Turkey’s Role in Assad’s Fall: What It Means for Syria’s Future

8 Dec at 11:13 am

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Turkey Syria policy/ Assad’s fall/ Syrian refugee returns/ Kurdish forces/ HTS leadership/ Turkey-Russia relations/ Newslooks/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Turkey, a longtime backer of Syrian opposition forces, is navigating opportunities and risks following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government by insurgents. While Turkish officials deny direct involvement in the offensive, analysts suggest the operation aligns with Ankara’s strategic goals, including countering Kurdish militias and facilitating refugee returns. However, potential instability and tensions with Russia and Iran present significant challenges.

FILE – A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad, File)

Turkey’s Position Amid Assad’s Fall: Quick Looks

Syrian Refugees Celebrate: Syrians across Turkey express hope for returning to their homeland.
Turkish Goals Align: The rebel offensive serves Turkey’s long-standing objectives, including countering Kurdish forces.
Denials of Involvement: Turkish officials reject claims of supporting the rebel push but acknowledge its alignment with Ankara’s goals.
Risks Ahead: Potential chaos could trigger a new refugee wave and heighten tensions with Russia and Iran.
Influence in Transition: Turkey seeks a significant role in shaping Syria’s post-Assad future while managing ties with HTS.

Turkey’s Role in Assad’s Fall: What It Means for Syria’s Future

Deep Look

Celebrations Among Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Syrian refugees across Turkey, particularly in border regions like Hatay and Kilis, welcomed the downfall of Assad’s government with jubilation. Many expressed a renewed hope of returning to their homeland after years of exile.

“We are free now; everyone should return to their homeland,” said Mahmud Esma at the Cilvegozu border gate, where crowds waved Syrian and Turkish flags. Turkey, which hosts 3 million Syrians, has long aimed to facilitate their return.

Turkey’s Strategic Goals in Syria

For more than a decade, Turkey has supported Syrian opposition groups while conducting military operations to secure its border, counter the Kurdish YPG militia, and establish buffer zones. The fall of Assad’s regime aligns with Ankara’s objectives to:

Counter Kurdish Militias: Turkey views the YPG, a U.S.-allied group, as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group it designates as a terrorist organization.
Facilitate Refugee Returns: Turkish officials emphasize the importance of stability to enable the safe return of millions of displaced Syrians.
Preserve Syria’s Territorial Integrity: Ankara opposes any Kurdish-controlled autonomous region near its border.

Denials of Involvement

Turkish officials strongly denied any role in the rebel offensive, dismissing claims as “lies.” However, analysts believe the operation could not have proceeded without Ankara’s tacit approval, given the alignment with Turkish interests.

Speaking from Qatar, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reiterated Turkey’s commitment to Syria’s unity and stability, saying, “Millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their land.”

Risks and Challenges Ahead

While Assad’s removal presents opportunities, Turkey faces several potential risks:

Refugee Wave: Instability could push more Syrians toward the Turkish border.
Tensions with Allies: The offensive could strain Turkey’s relations with Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran.
HTS Leadership: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group leading the offensive, is classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey. HTS’s role in post-Assad Syria raises concerns about long-term governance and security.

Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute highlighted the complexities of HTS leadership, saying, “Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization running a neighboring country?”

An Influential Role in Syria’s Transition

Turkey is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping Syria’s future. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has already pushed the YPG out of key areas, including Tal Rifaat and parts of Manbij.

“There will be negotiations that will decide the future of Syria,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund. “Turkey will be influential, but so will the United States and Middle Eastern countries financing Syria’s rebuilding.”