Trump’s Return Sparks Uncertainty for United Nations Agenda

Trump’s Return Sparks Uncertainty for United Nations Agenda \ Newslooks \ Washington DC \ Mary Sidiqi \ Evening Edition \ The United Nations is bracing for another four years of Donald Trump’s presidency. His first term saw dramatic actions, including U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and funding cuts to U.N. agencies. With Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik nominated as U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Trump’s administration is signaling a more aggressive approach to global diplomacy and a reassessment of U.S. contributions.

Trump’s Second Term: Quick Looks

• Elise Stefanik Nomination: Trump taps Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, signaling a more assertive stance.
• Conservative Agenda: Trump’s administration likely to use the U.N. as a stage for promoting conservative global policies.
• Climate Policy Reversal: Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and reduce renewable energy commitments.
• Security Council Gridlock: Deep divisions among permanent members may worsen under Trump’s leadership, with limited progress on conflicts like Ukraine and Gaza.
• Funding Cuts: Trump could impose severe budget reductions on U.N. agencies, particularly those critical of U.S. allies like Israel.
• Trade Disruption: Threats of new tariffs on China and other nations could destabilize global trade.
• WHO Uncertainty: Trump’s strained relationship with the World Health Organization could lead to U.S. withdrawal or funding cuts.
• Global Leadership Spotlight: Trump is likely to embrace the annual U.N. General Assembly as a platform to showcase his agenda.

Trump’s Second Term: Implications for Global Organizations

A Conservative Agenda at the U.N.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House has global organizations like the United Nations preparing for significant shifts. His first term characterized the U.N. as a “club for people to get together, talk and have a good time,” a sentiment that underpinned his reduction of U.S. involvement in multilateral agreements and organizations.

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. suggests continuity in Trump’s approach. Stefanik, a vocal supporter of Trump’s policies, has advocated for reassessing U.S. funding to the U.N. and ending support for agencies like the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).

Richard Gowan, U.N. director for the International Crisis Group, predicts Trump will treat the U.N. as a stage for advancing a conservative global agenda rather than a venue for serious diplomatic negotiations.

Climate Policy Reversals Likely

Trump’s track record on climate policy offers clear indications of what’s to come. During his first term, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, halted funding for renewable energy programs, and promoted fossil fuel development. Experts, including Allison Chatrchyan of Cornell University, believe Trump is likely to repeat these moves.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called the global clean energy revolution unstoppable, but Trump’s re-election could slow progress. Under the Paris agreement’s rules, the U.S. could withdraw within four years, reducing momentum for global climate initiatives.

Security Council Challenges and Global Tensions

The geopolitical landscape Trump inherits in his second term is more volatile than during his first. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, coupled with North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and Iran’s atomic advancements, highlight the stakes for U.N. diplomacy.

Former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton warns of heightened challenges, particularly within the divided Security Council. Russia and China’s influence over countries like Iran and North Korea complicates resolutions on key global issues.

The council’s inaction on Ukraine, due to Russia’s veto power, and its failure to secure a cease-fire resolution for Gaza reveal the limits of multilateral diplomacy. Republicans, frustrated with U.N. criticism of Israel, are expected to push Trump to impose budget cuts on the organization, further straining relations.

Trade Policies and Funding Cuts

Trump’s trade policies are likely to disrupt international commerce again. His first term saw tariffs imposed on allies and rivals alike, bypassing World Trade Organization rules. Proposals for a 60% tariff on Chinese goods could trigger significant global trade upheaval.

Trump previously suspended funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) during the COVID-19 pandemic, criticizing its handling of the crisis. Gian Luca Burci, former WHO legal counsel, suggests that Trump’s second term could bring further destabilization to the organization, potentially stripping it of essential funding and technical expertise.

Elise Stefanik and a Tougher Approach

Elise Stefanik’s nomination signals an assertive U.S. stance at the U.N. A staunch Trump ally, Stefanik has called for reevaluating U.S. financial commitments to the organization, which currently funds 22% of its regular budget. Her emphasis on halting funds to UNRWA, citing alleged ties to Hamas, aligns with Trump’s hardline approach.

Bolton anticipates Stefanik will face a steep learning curve due to the wide-ranging issues at the Security Council, but her nomination reflects Trump’s preference for loyalists who align with his agenda.

Possible Outcomes for U.N. Operations

While Trump’s first term largely preserved humanitarian aid funding, global organizations face uncertainty in his second term. Cuts to reproductive health services, climate programs, and cultural initiatives may return, while humanitarian and development aid could see shifts depending on Trump’s strategic priorities.

Despite challenges, the U.N.’s institutional momentum provides some resilience. Guterres remains optimistic about ongoing global initiatives like renewable energy adoption, though he acknowledges the disruptive potential of Trump’s presidency.

A Spotlight on the General Assembly

If there’s one U.N. event Trump is unlikely to miss, it’s the annual General Assembly gathering of world leaders. Known for commanding attention on the global stage, Trump may use the event to further his administration’s goals and showcase his leadership to a worldwide audience

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