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The beginning of the end of Russian war

With Russian forces fighting each other – no matter what Yevgeny Prigozhin says about continuing the war – it will be clear to Russian fighters in Ukraine there is no point risking their lives for a losing cause. Much is unclear in Russia since the June 23 Wagner Group mutiny against the military command began. But some things have become much clearer. Pursuing a failing course has meant higher costs for the Russian forces involved. All the facts indicate that the war can’t continue like before: The elevation of the Wagner Group private militia, the recruitment of convicts as soldiers, the general conscription that prompted over a million to flee Russia, the ammunition shortages, the attacks by pro-Ukrainian Russian groups in Belgorod oblast, the public arguments between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense, the beginnings of direct criticism of Putin in social media, television, and the Duma, and the massive casualties (now possibly exceeding 360,000 dead and wounded) and failures of the Russian military on the ground. The Associated Press has the story:

The beginning of the end of Russian war

Newslooks- (AP)

Russian media reported late Saturday that several helicopters and a military communications plane were downed by Wagner troops during the short-lived uprising. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin previously said his forces had taken control of the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, as well as other military facilities in the city without any deaths or even “a single gunshot.”

In this handout photo taken from video released by Prigozhin Press Service, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, records his video addresses in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. The owner of the Wagner private military contractor who called for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister has confirmed in a video that he and his troops have reached Rostov-on-Don. (Prigozhin Press Service via AP)

With Russian forces fighting each other – no matter what Yevgeny Prigozhin says about continuing the war – it will be clear to Russian fighters in Ukraine there is no point risking their lives for a losing cause.

The Kremlin referred the question about the losses to the Defense Ministry, which has kept mum.

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The head of the private Russian military company Wagner will move to neighboring Belarus as part of deal to defuse rebellion tensions and the criminal case against him will be closed, the Kremlin said Saturday.

Servicemen of the Wagner Group military company guard an area at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. Russia’s security services had responded to Prigozhin’s declaration of an armed rebellion by calling for his arrest. In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin took the threat, security was heightened in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don and other regions. (AP Photo)

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s troops who joined him in the uprising will not face prosecution and those who did not will be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

After the deal was reached, Prigozhin said he was ordering his troops to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they have been fighting alongside Russian troops.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Saturday, shortly before Yevgeny Prigozhin’s announcement of his retreat, that Saturday’s events showed “that the bosses of Russia do not control anything.” The Kremlin, he said, “showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs” that it is easy to “capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen on monitors as he addresses the nation after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, called for armed rebellion and reached the southern city of Rostov-on-Don with his troops, in Moscow, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. (Pavel Bednyakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Switching into Russian during his daily video address, Zelenskyy claimed that “the man from the Kremlin” was “very afraid.” Zelenskyy used the backdrop of the situation in Russia to urge allies to give Ukraine F-16 fighter aircraft and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, as well as underlined the importance of Ukraine joining NATO.

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The head of the Wagner group said Saturday he has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to their field camps in Ukraine to avoid shedding Russian blood.

A serviceman stands atop of an armored vehicle of the Wagner Group military company, as he guards an area at the HQ of the Southern Military District in a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, Saturday, June 24, 2023. Russia’s security services had responded to Prigozhin’s declaration of an armed rebellion by calling for his arrest. In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin took the threat, security was heightened in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don and other regions. (AP Photo)

The announcement from Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s leadership in his more than two decades in power. Moscow had braced for the arrival of the private army led by the rebellious commander while Putin had vowed that Prigozhin would face harsh consequences.

FILE Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, speaks with Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, left, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, after a meeting with senior military officers in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained silent about harsh criticism of the top military brass from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the maverick millionaire head of the private military contractor Wagner. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

Prigozhin didn’t say whether the Kremlin had responded to his demand to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin.

The announcement followed a statement from the office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko saying that he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin after previously discussing the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A view of the Russian Defense Ministry building with anti-aircraft artillery systems atop the roof in Moscow, Saturday, June 24, 2023. (AP Photo)

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

Russia says charges against mercenary chief who mounted an armed rebellion will be dropped

Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader who urged an uprising, has long ties to Putin

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