Trump’s Tariff Policies Mirror Gilded Age, But Experts Warn of Risks/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ President Donald Trump is pushing for 25% tariffs starting April 2, inspired by the Gilded Age (1870-1913), which he claims was America’s wealthiest era due to protectionist policies. However, historians argue that the period was marked by monopolies, inequality, and economic instability, with growth driven by industrialization and immigration, not tariffs. Trump has also suggested tariffs could replace income taxes, but experts dismiss this as economically unrealistic. While Trump idolizes President William McKinley, McKinley later supported lowering tariffs—a shift Trump ignores. Economists warn that applying 19th-century trade policies to today’s global economy could backfire.
Trump’s Gilded Age Obsession and Tariff Plan: Quick Looks
- Trump praises the Gilded Age (1870-1913), calling it America’s richest era.
- Tariffs played a role, but experts say economic growth was driven by industrialization and immigration.
- Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs start April 2, mirroring protectionist policies of the past.
- Historians argue that the Gilded Age was marked by inequality, monopolies, and economic instability.
- Trump suggests tariffs could replace federal income taxes, but experts say this is unrealistic.
- William McKinley, Trump’s favorite president, later shifted away from high tariffs before his assassination.
- Economists warn that applying 19th-century trade policies to today’s globalized economy is deeply flawed.
Deep Look: Trump’s Push for a Gilded Age-Inspired Tariff Economy
Trump’s Nostalgia for the Gilded Age
President Donald Trump has long romanticized the Gilded Age (1870-1913)—a time of industrial expansion, wealth accumulation for elites, and aggressive protectionism. He believes the era’s high tariffs and low interest rates fueled American prosperity.
“We were at our richest from 1870 to 1913. That’s when we were a tariff country,” Trump said.
However, historians and economists strongly disagree, pointing out that while wealth concentrated among elites like Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan, the average American faced low wages, political corruption, and poor working conditions.
The Reality of Gilded Age Economics
The Gilded Age economy did experience rapid growth, but not solely due to tariffs. Key contributors included:
- Massive immigration, which expanded the labor force.
- Westward expansion, leading to the exploitation of natural resources.
- Technological advances in steel, electricity, and transportation.
Yet, this period also saw extreme income inequality, weak labor protections, and economic instability, leading to multiple financial panics and recessions.
“Nobody in the Gilded Age economy—except for the very rich—wanted to live in the Gilded Age economy,” said historian Richard White of Stanford University.
Trump’s Tariff Push and April 2 Trade Plan
Trump is set to implement 25% tariffs on imports starting April 2, arguing that “reciprocal tariffs” will boost U.S. manufacturing and federal revenue.
“What they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said, promising higher levies on China, the EU, and Canada.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed:
- Tariffs on steel and aluminum start Wednesday.
- Canadian dairy and lumber tariffs will be delayed until April.
- Additional import taxes on cars, microchips, and pharmaceuticals are under review.
However, experts argue that today’s economy is vastly different from the 19th century. Unlike in McKinley’s era, modern supply chains are deeply interconnected, meaning tariffs could disrupt industries rather than strengthen them.
Can Tariffs Replace the Federal Income Tax?
Trump has suggested tariffs could replace income taxes, citing the pre-1913 era before the 16th Amendment. However, this idea is economically impractical:
- In 2024, the U.S. collected $4 trillion in income tax, while tariffs contributed just $76.4 billion.
- Tariffs today account for only 2% of federal revenue, compared to nearly 50% in McKinley’s time.
Even Republican strategist Karl Rove dismissed the idea, saying tariffs alone could never fund the modern U.S. government.
Trump’s Admiration for McKinley and Historical Misinterpretations
Trump idolizes President William McKinley (1897-1901), calling him a “great president” who made America rich through tariffs.
However, McKinley himself evolved on trade policy:
- Initially, he pushed for record-high tariffs, leading to inflation and Republican losses in the 1890 midterms.
- By 1901, he advocated for lower tariffs, realizing that global trade was essential for economic stability.
- He stated: “Reciprocity treaties are in harmony with the spirit of the times.”
McKinley was assassinated before he could implement these policies, but had he lived, his approach may have resembled modern trade agreements rather than extreme protectionism.
What’s Next?
With April 2 approaching, businesses and global trade partners brace for potential economic turmoil, while Trump remains steadfast in his vision of a tariff-driven America.
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