Trump’s EU Tariff Talks Risk Disruption by China, Experts Warn/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ As President Trump pursues a trade deal with the EU to avoid looming tariffs, experts warn that China may interfere by boosting ties with Europe. Trump’s sweeping tariffs have unsettled allies, while China could capitalize on any transatlantic tension by offering economic incentives to the EU. However, concerns over Chinese dumping and trade imbalances may hinder any deepened EU-China alliance.
Trump’s EU Tariff Deal Faces Potential Chinese Interference – Quick Looks
- Trump says EU trade deal is “100%” likely before July tariffs
- China may seek to deepen trade with EU amid U.S. tensions
- Experts warn of strategic Chinese pivot to Europe
- EU wary of Chinese dumping in sectors like EVs, solar panels
- European Commission emphasizes trade balance and market access concerns
- U.S. tariffs on China now exceed 145%, causing market shifts
- Experts say EU-China trade cannot replace U.S. consumer market
- Trump leveraging U.S. economic power to influence global deals
Deep Look: Trump’s Tariff Gamble With EU Risks Chinese Disruption
As President Donald Trump drives hard toward securing a trade agreement with the European Union to avoid imposing 20% tariffs this summer, international trade experts are sounding the alarm that China may seek to capitalize on the transatlantic friction.
Trump has declared that a deal with the EU will “100% happen” before the July deadline. But China, burdened with a 145% tariff rate from the United States, may attempt to cozy up to Europe by boosting imports and expanding cooperation—potentially undermining the White House’s negotiating power.
“The EU could see China’s market as a tempting alternative if trust with the U.S. continues to erode,” said Elaine Dezenski, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Though risky, China’s economic desperation could make it a more aggressive suitor.”
Beijing’s Strategic Maneuvering
China’s trade incentives, including access to its 1.4 billion consumers, could be offered in exchange for European political distance from Washington. However, experts caution that EU leaders are fully aware of the risks. China’s track record of trade imbalances and protectionist policies remains a sticking point.
“The EU is frustrated with Chinese dumping,” said Steve Yates of The Heritage Foundation, referencing China’s history of flooding global markets with underpriced goods, particularly in tech-heavy sectors like electric vehicles, solar panels, and consumer electronics.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang recently held a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who underscored the need to rebalance trade and secure greater market access for European businesses. She also warned against “trade diversion” caused by U.S. tariffs on China, suggesting EU concerns extend beyond diplomatic optics to hard economic realities.
Dumping Concerns and Market Limitations
The EU has long sought to curb Chinese dumping practices, with von der Leyen warning of “global overcapacity” issues. Should Chinese exports to the U.S. drop significantly due to tariffs, Beijing may seek to offload surplus goods into European markets—a move likely to prompt retaliation from Brussels.
Reports suggest the EU may consider its own tariffs on Chinese goods if dumping becomes a pronounced problem. “Resistance to Chinese trade abuses is strong in Europe,” Dezenski added. “China would need to offer major concessions to win over skeptical EU leaders.”
Yet even with a potential pivot toward Europe, analysts believe Beijing and Brussels simply cannot replicate the economic impact of the U.S. market.
“Neither the EU nor China can match the growth potential of the U.S. consumer base,” Yates noted. “They can’t thrive without access to U.S. buyers. That’s the leverage Trump holds.”
Trump Leverages U.S. Consumer Power
President Trump, for his part, continues to brandish economic pressure as his key tool. From steel and aluminum to automobiles, his administration has imposed blanket tariffs on nearly all major trade partners—an aggressive strategy aimed at resetting global trade dynamics.
At a recent White House event, Trump held up charts of “reciprocal tariffs” and reaffirmed that his goal is fair trade deals that prioritize American producers. While critics worry his approach alienates allies, Trump insists that past administrations enabled unfair trade flows that hurt domestic industries.
His negotiating team, led by envoy Steve Witkoff, is expected to press hard for EU concessions while watching closely for signs of Beijing’s involvement in parallel talks.
EU Navigates Between Superpowers
The European Union now finds itself caught in the middle of a geopolitical economic battle between two superpowers. While Trump pushes for loyalty and concessions, China seeks to exploit tension by offering economic lifelines of its own.
The EU’s $345 billion trade deficit with China in 2024 only adds to the urgency. Without a significant correction, the bloc could be seen as increasingly reliant on Beijing, a scenario many leaders are eager to avoid.
Whether Europe will lean into Trump’s hardline trade diplomacy or flirt with deeper China ties remains uncertain. But what is clear, experts say, is that Trump’s strategy of economic nationalism is forcing a global realignment—and China is watching closely for its moment to strike.
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