US inflation October 2024/ core inflation trends/ Federal Reserve rate cuts/ consumer spending growth/ Trump economic policies/ inflation outlook/ WASHINGTON/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ US inflation ticked higher in October, with the Fed’s preferred gauge showing a 2.3% annual increase, up from 2.1% in September. Core inflation also rose to 2.8%, reflecting persistent price pressures in services like rent and insurance. Strong consumer spending and income growth may complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate cuts, as inflation remains above target.
US Inflation Trends: Quick Looks
- Inflation Rate: Overall inflation rose 2.3% in October, up from 2.1% in September.
- Core Inflation: Increased to 2.8%, signaling persistent price growth in services.
- Consumer Spending: Gained 0.4% in October, showing economic resilience.
- Federal Reserve: Expected to slow rate cuts amid solid growth and stubborn inflation.
- Economic Policy Impact: President-elect Trump’s proposals may further influence inflation trends.
Stubborn Inflation Edges Higher, Challenges Fed’s Rate-Cutting Plans
Deep Look
Inflation in the United States showed signs of persisting pressures in October, with consumer prices rising 2.3% year-over-year, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This uptick from September’s 2.1% reading highlights the challenges facing policymakers as inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.
Excluding volatile categories like food and energy, “core” prices — closely monitored for insights into long-term trends — rose 2.8% over the same period, up from 2.7% in September. This marks a continuation of elevated prices in service sectors such as apartment rents, dining out, and insurance for homes and cars.
While inflation has significantly cooled from its mid-2022 peak of 7%, core inflation has hovered stubbornly between 2.6% and 2.8% since February, underscoring the difficulty of achieving sustained declines.
Economic Resilience Supports Growth
Despite inflation’s lingering pressures, the U.S. economy has demonstrated surprising strength. Wednesday’s Commerce Department report revealed that incomes rose 0.6% from September to October, exceeding forecasts, while consumer spending climbed a robust 0.4%. This combination of income and spending growth has helped the economy expand steadily, even amid predictions of a potential slowdown.
Federal Reserve’s Dilemma
Persistent inflation coupled with solid economic growth presents a challenge for Federal Reserve policymakers, who have been cautiously cutting interest rates. While many economists still anticipate a quarter-point rate cut in December, expectations for additional reductions have waned. The Fed, which had signaled up to four rate cuts next year, may now opt for only two as it evaluates the impact of this year’s monetary policy adjustments.
Trump’s Economic Policies in Focus
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies could further complicate the Fed’s approach. Tax cuts and deregulation initiatives may spur faster economic growth, potentially overheating the economy and driving inflation higher. Additionally, Trump’s plans to impose broad tariffs on imports could push up consumer prices by increasing costs for businesses and households.
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