AP-NORC Poll: Democrats Pessimistic About Female President in Their Lifetime/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A recent AP-NORC poll reveals many Democrats doubt they’ll see a female U.S. president in their lifetime, following Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss to Donald Trump. About 4 in 10 Democrats view this outcome as unlikely, reflecting broader concerns about sexism and the party’s struggles with diverse candidates. The results signal a potential shift in Democratic strategy as the party navigates Trump’s second term.
Pessimism About a Female President: Quick Looks
- Poll Findings: 4 in 10 Democrats doubt a woman will become president in their lifetime.
- Election Impact: Harris’s loss to Trump deepened Democratic doubts about electing diverse candidates.
- Gender Gap: While Harris won among women voters, her margin was narrower than Biden’s in 2020.
- Future Leadership: Democrats face questions about whether non-white, non-male candidates can win national elections.
- Party Direction: The upcoming DNC chair election and 2028 strategies could reshape Democratic priorities.
AP-NORC Poll: Democrats Pessimistic About Female President in Their Lifetime
Deep Look
Post-Election Pessimism Among Democrats
Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election has left Democrats questioning whether the U.S. will elect a woman president in the near future. A December AP-NORC poll found that about 4 in 10 Democrats think it’s “not very likely” or “not at all likely” they’ll witness a female president during their lifetime.
This sentiment contrasts with Republicans, only 1 in 4 of whom expressed similar doubts. The findings reflect broader Democratic despondency as Trump prepares to assume office for a second term.
Harris’s Defeat and Gender Dynamics
Harris’s campaign faced significant challenges, despite winning 53% of the women’s vote. Her advantage among women voters was narrower than Biden’s in 2020, while Trump’s support among white women remained steady.
Harris’s loss followed Trump’s victories over other female Democratic nominees, including Hillary Clinton in 2016. These repeated defeats have fueled doubts within the party about the viability of women candidates on the national stage.
“We underestimated the extent to which sexism still influences American politics,” said Gilda Cobb-Hunter, a South Carolina Democrat.
Impact on Party Leadership and 2028 Prospects
The Democratic National Committee’s upcoming leadership election underscores the party’s shifting priorities. For the first time in over a decade, the leading candidates are white men: Ben Wikler of Wisconsin and Ken Martin of Minnesota.
This shift has sparked debates about whether the party is moving away from its commitment to diversity. Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison emphasized the importance of building grassroots power to counter Trump’s policies, but some rank-and-file Democrats are questioning the viability of future candidates who don’t fit the mold of a “mainstream white man.”
“Kamala’s loss has me rethinking the chances for candidates like Gretchen Whitmer or Pete Buttigieg,” said New Hampshire Democrat Thalia Flores, referring to the Michigan governor and openly gay transportation secretary, respectively.
Diverse Leadership and Systemic Challenges
Democrats’ pessimism isn’t limited to presidential prospects. The poll revealed that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to feel “stressed” or “gloomy” about 2025, with about 7 in 10 Democrats believing the year will be worse than 2024.
Concerns about sexism and systemic barriers persist, even as some Democrats hold onto hope. “We had a Black president, so I believe a woman could be elected,” said Sarah Burnett, a small business owner in Missouri. “But my expectations are low.”
Broader Implications for Democracy
The AP-NORC poll also highlights the challenges of maintaining Democratic values in a changing political landscape. Trump’s modest gains among Black and Latino voters in 2024 have raised questions about the party’s long-term strategy, particularly in appealing to working-class voters.
As Democrats look ahead to the 2028 election, the party must balance its commitment to diversity with the realities of voter behavior. Whether this means recalibrating candidate selection or doubling down on grassroots organizing, the road to a more inclusive future remains uncertain.
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