U.S. climate policy/ global climate action/ Paris Agreement/ Trump re-election/ UN climate summit/ China climate commitment/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ With Donald Trump’s re-election, experts warn that U.S. climate policy may take a backseat, potentially derailing global climate efforts. Trump’s approach could weaken international agreements and hinder future U.S. participation in climate negotiations. The upcoming U.N. climate summit in Baku will test global resilience in addressing climate change, as other nations, including China, may adjust their commitments based on U.S. involvement.
“Trump 2.0: Impact on Global Climate Efforts Quick Looks”
- Global Climate Concerns: Experts worry a second Trump term could further sideline U.S. climate action, impacting international agreements.
- Past vs. Future: Trump previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement; this time, experts fear deeper withdrawals.
- U.N. Summit in Focus: Upcoming climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, may reveal if other nations step up to fill the U.S. leadership gap.
- China’s Position: U.S. withdrawal could encourage China and other major polluters to scale back their climate commitments.
- Optimism Amidst Uncertainty: Climate advocates hope action at local levels and by other nations can sustain momentum.
Trump’s Return Could Impact Global Climate Efforts: Will Others Step Up?
Deep Look
With Donald Trump re-elected, global climate experts are raising alarms about the potential impact on international climate action. Trump’s first term saw the U.S. exit the Paris Agreement, a global accord aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. His return could bring a deeper U.S. withdrawal from global climate initiatives, potentially reshaping efforts to curb rising global temperatures.
During Trump’s first term, international climate efforts managed to survive without full U.S. involvement, thanks in part to leadership from other nations and initiatives within U.S. states and cities. However, many climate experts fear that this time, the U.S. could retreat even further, weakening its ability to rejoin climate negotiations in future administrations. Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, emphasized the critical need for U.S., Chinese, and European leadership, warning that the world is nearing the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures—a key limit to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Trump’s re-election comes as 2024 is set to be another record-breaking hot year, with climate-related disasters like wildfires, floods, and hurricanes increasing in frequency and severity. “An emboldened Trump would be terrible,” said Laurence Tubiana, a former French diplomat who helped negotiate the 2015 Paris Agreement. Tubiana described Trump’s re-election as a setback but expressed faith in the resilience of the Paris Agreement, which she argued is stronger than the policies of any single country.
Next week’s U.N. climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, will provide an early test of the international community’s response to U.S. climate policies under Trump. At the summit, member countries will be expected to present new plans to curb emissions from fossil fuels. Asia Society Policy Institute Director Li Shuo suggested that the European Union and China might attempt to fill the U.S. void, stating, “Baku will be the earliest test of the resilience of the global climate regime.”
The last time Trump exited a major climate agreement, global partners responded with determination. When he announced in 2017 that the U.S. would abandon the Paris Agreement, not a single other nation followed suit. The “We Are Still In” movement emerged within the U.S., where states, cities, and businesses pledged to uphold the Paris climate goals independently of federal policy. Alden Meyer, a climate analyst at the European think tank E3G, noted the significance of this subnational response in helping maintain global momentum.
However, this time, climate experts fear the U.S. could take an even more drastic step by pulling out of the foundational United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an underlying treaty established in 1992 to combat climate change. Some conservative groups have recommended that Trump exit both the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, a move that would likely make it difficult for future administrations to rejoin international climate discussions. David Waskow, international climate director for the World Resources Institute, said such a move “would place the U.S. on the sidelines of international climate discussions, as if it’s ejecting itself from the stadium.”
Under the Paris Agreement, nations are expected to submit updated emissions reduction targets every five years. Although the Biden administration committed to presenting a new plan before leaving office, it’s unclear if the incoming Trump administration will honor these commitments. Meyer likened this pattern of Republican exits and Democratic reentries to the classic Peanuts cartoon, where Lucy pulls the football away from Charlie Brown at the last second. “The world has gotten tired of this routine,” Meyer remarked.
Some experts remain cautiously optimistic that global efforts can persist, despite a potential U.S. absence. Joanna Depledge, an expert on climate negotiations, suggested that the rest of the world may continue advancing its climate goals independently, even if Trump slows down U.S. progress. “The rest of the world is used to U.S. flip-flopping now and will not be diverted from their own efforts,” she said.
Yet this second Trump term arrives at a critical moment. Due to disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, previous U.N. climate negotiations during Trump’s first term were less ambitious. Now, with pressing deadlines and a rising need for urgent climate action, many leaders view the upcoming summits as pivotal in steering global climate policy forward.
U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell urged continuity, regardless of U.S. political shifts, emphasizing that the science behind climate change remains unchanged. “Global heating is already hammering every nation, hitting national and household budgets harder every year,” Stiell said, adding that the drive to mitigate these impacts should be independent of politics.
Although the Biden administration will represent the U.S. at the upcoming Baku summit, climate advocates recognize that Trump’s re-election casts a shadow over these negotiations. “Everyone there knows” the U.S. is unlikely to follow through on its commitments if Trump’s administration intends to reverse course, said Jackson.
In past U.S. administrations, agreements between the U.S. and China often paved the way for larger global consensus. Li Shuo of the Asia Society noted that U.S.-China collaboration has historically driven international action, with the U.S. typically encouraging China to take stronger climate action. But now, with Trump’s stance clear, China may reconsider its own level of commitment.
Amidst this uncertainty, former U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres highlighted the strength of grassroots action. “There is an antidote to doom and despair,” she said, “and it’s action on the ground that’s happening in all corners of the Earth.”
You must Register or Login to post a comment.