South Texas Latinos Shift to Trump in 2024

South Texas Latinos Shift to Trump in 2024 \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ In South Texas, a historic shift saw many longtime Democratic Latino voters supporting Donald Trump due to economic and immigration concerns. For the first time in a century, Starr County, among others, backed a Republican presidential candidate. This trend underscored the GOP’s growing appeal in traditionally Democratic, Hispanic-majority areas.

South Texas Latino Voter Shift Quick Looks:

• Generational Shift: Jorge Bazán, a lifelong Democrat, broke tradition to support Trump due to economic concerns.
• Economic Discontent: Voters cited rising costs and a perceived lack of middle-class support from Democrats.
• Regional Turn: Trump flipped key border counties, including Hidalgo and Cameron, signaling a political realignment.
• Historic Wins: Starr County backed a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in 100 years.
• GOP Gains: Republicans invested heavily in the region, capitalizing on dissatisfaction with Democratic policies.
• Narrow Democratic Wins: Rep. Henry Cuellar and Rep. Vincente Gonzalez narrowly retained their seats amid Republican inroads.
• Hispanic Voter Data: AP VoteCast indicated slightly lower support for Harris compared to Biden in 2020.
• Community Voices: Voters like Jose Luis Borrego cited inflation and stronger border control as decisive factors.

Deep Look:

For generations, families like Jorge Bazán’s in South Texas had unwaveringly supported Democratic candidates. Living on the U.S.-Mexico border in Starr County, which is part of the most Hispanic county in the nation, Bazán and his community had consistently aligned with Democratic values. However, this year marked a profound shift when Bazán cast his vote for Donald Trump, driven by concerns over economic policies and a belief that the Democratic Party had lost sight of middle-class priorities.

“I think they forgot about the middle class,” said Bazán, who works for a utility company in Rio Grande City. “People are suffering right now. Everything’s very expensive.” His sentiment reflects a broader discontent that resonated throughout South Texas, stretching from San Antonio to the Rio Grande Valley. This region, once a stronghold for Democrats, saw a notable swing toward Trump in 2020, unsettling many within the party. Yet few anticipated the dramatic realignment in 2024, where Trump flipped counties such as Hidalgo and Cameron, the most populous in the Rio Grande Valley.

Starr County, Bazán’s home, experienced a political landmark as voters backed a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in a century. The county, predominantly Hispanic and working-class, has one of the lowest median household incomes in the nation at $36,000. Here, Trump secured a commanding victory, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by 16 percentage points. This outcome highlighted a trend of working-class voters nationwide shifting to the Republican Party, even on the Texas border where Democrats once believed Trump’s tough immigration stance would alienate voters.

Luis Meza, a 32-year-old resident of Starr County, shared Bazán’s perspective. “I was always a lifelong Democrat, but I decided to change to Republican with the political landscape that it is now,” Meza said. He emphasized that the GOP offered a stronger stance on issues like immigration, which swayed his vote. Meza, initially skeptical of Trump, felt that President Biden’s term failed to bring significant change, influencing his decision to vote Republican this election cycle.

In Hidalgo County, President Biden’s margin of victory was significantly reduced compared to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, reflecting growing Republican support. The GOP invested heavily in outreach, targeting working-class and Hispanic voters frustrated by economic challenges and Democratic policies. The strategy paid off in multiple contests, including a sweeping victory for Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th Congressional District. Meanwhile, two seasoned Democratic incumbents narrowly held onto their seats in highly competitive races.

Rep. Henry Cuellar, who has represented parts of South Texas, including Rio Grande City, for two decades, faced his most competitive race to date. Accusations of bribery and charges related to accepting $600,000 from a foreign company shadowed his campaign. Cuellar, a moderate known for supporting abortion restrictions, managed to secure his seat but by a thin margin, illustrating the shift in voter sentiment. Similarly, Democratic Rep. Vincente Gonzalez barely prevailed against a challenger he had previously defeated comfortably.

Nationwide data from AP VoteCast underscored this shift among Hispanic voters. Support for Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, was slightly lower than for Biden four years ago, with over half of Hispanic voters backing her, down from the approximately 60% that supported Biden. Trump, in contrast, saw a modest increase in support among both Latino and Black voters compared to 2020.

In McAllen, Texas, Jose Luis Borrego echoed the sentiments of many in the region. Borrego, 30, cast his vote for Trump after previously supporting Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. “I wanted to see change and that’s why I did vote for Trump. I did vote red,” Borrego said. He added that while he wouldn’t identify as a Republican, economic concerns and promises of stricter border policies influenced his decision. For the first time, his entire family also voted for Trump, reflecting a collective shift fueled by frustration with current economic conditions and limited options.

Sen. Ted Cruz, who campaigned extensively in South Texas, attributed the region’s political shift to issues such as immigration. Speaking after his Election Day win over Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, Cruz said, “They are coming home to conservative values they never left. They understand something the liberal elites never will: There’s nothing progressive about open borders. There is nothing Latino about letting criminals roam free.”

Michael Mireles, the director of civil engagement at La Unión del Pueblo Entero, a labor rights group, believes that Democrats failed to engage Hispanic voters on key issues. “I think that folks on the Democratic side have been really slow to have those conversations with Latino households and families,” Mireles noted during a post-election press conference in Hidalgo County. He stressed that waiting until a major election to engage these communities is insufficient. “By that point, it’s too late,” he said.

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