Syrian Rebels Advance, Regime Weakens Amid Global Shifts

Syrian Rebels Advance, Regime Weakens Amid Global Shifts \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ Syrian opposition forces have made swift advances, capturing Homs and reaching the outskirts of Damascus, while President Bashar Assad’s whereabouts remain unknown. The regime’s weakening grip has prompted regional shifts, with neighboring countries closing borders and international talks intensifying. The Biden administration reiterated its focus on combating ISIS rather than intervening in Syria’s civil war, as geopolitical dynamics evolve with Assad’s allies distracted by other conflicts.

Syrian Rebels Push Toward Damascus: Quick Looks

• Strategic Victory: Rebels capture Homs, disrupting Assad’s critical supply routes.
• Damascus Under Threat: Opposition forces reach within miles of the Syrian capital.
• Assad’s Whereabouts: The Syrian leader’s location remains unknown amid growing unrest.
• Regional Responses: Lebanon and Jordan close borders; Turkey monitors developments.
• Global Diplomacy: U.N. and key nations discuss political transition for Syria.
• U.S. Policy: Biden administration focuses on ISIS prevention, avoiding direct involvement.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Over 370,000 displaced, with access to aid increasingly limited.

Deep Look

Rebels Seize Momentum: Homs and Beyond

In a dramatic escalation of Syria’s prolonged civil war, opposition forces have captured the strategic city of Homs and advanced within miles of Damascus. Homs, often called the “capital of the revolution,” serves as a key intersection connecting Damascus to Assad’s stronghold in the coastal provinces. Its fall marks a significant blow to the regime’s logistics and morale.

By Saturday evening, rebel forces had reached the Damascus suburbs, capturing military posts abandoned by government forces. Insurgents are consolidating control over towns like Artouz, just 6 miles southwest of Damascus, and Sanamein, 12 miles to the south. Residents of Damascus described a city on edge, with empty streets, closed shops, and skyrocketing prices for basic goods.

The swift offensive, which began less than two weeks ago, has left President Bashar Assad’s whereabouts unknown. Speculation swirls about his potential defection or relocation as the regime faces its most significant challenges since the war began in 2011.

International Reactions: Borders Close, Diplomacy Intensifies

The rapid advances have prompted neighboring countries to tighten their borders. Lebanon announced it would close all crossings with Syria except the Beirut-Damascus route. Jordan followed suit, shutting a key border crossing to prevent spillover effects.

Meanwhile, eight key nations, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Russia, met with U.N. special envoy Geir Pedersen on the sidelines of the Doha Summit. The discussions centered on securing an “orderly political transition” for Syria. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein emphasized the urgency of addressing the realities on the ground, hinting at further talks.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the situation a “new reality in Syria,” attributing the rebel offensive to Assad’s repeated attacks on civilians in Idlib. Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s support for opposition forces, while highlighting his country’s longstanding role as a host to over 3 million Syrian refugees.

U.S. Declines Direct Involvement

Despite the rapidly changing dynamics, the Biden administration reiterated its policy of non-intervention in Syria’s civil war. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that the U.S. would focus on preventing ISIS from exploiting the chaos rather than engaging militarily.

“The United States is not going to dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war,” Sullivan said. He emphasized that Assad’s allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—have been weakened by conflicts elsewhere, reducing their ability to prop up the regime.

The Biden administration pointed to the opposition’s territorial gains as evidence of Assad’s declining support and his allies’ diminishing influence. However, officials remain cautious about the implications of a potential power vacuum in Syria.

Assad’s Fragile Grip on Power

The loss of Homs, combined with opposition advances near Damascus, highlights Assad’s weakening hold on the country. Once a symbol of regime resilience, Homs has now become a testament to the growing strength of opposition forces.

Rebels claim to have initiated talks with senior Assad regime officials about possible defections. While these reports remain unverified, they underscore the internal fractures within the government as the opposition gains momentum.

Iranian-backed militias, which once played a crucial role in bolstering Assad’s forces, are reportedly withdrawing to Iraq to reassess their involvement. Iraqi militia officials suggest their intervention could resume if Assad resists and retains control of Damascus.

Humanitarian Crisis Worsens

The escalating conflict has exacerbated Syria’s already dire humanitarian situation. Over 370,000 people have been displaced in recent weeks, with many trapped in frontline areas without access to aid. The U.N. has begun relocating non-critical staff from Syria as a precautionary measure while maintaining its commitment to humanitarian efforts.

Damascus residents face severe shortages of food and essential goods, with prices tripling in recent days. “The situation is very strange,” one resident told reporters. “We are not used to this. People are worried whether there will be a battle in Damascus or not.”

Assad’s Allies Struggle

The rapid advances by opposition forces come as Assad’s key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—are stretched thin. Russia’s military is preoccupied with its ongoing war in Ukraine, while Hezbollah’s resources have been significantly depleted by its prolonged conflict with Israel.

Iran, which has long supported Assad through its network of militias, is facing challenges from Israeli airstrikes targeting its proxies across the region. These dynamics have left Assad increasingly isolated as he struggles to maintain control over the capital.

A Pivotal Moment in the Syrian Conflict

The events of the past week mark a turning point in Syria’s civil war. The opposition’s rapid gains, coupled with growing cracks within the Assad regime, suggest a potential shift in the country’s trajectory. International actors are closely monitoring the situation, with the U.N. and key nations exploring avenues for a peaceful political transition.

While the Biden administration remains committed to avoiding direct involvement, the broader implications of Assad’s potential fall could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. For now, the fate of Damascus—and Syria—hangs in the balance.

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