U.S. election betting/ election outcome betting/ court ruling on election betting/Newslooks/ ATLANTIC CITY/ N.J./ A federal court ruling may allow Americans to legally bet on U.S. elections. A judge struck down a decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that blocked a company, Kalshi, from offering betting markets on Congressional election outcomes. The court’s final decision, expected soon, could pave the way for legal election betting in the U.S.
Court Ruling Could Legalize U.S. Election Betting: Quick Looks
- Judge’s Decision: A federal judge ruled against the CFTC’s ban on election betting, favoring Kalshi’s push to offer betting on Congressional outcomes.
- Hearing Scheduled: A hearing set for Thursday may clarify the court’s reasoning and decide whether Kalshi can move forward with election betting.
- Betting Concerns: The CFTC previously banned election betting, citing risks to election integrity and public trust.
- Widespread Abroad: While banned in the U.S., election betting is common in Europe, where bettors can already wager on U.S. elections.
U.S. Election Betting May Become Legal Following Court Ruling
Deep Look
The legal gambling landscape in the U.S. may soon expand to include betting on election outcomes, pending a federal court decision. In a major development, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled last Friday in favor of Kalshi, a New York-based company that sought to offer yes-no prediction markets on Congressional elections. This ruling, which paused further action until a hearing scheduled for Thursday, could clear the path for Americans to legally bet on U.S. elections for the first time.
Kalshi has been in a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which initially blocked its attempts to launch election betting markets. The CFTC argued that betting on elections posed risks to the integrity of the democratic process, including potential monetary incentives that could influence voters or create the perception of corruption. In September 2023, the CFTC ruled that Kalshi’s proposed markets violated federal law by constituting illegal gambling.
However, Kalshi challenged the ruling, and Judge Cobb’s recent decision suggests the company may have found legal grounds to offer election betting. Although the reasoning behind the judge’s decision has not yet been fully explained, the hearing on Thursday is expected to provide further details.
Potential Impact of the Ruling
Should Kalshi prevail, it would mark the first time Americans could legally wager on the outcome of elections within U.S. borders. Currently, no U.S. state permits election betting, and several states explicitly ban the practice. Despite this, betting on elections remains popular among U.S. gamblers who use foreign websites, where betting on political outcomes is widespread, particularly in Europe.
Kalshi has argued that blocking its election markets denies the public the ability to participate in prediction markets that can offer insights into political trends. In a court filing, the company criticized the CFTC for preventing access to these markets just months before the upcoming Congressional elections.
Election Integrity Concerns
The CFTC’s concerns center around the potential for election betting to undermine public confidence in the electoral process. The agency cited fears that betting could incentivize people to act in ways that could affect the outcome of elections, such as voting for a candidate based on monetary gain rather than their political preference. The commission also warned that betting on elections could lead to suspicions of manipulation or corruption, further eroding trust in the political system.
Kalshi, however, maintains that its proposed markets are no different from other prediction markets that exist in finance and commodities, arguing that proper regulation can address these concerns. The company emphasized that their operations would be transparent and subject to oversight.
What’s Next?
The court’s upcoming decision could be a watershed moment for the future of legal election betting in the U.S. If the court sides with Kalshi, it may open the door for other companies to follow suit, potentially expanding the legal gambling market to include presidential and Congressional elections.
In 2020, several major U.S. sportsbooks expressed interest in offering election betting but were limited by current regulations. European sportsbooks, meanwhile, continue to offer U.S. election odds. On Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris was listed as a slight favorite to win the 2024 presidential election on various European betting sites, following her performance in the recent debate.
