seized power, residents waved Russian flags in the streets.
The spokeswoman described Wagner as a “recipe for chaos.”
Some residents rejected the junta’s claims.
“It’s all a sham,” said Amad Hassane Boubacar, who teaches at the University of Niamey. “They oppose foreign interference to restore constitutional order and legality. But on the contrary, they are ready to make a pact with Wagner and Russia to undermine the constitutional order…They are prepared for the country to go up in flames so that they can illegally maintain their position.”
On Saturday, France’s foreign affairs minister, Catherine Colonna, said the regional threat of force was credible and warned the putschists to take it seriously. “Coups are no longer appropriate … It’s time to put an end to it,” she said. The ministry said France supports “with firmness and determination” the ECOWAS efforts and called for Bazoum and all members of his government to be freed.
Niger’s military leaders have been following the playbook of Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso, also run by a junta, but it’s moving faster to consolidate power, Nasr said: “(Tchiani) chose his path, so he’s going full on it without wasting time because there’s international mobilization.”
One question is how the international community will react if Wagner comes in, he said. When Wagner came into Mali at the end of 2021, the French military was ousted soon afterward after years of partnership. Wagner was later designated a terrorist organization by the United States, and international partners might have a stronger reaction now, Nasr said.
And much more is at stake in Niger, where the U.S. and other partners have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to combat the region’s growing jihadi threat. France has 1,500 soldiers in Niger, though coup leaders say they have severed security agreements with Paris, and the U.S. has 1,100 military personnel there.
It’s unclear what a regional intervention would look like, when it would begin or whether it would receive support from Western forces. Niger’s junta has called on the population to watch for spies, and self-organized defense groups have mobilized at night to monitor cars and patrol the capital.
“If the junta were to dig in its heels and rally the populace around the flag — possibly even arming civilian militias — the intervention could morph into a multifaceted counterinsurgency that ECOWAS would not be prepared to handle,” said a report by the Hudson Institute.
While some in Niger are bracing for a fight, others are trying to cope with travel and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS after the coup that have closed land and air borders with ECOWAS countries and suspended commercial and financial transactions with them.
Residents said the price of goods is rising and there’s limited access to cash.
“We are deeply concerned about the consequences of these sanctions, especially their impacts on the supply of essential food products, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, petroleum products and electricity,” said Sita Adamou, president of Niger’s Association to Defend Human Rights.
