Trump’s Tariff Gamble Risks Voter Blowback and Inflation/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs mark a major shift in U.S. trade policy, aiming to bring jobs home but risking economic slowdown and voter frustration. Economists warn of rising costs for consumers and a historic spike in tariff levels.
Trump’s Tariff Gamble – Quick Looks
- Historic Tariff Levels: Average U.S. tariff could hit 25% by April 9.
- Household Costs Rising: Yale estimates $3,800 extra per family this year.
- Inflation Threatens Growth: Rates could rise above 4%, slowing GDP.
- Administration’s Bet: Squeeze foreign economies, lure manufacturing home.
- Commerce Secretary Confident: Says policy will open global markets.
- Voter Reactions Mixed: Some praise tough stance, others fear cost hikes.
- Smoot-Hawley Echoes: Tariff levels surpass Great Depression-era policies.
- Outcome Unclear: Potential for recession or long-term manufacturing revival.
Trump’s Tariff Gamble Risks Voter Blowback and Inflation
Deep Look
Trump’s Tariff Strategy Risks Inflation and Voter Fallout as Costs Rise
President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade tariffs are reshaping America’s economic posture — and possibly the 2025 election — as voters begin to feel the early effects of rising prices and a slowing economy.
On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping set of tariffs, including a 10% universal tax on all imports and targeted rates as high as 49% on goods from certain countries. Economists say the move will dramatically raise costs for U.S. households, raise inflation, and potentially send the economy into stagnation — all while the administration races to force foreign governments and companies to realign their trade practices.
The Yale Budget Lab estimates the total impact could hit the average household with $3,800 in increased annual costs. That includes the new universal tariff, increased levies on goods from 60 nations, and earlier duties on items like steel, cars, and electronics.
Tariffs Highest in Over a Century
Economists now expect the average U.S. tariff to reach 25%, higher than at any point since the early 1900s — including the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which is widely blamed for deepening the Great Depression.
“The president just announced the de facto separation of the U.S. economy from the global economy,” said Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The stage is set for higher prices and slower growth over the long term.”
The Trump administration, however, remains confident that the tariffs will eventually pay off.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CNBC that “this is the reordering of fair trade,” arguing that the tariffs will pressure foreign nations to ease restrictions on U.S. exports and reverse decades of offshoring.
“I expect most countries to start to really examine their trade policy towards the United States and stop picking on us,” Lutnick said.
Political Peril: Rising Prices, Slow Growth
But the administration’s window may be limited. With the presidential election approaching, there’s increasing pressure to show results before voter patience wears thin.
Estimates from Nationwide Financial suggest inflation could rise above 4% this year — up from 2.8% — while economic growth may grind to a near halt.
In Oregon, Bob Lehmann, 73, said he’s already concerned. “They’re going to raise prices and cause people to pay more for daily living,” he said after shopping at a Portland Best Buy.
Meanwhile, Mathew Hall, a 64-year-old paint contractor, said he supported the tariffs despite the short-term pain. “I believe in the long term, it’s going to be good,” he said. “The U.S. has been taken advantage of for too long.”
Americans Divided — Even in the Same Family
At a Tractor Supply store in Castle Rock, Colorado, Chris Theisen, a Republican, supported the tariffs. He likened the economic hardship to working out at the gym: “I feel a good change coming on … it’s going to be hard, but it’s worth it.”
His great-nephew, Nayen Shakya, a Democrat who works in a restaurant, sees it differently. He said ingredient prices like rice have already climbed, and it’s pushing menu prices up for customers.
“It’s easy to say something everyone agrees with on the surface,” Shakya said. “But the complexity and the burden is very real.”
Listening, Theisen nodded. “I understand this side of it too,” he admitted. “I hope it works out good.”
Tariffs as Policy — or Election Gamble?
The key risk, economists say, is that the administration won’t have enough time to reap long-term benefits from the policy shift before voters feel the pain. That could create political backlash and increase pressure to walk the tariffs back before they reshape global supply chains.
“If voters start to see real inflation and job losses, support could crater fast,” said economist Rachel Blake of MarketBridge Analytics. “You can’t wait ten years for factories to return while families are paying more each week.”
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