Trump Effect: Election Deniers shape Midterms
Newslooks- New York Spectrum
The Trump effect: Election deniers could shape the midterms and elections beyond. With hours until the midterm elections, what are the top issues defining this political season. One is none other than former President Donald Trump, who – despite not being on the ballot himself – still holds enormous sway in the Republican party.
What You Need To Know
Former President Donald Trump still holds enormous sway in the Republican party, and his endorsements may impact this year’s midterm elections.
Many of Trump’s anointed candidates parrot his claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, despite numerous court cases having proven otherwise
In total, around 58% of the U.S. population lives in jurisdictions where someone considered an Election Denier is running for a position overseeing elections.
A big question is what effect Trump will have in November, where his support could hurt more traditional GOP candidates trying to appeal to Democratic and Independent voters.
While he has repeatedly been proven otherwise, Trump continues to assert the 2020 election was stolen from him. It’s a claim a large number of GOP candidates running for state positions share.
In this year’s Republican primaries, Trump supported about 400 Republicans – over 90% of whom won. Now, he’s trying to get them elected in November.
In total, around 58% of the U.S. population lives in jurisdictions where someone considered an Election Denier is running for a position overseeing elections. That includes races for secretary of state, governor and attorney general, positions which in many states would oversee future elections.
“It’s a cult of personality. Again, it’s very much centered around Trump himself,” Mike Noble, chief of Research for the non-partisan OH Predictive Insight polling site, told Spectrum News of Trump, adding of the former president’s supporters: “They’re very loyal.”
A big question is what effect Trump will have in November, where his support could hurt more traditional GOP candidates trying to appeal to Democratic and Independent voters. And what – if any – impact the former president may have on elections even after the midterms.
Some battleground candidates embrace Trump
The Trump effect is being closely monitored in battleground states across the country, several of which Spectrum News visited to take the pulse of voters in the leadup to this year’s midterm elections.
“I miss him because everything was wonderful when he was in charge,” Donna Wicks, an Arizona voter, told Spectrum News of the former president.
Prescott, Arizona is known for its smalltown southwestern charm – and also has a deep history in Republican politics.
Barry Goldwater, a five-term U.S. senator and stalwart of the GOP party, kicked off his 1964 bid for president in the city. Senator John McCain would return to the same spot in 2008 for the final event of his White House campaign.
Today, in the building that housed the Goldwater family’s store, there’s another Republican icon – and it’s clear that former President Donald Trump remains a popular figure.
Trump’s most recent visit to Prescott was in July, when – as he has in many other places – he endorsed candidates and rallied on their behalf. And like they have in many other places, Trump’s anointed candidates in the Copper State parroted the former president’s false claims that he won in 2020.
Kari Lake, Arizona’s Republican candidate for governor, has called acceptance of Biden’s win “disqualifying.” Among Lake’s top issues are securing the border with Mexico, election security and abortion access, as she is staunchly pro-life.
Rep. Mark Finchem, running for the secretary of state office, has repeatedly denied the validity of President Biden’s win in Arizona. He also made election security – or the alleged lack thereof – his top campaign focus. Finchem is associated with the far-right extremist group the Oath Keepers, and was in Washington at the time of the Jan. 6 rally ahead of the insurrection on Capitol Hill.
Should he be elected, Finchem would be the state’s chief election officer and also the first-in-line should the governor’s seat be vacated, as Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor.
Abraham Hamadeh, a political newcomer running for the state’s attorney general seat, has called the 2020 elections “rigged” and indicated he believes there were “civil rights violation(s)” in Arizona’s presidential election.
Other candidates shy away from Trump’s endorsement
Still, there are more moderate Republican candidates who are becoming less likely to highlight the former president’s endorsement.
One such individual is Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is running against John Fetterman for Pennsylvania’s highly competitive Senate seat. Oz is no longer playing up Trump’s support after doing so while seeking the party’s nomination.
His pre-primary ads mentioned Trump more than half the time, while now the former president is mentioned only 12% of the time.
It’s a strategy that reflects the ambivalence of many voters in the battleground state.
“I was a Republican and I think he’s tearing apart the Republican Party and that bothers me,” Shanen Hoke, a Pennsylvania voter, told Spectrum News.
“I think Donald Trump, if he knew how to control his mouth, would be considered probably one of our best presidents,” Craig Laubach, another Pennsylvania voter, said in part.
Doug Mastriano, Trump’s pick for governor in Pennsylvania, has repeatedly claimed Pennsylvania’s 2020 elections were stolen, and even held an event at the outset of the campaign where attendees signed a petition to decertify the results of the presidential election in the state.
The race for governor is of particular importance in Pennsylvania because they will appoint the secretary of the commonwealth, which is the state’s chief election officer.
But unlike Arizona, where Trump’s endorsement may have boosted his chosen candidates’ popularity, Mastriano is widely considered the outlier in Pennsylvania’s race for governor.
Pennsylvania is, perhaps more so than most other states, a bellwether of political feelings across the country, split between rural counties that tend to lean more Republican and major metropolitan areas that vote with Democrats.
In 2016, Donald Trump carried the Keystone State’s presidential election by a little over 44,000 votes; Joe Biden flipped the state back to blue in 2020, nearly doubling Trump’s margin of victory and carrying Pennsylvania with over 80,000 votes.
Then there’s Georgia – a rare place this midterm season, as Trump’s pick for top offices in the Peach State lost the Republican primaries.
Former Sen. David Perdue, Trump’s pick for governor, failed to clinch the nomination against incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp; Trump’s primary nominee for secretary of state, Rep. Judy Hice, was similarly defeated by incumbent Brad Raffensperger. Both Hice and Perdue parroted the former president’s election fraud claims throughout their campaigns for the respective secretary of state and governor’s positions.
Georgia was also at the center of one of Trump’s more high-profile attempts to subvert the election, having told election Raffensperger and other officials on a Jan. 2, 2021 phone call to “find 11,780 votes” in order to flip the state in his favor.
Ultimately, Gov. Kemp certified Joe Biden’s win, thereby attracting Trump’s ire. Now, he tries not to alienate Trump – and by extension, his supporters.
“Brian Kemp certainly has a record to run on that many Georgia voters, particularly Republicans, would approve of,” Andra Gillespie, an associate professor at Emory University, told Spectrum News.
In an even tighter race for Senate, Republican candidate Herschel Walker has embraced Trump, and vice versa.
Trump has defended Walker against allegations the former football star, who publicaly opposes abortion rights, paid for an abortion for a woman he was dating, a claim Walker has repeatedly denied.
But it’s Trump’s power in Arizona that may have a lasting influence on future elections, with his picks for governor, attorney general and secretary of state all repeatedly echoing his disproven claims about the 2020 election. All three positions have substantial power in running Arizona’s elections – and Arizona is again shaping up to be a battleground in 2024.
It seems to indicate the Republican Party as a whole remains reluctant to turn away from Trump altogether – a trend that may either continue or reverse, depending on which way voters swing come November.
