Trump Seeks Ukraine Peace Talks, but Will Putin Engage?/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ As Trump signals interest in negotiating an end to the Ukraine war, experts question whether Putin has any real incentive to engage. With Russia making steady battlefield gains and Ukraine facing manpower and weapon shortages, the Kremlin sees little reason to compromise. Meanwhile, Trump’s approach—praising Putin while threatening economic penalties—has left many wondering whether a deal is realistic.
Trump Seeks Ukraine Talks, but Putin Holds the Upper Hand – Quick Look
- Trump’s Negotiation Push: The U.S. president claims “serious” discussions are underway to end the war.
- Putin’s Gains: Russia continues advancing, with Ukraine struggling to maintain its defenses.
- Ukraine Left Out: Trump appears to be discussing a deal without Kyiv’s direct involvement.
- Putin’s Advantage: With no domestic pressure to withdraw, Putin has little reason to negotiate.
- Economic and Military Factors: Despite sanctions and casualties, Russia’s economy has not collapsed.
- Historical Parallels: Critics recall past Trump-Putin meetings, where Moscow gained PR victories.
- Strategic Uncertainty: Experts doubt Trump can force Putin into a meaningful compromise.
Trump Seeks Ukraine Peace Talks, but Will Putin Engage?
Trump Seeks Ukraine Talks, but Putin Holds the Upper Hand – Deep Look
Trump’s Push for Negotiations
As the Ukraine war nears its third year, President Donald Trump is positioning himself as the leader who can bring the conflict to an end. He has claimed the U.S. is engaged in “very serious” discussions with Russia about a peace deal, implying that Kyiv is not directly involved in these negotiations.
While Trump initially boasted he could end the war in 24 hours, he has since extended that timeline to six months, hinting at ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. However, Western and Russian analysts believe Putin has little incentive to seriously engage in talks, as Russia continues to gain ground on the battlefield while Ukraine struggles with dwindling resources.
Putin’s Battlefield and Political Advantage
Despite suffering heavy casualties and enduring economic sanctions, Putin has tightened his grip on power domestically, eliminating dissent and solidifying support within Russia. Unlike Western leaders, he faces no significant internal pressure to withdraw from Ukraine.
“In the West, the idea came from somewhere that it’s important to Putin to reach an agreement and end things. This is not the case,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of Moscow’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policies.
Additionally, Russia’s economy has not collapsed, and Putin has shown no sign of backing down from his long-term goal of undermining Western security and expanding Russian influence in Ukraine.
Trump’s Strategy: Praise and Pressure
Trump’s approach to Russia combines compliments and threats. He has called Putin “smart” while also threatening tariffs and oil price cuts to force Moscow into a deal. However, the Kremlin has dismissed these economic threats, believing Western sanctions have already done their worst and that Trump’s leverage is limited.
In response, Putin has flattered Trump, calling him “clever and pragmatic” while mocking European leaders as subservient to the U.S. He appears to be banking on Trump weakening NATO unity, which would allow Moscow to push for Ukrainian neutrality.
Ukraine’s Concerns Over Being Sidelined
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that Trump and Putin may attempt to strike a deal without Kyiv’s input.
“We cannot let someone decide something for us,” Zelenskyy told AP, emphasizing that any agreement without Ukraine’s participation would signal a victory for authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, and North Korea.
Zelenskyy has also warned that Trump’s involvement could erode Western support for Ukraine, particularly in Europe, where some countries are already hesitant to continue military aid.
Lessons from Past Trump-Putin Meetings
Analysts recall Trump’s 2018 summit in Helsinki, where he sided with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies on Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election. Similarly, Trump’s 2019 talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended without any substantial agreements—leading many to believe that a potential Trump-Putin meeting could be more symbolic than productive.
“Trump wants a quick resolution to the war, while Putin seeks a slow one that weakens Kyiv and the West,” said former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, who hosted the Helsinki summit.
Putin’s Negotiation Roadblocks
While Trump may push for talks, Putin has already laid out obstacles, including:
- Denying Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s president.
- Insisting on Ukraine’s neutrality and blocking NATO membership.
- Demanding territorial concessions without a full Russian withdrawal.
- Rejecting demands for war reparations or legal accountability.
British analyst Sir Laurie Bristow summed up Russia’s approach:
“What’s mine is mine. And what’s yours is up for negotiation.”
This suggests that even if Trump secures a meeting with Putin, the Russian leader will likely offer little in return while benefiting from the global attention and perceived legitimacy such talks would bring.
Trump’s Limited Leverage
- Tariffs & Oil Prices: The Kremlin shrugged off Trump’s suggestion that lowering oil prices could force Putin’s hand.
- Sanctions: Russia is already heavily sanctioned, making new penalties less impactful.
- NATO & Ukraine: Trump cannot guarantee Ukraine will never join NATO, nor can he single-handedly lift European sanctions on Russia.
- China’s Role: One potential strategy Trump could pursue is pressuring China to limit economic support for Moscow in exchange for lifting U.S. tariffs on Beijing.
What Happens Next?
As Trump prepares for potential direct talks with Putin, the biggest question remains: What happens if Putin refuses to compromise?
“Trump’s allies often crumble under his threats. The big question is what happens when Putin won’t,” said Lukyanov.
While Trump’s desire for a legacy-making peace deal is clear, Putin’s long-term goals and control over Russia’s war strategy mean the path to an actual agreement remains highly uncertain.
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