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Niger junta’s deadline to reinstate the president has arrived

Niger’s capital was calm on Sunday, with citizens appearing undaunted by the threat of military intervention by West Africa’s regional bloc, as its ultimatum for the country’s coup leaders to reinstate the president expires. On Niamey’s streets there were sporadic displays of support for but no signs of opposition to the junta, which has said it will not cave in to external pressure to stand down following the July 26 power grab. The seventh coup in West and Central Africa in three years has rocked the western Sahel region, one of the poorest in the world and which has strategic significance for Russia, China and the West partly due to Niger’s rich uranium and oil deposits. The Associated Press has the story:

Niger junta’s deadline to reinstate the president has arrived

Newslooks- NIAMEY, Niger (AP)

The deadline has arrived Sunday for Niger’s military junta to reinstate the country’s ousted president, but the West Africa regional bloc that has threatened a military intervention faces prominent appeals to pursue more peaceful means.

Neighboring Nigeria’s Senate on Saturday pushed back against the plan by the regional bloc known as ECOWAS, urging Nigeria’s president, the bloc’s current chair, to explore options other than the use of force. ECOWAS can still move ahead, as final decisions are taken by consensus by member states, but the warning on the eve of Sunday’s deadline raised questions about the intervention’s fate.

In this image made from video, Col. Abdoulaye Maiga, Mali’s state minister for Territorial Administration and Decentralisation, speaks on state television network ORTM on July 31, 2023 in Bamako, Mali. (ORTM via AP)

The threat of military intervention came in the wake of the Jul. 26 coup when mutinous soldiers installed their leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, as Niger’s new head of state. Even as Tchiani asked for national and international support, fears swelled that the country’s political crisis could hinder its fight against jihadists and boost Russia’s influence in West Africa.

The coup adds another layer of complexity to the West Africa region that’s struggling with military takeovers, Islamic extremism and a shift by some states toward Russia and its proxy, the Wagner mercenary group.

The defense chiefs from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries excluding Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea and Niger pose for a group photo during their extraordinary meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, Friday, Aug. 4, 2023, to discuss the situation in Niger. (AP Photo/ Chinedu Asadu)

Algeria and Chad, non-ECOWAS neighbors with strong militaries in the region, both have said they oppose the use of force or won’t intervene militarily, and neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso – both run by juntas – have said an intervention would be a “declaration of war” against them, too.

Niger’s ousted President Mohamed Bazoum said he is held “hostage” by the mutinous soldiers. An ECOWAS delegation was unable to meet with Tchiani, who analysts have asserted led the coup to avoid being fired. Now the junta has reached out to Wagner for assistance while severing security ties with former colonizer France.

Hours before Sunday’s deadline, hundreds of youth joined security forces in the darkened streets in Niger’s capital, Niamey to stand guard at a dozen roundabouts until morning, checking cars for weapons and heeding the junta’s call to watch out for foreign intervention and spies.

“I’m here to support the military. We are against (the regional bloc). We will fight to the end. We do not agree with what France is doing against us. We are done with colonization,” said Ibrahim Nudirio, one of the residents on patrol.

Some passing cars honked in support. Some people called for solidarity among African nations.

It was not immediately clear on Sunday what ECOWAS will do next.

FILE- Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum at the presidential palace in Niamey, Niger, March 16, 2023. Bazoum said Wednesday July 26 2023 that elements of the presidential guard tried to move against him and that the army will attack if they don’t back down. Streets surrounding the presidential palace in the capital Niamey were blocked off as were some of the ministries.  (Boureima Hama/Pool Photo via AP/File)

The regional bloc shouldn’t have given the junta a one-week deadline to reinstate Bazoum but rather only up to 48 hours, said Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy for West Africa’s Sahel region and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Now it’s dragged out, which gives the junta time to entrench itself,” he said.

The most favorable scenario for an intervention would be a force coming in with the help of those on the inside, he said.

The coup is a major blow to the United States and allies who saw Niger as the last major counterterrorism partner in the Sahel, a vast area south of the Sahara Desert where jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group have been expanding their range and beginning to threaten coastal states like Benin, Ghana and Togo.

The United States, France and European countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance into Niger. France has 1,500 soldiers in the country, though their fate is now in question. The U.S. has 1,100 military personnel also in Niger where they operate an important drone base in the city of Agadez.

Supporters of Niger’s ruling junta, gather for a protest called to fight for the country’s freedom and push back against foreign interference, in Niamey, Niger, Thursday, Aug. 3, 2023. The march falls on the West African nation’s independence day from its former colonial ruler, France, and as anti-French sentiment spikes, more than one week after mutinous soldiers ousted the country’s democratically elected president. (AP Photo/Sam Mednick)

While Niger’s coup leaders have claimed they acted because of growing insecurity, conflict incidents decreased by nearly 40% in the country compared to the previous six-month period, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. That’s in contrast to surging attacks in Mali, which has kicked out French forces and partnered with Wagner, and Burkina Faso, which has gotten rid of French forces as well.

The uncertainty in Niger is worsening daily life for some 25 million people in one of the world’s poorest countries. Food prices are rising after ECOWAS imposed economic and travel sanctions following the coup. Nigeria, which supplies up to 90% of the electricity in Niger, has cut off some of the supply.

A military coup in Niger threatens a democratically-elected president and key ally of the West. (AP Graphic)

Humanitarian groups in Niger have warned of “devastating effects” on the lives of over 4.4 million people needing aid.

Some of Niger’s already struggling residents said military intervention is not the answer.

“Just to eat is a problem for us. So if there is a war, that won’t fix anything,” said Mohamed Noali, a Niamey resident patrolling the streets.

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