U.S. Job Growth Added 228K, Unemployment Rises to 4.2%

4 Apr at 9:00 am

3095 posts

U.S. Job Growth Added 228K Unemployment Rises to 4.2%/ Newslooks/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, as the American labor market continues to show resilience as President Donald Trump wages trade wars, purges federal workers and deports immigrants working in the United States illegally. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

FILE – A person waits in a line for a prospective employer at a job fair, Thursday, Aug. 29, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)

U.S. Job Growth Slows Amid Trump Trade Tensions – Quick Looks

Forecasts suggest Added 228K, up from 151,000 in February
Unemployment rate likely rose to 4.2%, reflecting a cooling labor market
Trump’s tariffs, deportation plans, and workforce purges are creating economic uncertainty
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoffs beginning to impact federal jobs
Inflation progress has stalled, delaying further interest rate cuts by the Fed
Consumer sentiment weakens, with fears of rising unemployment at a 16-year high
Analysts warn of future job report revisions, potentially revealing deeper trouble

U.S. Job Growth Added 228K, Unemployment Rises to 4.2%

Deep Look

As economic anxiety rises, the U.S. job market appears to be cooling, reflecting the growing impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and broader economic agenda. According to economists surveyed by FactSet, the Labor Department’s March employment report—due Friday—is expected to show Added 228K, up from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

While the numbers are not disastrous, they represent a continued slowdown from the more robust labor growth seen in previous years. Analysts caution that deeper cracks may be forming beneath the surface.

Much of the current unease stems from Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, which include a baseline 10% tax on all imports, with higher rates for goods from major trading partners like China and the European Union. These measures have fueled fears of higher consumer prices, global retaliation, and severe disruption to supply chains.

Adding to those concerns are Trump’s repeated promises to deport millions of undocumented immigrants currently working in the U.S. These workers have historically helped mitigate labor shortages, especially in agriculture, construction, and hospitality sectors. Their removal could force employers to either scale back operations or raise wages—pressures that could feed inflation and slow economic output.

Compounding the situation, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has begun widespread layoffs across the federal workforce. Though the job cuts haven’t significantly impacted national employment figures yet, economists say the effects are likely to become more pronounced in the months ahead.

Still, not all forecasts are gloomy. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra projects a stronger-than-expected 185,000 job gain for March. She cites a potential rebound in hospitality and leisure hiring, as warmer spring weather may have helped industries that were previously slowed by harsh winter conditions.

Yet the broader trend points toward a labor market gradually losing steam. In February, employers added 151,000 jobs—down from the 168,000 monthly average in 2024. That number was already a decrease from 2023’s 216,000 monthly average and well below 2022’s 380,000. In 2021, fueled by post-pandemic recovery, the U.S. added a record 603,000 jobs per month.

Despite elevated interest rates, the economy has so far avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 11 times between 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation. Surprisingly, economic activity held strong as consumers kept spending and employers continued to hire.

That strength allowed the Fed to cut rates three times in 2024. But now, progress on inflation has stalled, forcing central bankers to pause additional rate cuts. This pause, coupled with escalating trade disputes, has led to growing doubts about economic stability.

Consumer sentiment is also showing signs of strain. The University of Michigan’s March survey revealed that two-thirds of Americans expect unemployment to rise within the next year—the highest pessimism recorded since 2009. This shift in public perception could weigh further on spending and investment decisions.

Economists are bracing for more volatility ahead. PNC Economics’ Ershang Liang warned Thursday that while the economy remains solid for now, “the ongoing trade war has increased the risk of near-term recession dramatically.”

Others believe current job numbers may paint an overly optimistic picture. Thomas Simons, chief economist at Jefferies, said seasonal adjustments could be inflating the March report. “After we see more data, and eventually a number of revisions, this period of time in the labor market will probably look quite a bit worse than it does now,” Simons noted.

In sum, the U.S. economy remains on a knife’s edge. While job creation continues, momentum is slowing, and external pressures—from trade policies to workforce shifts—are intensifying. Whether the March numbers mark the beginning of a steeper downturn or merely a temporary pause will depend on how these variables unfold in the coming months.