Kamala Harris/ Donald Trump/ 2024 election, economy/ AP-NORC poll/ inflation/ tariffs/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ A new AP-NORC poll shows voters are evenly split on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would better handle the U.S. economy ahead of November’s election. Around 4 in 10 voters support each candidate’s economic approach, with the rest undecided or not trusting either. The poll highlights the economy as a central issue, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage.
“Harris vs. Trump on the Economy Quick Looks”:
- Voters are divided, with about 4 in 10 saying either Harris or Trump would better manage the economy.
- The economy ranks as a top concern for 80% of voters, surpassing healthcare and crime.
- Harris avoids much of the economic baggage associated with President Biden’s record.
- Trump’s proposals include corporate tax cuts and universal tariffs, while Harris emphasizes middle-class benefits funded by higher taxes on the wealthy.
- Roughly 1 in 10 voters don’t trust either candidate to handle the economy well.
Poll: Voters Split on Economic Leadership Between Harris and Trump
Deep Look:
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy remains a top concern for voters, yet neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a clear advantage on the issue. A recent AP-NORC poll reveals that roughly 4 in 10 registered voters believe Trump would manage the economy better, while a similar number back Harris. This near-even split turns what was once a Trump stronghold into a political toss-up, highlighting the growing complexities of voter sentiment on economic issues.
Divided Voter Sentiment
Historically, Trump has been seen as stronger on economic matters, often citing his previous term as evidence of his ability to stimulate growth. However, the new poll indicates that Harris, the Democratic nominee, is viewed almost equally capable by voters when it comes to economic leadership. This shift is particularly notable given the challenges President Joe Biden has faced regarding the economy, such as the high inflation rates of 2022.
In a previous AP-NORC poll from June, before a major debate between Biden and Trump, 60% of Americans disapproved of Biden’s economic performance. Despite Harris’ close affiliation with Biden, the latest data suggests that she is avoiding much of the negative baggage associated with the current administration’s handling of the economy.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Concerns
One of the central issues influencing voter sentiment is inflation. In 2022, inflation surged to a 40-year high, leaving a lasting impact on consumer confidence. Even though inflation has since eased, its effects linger, with shoppers feeling the sting of higher grocery bills and rising interest rates, particularly when buying homes or cars.
According to the poll, only about one-third of voters believe the national economy is in good shape. However, many feel more optimistic about their personal finances—about 6 in 10 voters say their household’s finances are either somewhat or very good. Despite this, economic anxieties remain, with many voters concerned about how both candidates will address the ongoing challenges.
Economic Visions: Harris vs. Trump
Harris and Trump offer starkly different visions for the future of the U.S. economy. Harris has proposed a range of policies aimed at providing relief to the middle class, including cutting housing costs and lowering taxes for middle-income Americans. Her plan would be funded by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy, which she claims will contain costs without expanding the federal deficit.
In contrast, Trump’s economic strategy revolves around tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, combined with a universal tariff of up to 20% to encourage domestic manufacturing. Trump argues that such measures would spur economic growth, though many economists warn that tariffs could lead to higher prices for consumers and exacerbate inflation.
Voter Perspectives on Economic Plans
Voters remain divided over which candidate’s economic policies will be most effective. Mark Carlough, a 33-year-old medical records worker from Philadelphia, plans to vote for Harris, citing concerns that Trump’s proposed tariffs would harm the average consumer. “The tariffs would be horrible for the economy,” Carlough said.
On the other side, Richard Tunnell, a 32-year-old military veteran from Texas, supports Trump, viewing him as a successful businessman who could turn the economy around. “I believe this country needs someone to reach their hand in it and work it like a game of Monopoly,” Tunnell said.
Not all voters are convinced by either candidate. Chantelle Breaux, a stay-at-home parent from Louisiana, expressed skepticism about both Harris and Trump’s economic approaches. “Kamala wants to put a Band-Aid where major surgery needs to be done on this economy,” Breaux said. “Trump wants to run the country as if it’s a business, but it isn’t a business that is going to support all of the people.”
Broader Issues Shaping the Race
While the economy is the top issue for most voters, other significant concerns are also influencing voter sentiment. Over half of voters say healthcare is a key issue, followed closely by crime, immigration, abortion policy, and gun policy. Immigration, in particular, is a point of strength for Trump, as Republicans have long criticized the Biden administration’s handling of illegal border crossings.
Harris, meanwhile, has an advantage on issues that resonate more with Democrats, such as healthcare, gun policy, abortion, and climate change. Rosamaria Nunez, a 68-year-old retiree from Texas, pointed to gun violence as her main concern after her grandson’s school went into lockdown last year. Nunez plans to vote for Harris, saying, “She’s a gun owner, so she can relate to the safety issue. She seems like she’s more in tune with a real person than Trump is.”
The Stakes in 2024
Voters agree that the 2024 presidential election will have a profound impact on the country’s future, particularly in areas such as the economy and democracy. About 80% of voters believe the election will significantly affect the nation’s trajectory, though fewer—about half—expect it to have a direct impact on their personal lives.
As the election nears, Harris and Trump remain locked in a close race, with the economy serving as a central battleground. With no clear frontrunner on this critical issue, the outcome could hinge on which candidate can best convince undecided voters of their ability to deliver economic stability.
The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,771 registered voters between September 12-16, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.
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