Syria war/ Aleppo offensive/ HTS/ Middle East conflicts/ Bashar Assad/ Islamic State sleeper cells/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Syria’s civil war has reignited with a rebel offensive capturing Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, in a significant blow to President Bashar Assad’s forces. The push, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), raises concerns about regional stability and the involvement of global powers like Russia and Turkey. The fighting highlights the potential for renewed violence and its far-reaching consequences.
Syria’s Rebel Offensive in Aleppo: Quick Looks
- Aleppo’s Capture: Rebels seize Aleppo for the first time since 2016 in a major surprise attack.
- HTS Leadership: The jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leads the offensive, raising regional and international concerns.
- Strategic Implications: Aleppo is critical for trade and cultural significance, amplifying the attack’s impact.
- Global Context: Renewed violence coincides with other conflicts in the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas war.
- Key Risks: Potential escalation involving Russia, Turkey, and dormant Islamic State factions.
Rebel Gains in Syria: Aleppo Offensive Sparks New Middle East Instability
Deep Look
Aleppo’s Fall: A Turning Point
In a shocking resurgence of Syria’s 13-year civil war, opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have captured Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities. This marks the rebels’ first major offensive in years and a significant setback for Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose forces had held Aleppo since 2016.
The assault, described as a two-pronged attack, also targeted the countryside around Idlib and Hama provinces. Syrian forces and their allies, including Russian and Iranian-backed militias, have scrambled reinforcements to halt the rebels’ momentum.
Why Aleppo Matters
Aleppo holds both strategic and symbolic value. Once Syria’s commercial hub, its fall highlights Assad’s faltering grip on the country, 70% of which he controls with the backing of Russia and Iran. The city’s loss could embolden opposition forces, destabilize the region further, and complicate international efforts to manage Syria’s war.
“This offensive has the potential to be game-changing,” said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute.
HTS: From Jihadi Roots to Rebel Leadership
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group once affiliated with al-Qaida, has transformed its image in recent years. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS now emphasizes governance and military action within its controlled territories. Despite severing ties with al-Qaida in 2016 and moderating its stance, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the U.N.
HTS’s ability to lead the Aleppo offensive underscores its growing influence among Syria’s fractured opposition forces. However, its history of extremism, including enforcing religious restrictions and targeting minority groups, continues to raise concerns.
Broader Regional Implications
The Aleppo offensive comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, including conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Robert Ford, the last U.S. ambassador to Syria, suggests that regional factors, such as Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Syria and Russia’s focus on Ukraine, created an opening for the rebels.
The fighting risks drawing in global powers like Turkey and Russia, both of which have vested interests in Syria. Turkey supports certain opposition factions, while Russia remains Assad’s primary international backer.
Islamic State’s Dormant Threat
Though the Islamic State (IS) no longer controls territory in Syria, analysts warn that renewed fighting could provide an opportunity for the group’s sleeper cells to reemerge. The U.S., with 900 troops in northeast Syria, continues operations against IS to prevent its resurgence.
The History of Aleppo in Syria’s War
Aleppo has been a focal point of Syria’s civil war. Once a vibrant city of 2.3 million, it became a battleground in 2012 when rebels captured its eastern side. A brutal siege and relentless bombing campaign by Syrian and Russian forces recaptured the city for Assad in 2016.
Today, Aleppo’s fall to the rebels represents not only a tactical victory but a significant psychological blow to Assad’s regime.
As the rebels consolidate control in Aleppo, the region faces heightened instability. Key questions remain about the extent of HTS’s ambitions and whether international powers will intervene. For Assad, the fight to retake Aleppo will test his regime’s resilience and his allies’ commitment to his rule.
What’s Next?
- Syrian Response: Assad’s forces are expected to launch counteroffensives with Russian and Iranian support.
- Regional Stability: Watch for reactions from Turkey and Russia, as well as potential Islamic State activity.
- International Focus: Increased global scrutiny as Syria’s conflict intersects with broader Middle East tensions.
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