Sudan Crisis: Can a Civilian Government Survive?
Recent developments in Sudan raise questions about the viability of civilian or elected governments given the powerful role the military retains for itself in politics. To examine these questions, one needs to look at the developments in a historical context. Civilian governments ruled only for short periods of time following Sudan’s independence. In fact, Sudan may be the only country in which a civilian government handed power to the military headed by General Ibrahim Abboud in what is described as a bloodless coup after the government’s failure to deal with deteriorating domestic conditions. In 1958, the civilian Prime Minister, Abdulla Khalil, handed his powers to General Abboud, who was head of the army at the time. When Abboud dissolved the ruling military council in 1964 and allowed for elections under a military, political and economic pressure, the civilian government headed by Al-Sadek Al-Mahdi that took over from Abboud survived for ten months only in 1966-1967.
General Sewar Al-Dahab
Sudan may also be the only Arab country in which a military coup leader handed his powers voluntarily at the end of a -one year transitional period to a civilian elected government. In 1985, General Abdel Rahman Sewar Al-Zahab led the coup against a fellow military officer, Jaffer Numeiri, who had led efforts to unseat Abboud. At the end of the one-year transition elections were completed and Sewar Al-Zahab withdrew from the political scene handing the new prime minister, Al-Sadek Al-Mahdi, and his civilian cabinet, constitutional powers to rule Sudan as an elected government. The coups in Sudan never stopped. The last coup after toppling Omar Bashir, was led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, who, in October, removed the civilian prime minister, Abdulla Hamduk, after two years of a transitional military- civilian arrangement that would have ended by holding elections and forming a civilian government.
The Gulf Money
During the one -year Sewar Al-Zahab ruled Sudan he received support from Gulf countries to help deal with Sudan’s economic problems. Al-Zahab enjoyed strong relations with Qatar whose Emir recommended assistance to Sudan from Saudi King Fahd who provided Sudan with $60 million and oil shipments that helped stabilized the economy for a year. Today’s military leader, General Al-Burhan, enjoys close relations with the UAE. Indications are that the UAE is one country that played a role in persuading him to reverse his October coup and reinstate Hamduk as prime minister.
The Military’s Control
Under pressure from protesters in 2019, Al-Burhan removed Omar Al-Bashir and shared power with civilians for a transitional period that would have ended in November 2021. Why did he remove Hamduk in October 2021? The power-sharing agreement called for the military to hand over the entire authority to civilians by November 2021. So, Al-Burhan, removed Hamduk, the civilian prime minister, and declared his intention to appoint a new prime minister to replace him. But the reinstatement of Hamduk is a clear indication that the military leader wanted to retain powers for himself beyond the November deadline. The new agreement signed between Hamduk and the military does not give a specific date for holding elections- – another indication that the military will retain the final word in Sudan.
The Protesters Know Better
Huge protests took to the streets in Khartoum and elsewhere against not only the military coup but also the new agreement that has led to Hamduk’s reinstatement as prime minister. The crowds which continued in Sudan on a daily basis know better. They know the history of Sudan, military coups and the military leaders’ desire to control indefinitely. History shows that a coup can only be removed by another coup and a General can only be unseated by another General.
Hope for a Change
Yest, there is a small hope for change. Al-Burhan moved to share power with civilians under pressure for the crowds in the streets. He could have followed the historical pattern by removing Bashir and retaining power for himself. So, the cause for hope this time is due to the consistent crowds in the streets. The other cause is the role played by the U.S. government in pressuring not only the military by withholding millions of dollars in assistance but also the UAE and other Gulf states that have leverage over Sudan’s military. But the question remains: Will Al-Burhan ultimately allow holding elections after the unspecified transition? And if so, how long can a civilian government survive in Sudan?
Will Al-Burhan follow the example of Sewar Al-Zahab? Probably Not. Can the protesters continue to pressure for a civilian rule? Probably Yes. Can the U.S. continue to pay the same level of attention to Sudan given its strategic interests in Africa? One hopes so. More By Atef A Gawad
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Newslooks.com
