Syria’s Kurds Face Uncertainty as Post-Assad Era Begins

Syria’s Kurds Face Uncertainty as Post-Assad Era Begins \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ The fall of Bashar Assad marks a pivotal moment for Syria and its Kurdish minority, who partnered with the U.S. to defeat ISIS and secure autonomy in the country’s northeast. However, their gains are at risk as Turkish-backed forces and Sunni Arab rebels advance. President-elect Donald Trump’s stance against U.S. involvement in Syria adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Kurds’ role in a post-Assad political order.

Syrian Kurds: Challenges in the Post-Assad Era

• Kurdish Achievements at Risk: After helping defeat ISIS, the Kurds now face challenges from Turkey and Sunni Arab rebels.
• Turkey’s Hostility: Turkish-backed forces threaten Kurdish-held areas, while Ankara opposes Kurdish autonomy.
• Rebel Ambiguity: While rebels promise inclusivity, actions in key areas like Deir al-Zour and Manbij raise concerns.
• U.S. Uncertainty: Trump’s isolationist policies cast doubt on continued U.S. support for Kurdish forces.
• Historical Significance: The Kurds’ struggle underscores their resilience and role in shaping Syria’s modern history.

Deep Look

The toppling of Bashar Assad’s regime has created an uncertain future for Syria’s Kurdish minority, a vital U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS and a key player in the country’s civil war. Despite achieving semi-autonomy and significant territorial control in northeastern Syria, the Kurds now face new challenges as power dynamics shift. With Turkish-backed forces advancing, Sunni Arab rebels gaining ground, and U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump in question, the Kurds’ hard-fought gains are at risk.

Kurdish Autonomy in Syria

The Kurds, numbering around 30 million worldwide, are one of the largest stateless ethnic groups. In Syria, they leveraged the chaos of the civil war to carve out a semi-autonomous region in the country’s oil-rich northeast. They formed the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters that became a cornerstone of U.S. strategy against ISIS.

The SDF’s contributions to defeating ISIS, including the capture of Raqqa in 2017, earned them international recognition. Their governance model, emphasizing secularism and gender equality, drew praise from many quarters. However, their gains have always been precarious, given longstanding hostility from neighboring Turkey and skepticism from various Syrian factions.

New Threats from Turkey and Rebels

Turkey has consistently opposed Kurdish autonomy, viewing the SDF as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization. Over the years, Turkey has funded and trained the Syrian National Army (SNA), a rebel faction that has repeatedly clashed with Kurdish forces.

In the wake of Assad’s ouster, Turkey’s influence in northern Syria has grown. Turkish-backed forces recently captured the town of Manbij, and Turkish airstrikes targeted Kurdish convoys accused of looting government arsenals. These actions underscore Turkey’s determination to limit Kurdish influence in the new Syrian political order.

The Sunni Arab rebels, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammed al-Golani), have expressed intentions to build an inclusive Syria. However, their actions suggest a more complicated reality. While rebels avoided attacking Kurdish-controlled enclaves in Aleppo during their recent advance, they forcibly displaced Kurdish fighters from Deir al-Zour. A rebel fighter’s statement about advancing on Raqqa raises further concerns about potential conflicts with the SDF.

Turkey’s Role as Power Broker

Turkey’s deep involvement in Syria complicates Kurdish prospects. Ankara’s backing of anti-Kurdish factions and its strategic alliance with Sunni Arab rebels make it a dominant force in post-Assad Syria. For the Kurds to secure their place, they may need to negotiate with rebels, risking Turkish backlash.

The U.S. and the Kurds: An Uncertain Alliance

The Kurds’ partnership with the U.S. has been instrumental in their successes against ISIS. Approximately 900 American troops remain in Syria, working alongside Kurdish forces to prevent an ISIS resurgence and secure vital oil fields.

However, the future of this alliance is uncertain under President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has consistently advocated for reducing U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, a stance that could leave the Kurds vulnerable. In 2019, during his previous term, Trump abruptly withdrew U.S. troops from northern Syria, effectively abandoning Kurdish forces ahead of a Turkish incursion. The move sparked bipartisan criticism, with many accusing Trump of betraying a key ally.

While Trump later backtracked, approving a mission to secure oil fields in eastern Syria, his isolationist rhetoric raises questions about whether he will sustain U.S. support for the Kurds in the long term.

Kurdish Legacy and Current Challenges

Despite their current predicament, the Kurds’ contributions to Syria’s recent history are significant. Their efforts against ISIS, their governance model in northeastern Syria, and their resilience in the face of adversity highlight their importance in the region.

Yet the challenges they face are daunting. The ascendance of Sunni Arab rebels, Turkish hostility, and the possibility of reduced U.S. support all threaten their autonomy. For the Kurds, navigating the post-Assad landscape will require strategic alliances and careful diplomacy, but their long-term survival as a political and military force remains uncertain.

A Larger Implication

The Kurdish struggle in Syria underscores broader questions about minority rights, regional stability, and the role of international actors in shaping Middle Eastern conflicts. Their future will depend not only on their actions but also on how global powers and regional actors choose to engage with Syria’s complex and evolving dynamics.

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