Treasury Sec. Bessent: ‘I Can’t Guarantee’ America Will Avoid a Recession/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that he “can’t guarantee” the U.S. will avoid a recession, adding to concerns about the economy amid Trump’s tariff policies. His comments contrast with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who insisted there is “no chance” of a downturn. Economists at JPMorgan now see a 40% chance of recession, while former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns the risk is rising “every day”. Retail sales and consumer spending have declined, further fueling fears of a slowdown.
Bessent Warns of Recession Risks as Trump Officials Offer Mixed Signals: Quick Looks
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he “can’t guarantee” the U.S. will avoid a recession, though he sees no reason for one to occur.
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession fears, saying Trump’s economic policies will drive growth.
- Trump’s tariff policies and uncertainty around trade are weighing on markets and slowing business investment.
- JPMorgan economists increased their recession probability to 40%, citing tariffs’ impact on the economy.
- Larry Summers warns the risk is “rising every day” as policy uncertainty chills consumer and business spending.
- Retail sales have declined for two consecutive months, a troubling sign for an economy reliant on consumer spending.
Bessent: U.S. Recession Risk is Rising, But Not Guaranteed
Trump Administration Sends Mixed Messages on Economy
As concerns about a potential U.S. recession grow, Trump administration officials are sending contradictory signals about the economy’s trajectory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Tuesday that he “can’t guarantee” the U.S. will avoid a downturn, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick insisted a recession “isn’t happening.”
“I can’t guarantee anything… But what I can guarantee you is that there is no reason we need to have a recession,” Bessent told Fox Business.
His comments followed remarks last week in which President Donald Trump acknowledged a possible “period of transition” for the economy, sparking a market selloff.
“Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance,” Lutnick said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Economists Increasingly Wary
While Trump administration officials attempt to downplay concerns, economists and Wall Street analysts aren’t as optimistic.
- JPMorgan raised its recession forecast to 40%, up 10 percentage points from earlier this year, citing the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
- Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that the likelihood of a recession is rising every day, due to policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending.
- The latest retail sales data showed a steeper-than-expected drop, suggesting that consumer demand—the backbone of the U.S. economy—is weakening.
“The huge sense of policy uncertainty, the chilled spending, is still with us,” Summers said.
Are Trump’s Tariffs Hurting the Economy?
One of the biggest sources of concern is Trump’s escalating trade war and new tariffs set to take effect on April 2.
- Businesses are delaying investments due to uncertainty.
- Consumers are spending less, with two consecutive months of declining retail sales.
- Markets are increasingly volatile, reacting to Trump’s shifting stance on trade and economic policy.
Trump has described the upcoming tariffs as necessary for economic fairness, but critics—including some conservative economists—argue they risk pushing the U.S. into a slowdown.
What’s Next?
While Bessent insists there’s “no reason” for a recession, his inability to rule it out entirely has only fueled speculation. Markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week, as well as any new economic policies from the White House.
For now, Trump’s economic team remains divided, businesses are growing cautious, and consumers are starting to pull back—a combination that could determine whether a downturn actually materializes.
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