Will California Raise the Minimum Wage to $18? Voters to Decide

California minimum wage/ Proposition 32/ minimum wage increase/ $18 minimum wage/ California ballot measure/ Newslooks/ LOS ANGELES/ CALIFORNIA/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ In the upcoming November vote, Californians will decide whether to raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 an hour by 2026. Proponents argue it would benefit low-wage workers facing high living costs, while opponents worry about the financial impact on small businesses.

California’s $18 Minimum Wage Proposal: What’s at Stake Quick Looks

• Ballot Proposal: Proposition 32 would increase California’s minimum wage to $18 by 2026.
• Supporters’ View: Advocates argue the increase would help families and reduce reliance on government aid.
• Opposition: Critics say the hike could lead to higher consumer costs and job cuts.
• Existing High Wages: Many California cities already have local minimum wages above the state rate.
• Economic Impact Studies: Research shows minimal employment impact from past minimum wage increases.

Will California Raise the Minimum Wage to $18? Voters to Decide

Deep Look

In November, Californians will cast ballots on Proposition 32, a measure proposing to raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026. If approved, this increase would set California’s minimum wage among the highest in the nation, on par with Hawaii’s $18 minimum wage slated for 2028. Currently, California’s minimum wage is $16 an hour for large employers, with a slight increase scheduled to reach $16.50 in 2025 if the measure does not pass.

For proponents, the increase is essential to helping workers afford basic living expenses in a state where housing and food costs are high. Investor and anti-poverty advocate Joe Sanberg, a chief supporter of the measure, argues that the increase would boost wages for over two million Californians. “If someone working full-time needs food stamps, it shows taxpayers are covering what their employers should,” he said, calling it “corporate welfare.” Sanberg estimates the raise would mean about $3,000 more in annual income for minimum-wage earners.

Impact on Small Businesses

The proposal faces strong opposition from business groups who say the hike would hurt small employers and could lead to price increases for consumers and potential job losses. Jennifer Barrera, president of the California Chamber of Commerce, said the measure would be particularly challenging for smaller businesses operating on slim profit margins. “The rapid increase will affect their ability to maintain business operations,” she noted, arguing that companies may cut hours or raise prices to manage costs.

Despite these concerns, California cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Berkeley already have minimum wages above the current state rate, with Los Angeles recently setting its minimum at $17.28. West Hollywood holds the highest municipal minimum wage in the U.S. at $19.08. However, a survey of businesses there reported that 42% of employers had either reduced employee hours or laid off workers to manage the increased labor costs.

Governor Gavin Newsom has also taken steps to address worker wages across industries. He recently approved a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers and a gradual increase to $25 per hour for healthcare workers by 2026. The new fast food wage has led to modest price increases, around 3.7%, but employment in the sector has remained stable, according to a study from the University of California, Berkeley. While some franchises report reducing hours due to the increase, studies suggest no significant overall effect on employment rates.

Long-Term Employment Impact

Economic experts are divided on how minimum wage increases affect employment. Research by University of Pennsylvania professor Ioana Marinescu suggests that minimum wage hikes generally have little net effect on overall employment, a trend seen across multiple studies. “The effect on employment is close to zero on average,” Marinescu explained, though some businesses may face challenges.

Opponents of the measure also argue that the minimum wage jobs in question often serve as starting points for younger workers. However, a report from California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office reveals that approximately half of low-wage earners are over age 35, and a quarter are over 50, with many working in sectors like home healthcare. Latino workers represent more than half of the state’s low-wage workforce, underscoring the diverse demographic impact of any minimum wage changes.

For small business owners like Juliette Kunin, who runs a Sacramento gift shop, the potential impact of the wage increase is a source of mixed feelings. “I want to see everyone earn enough to support themselves,” Kunin said, “but if the numbers don’t work, we won’t be able to keep the doors open.”

Workers’ Perspectives

Many workers across California back the proposal, especially those who have felt the pinch of high living costs. Christian Medina, a banquet captain in Sacramento who earns $16 an hour plus tips, voiced his support, noting that a higher wage would help him save for his daughter’s future. “It’s hard getting by on $16 an hour,” he said.

Some employees, like hotel uniform attendant Carmen Riestra, feel even an $18 minimum would still fall short in covering living costs. At $19 an hour after 11 years on the job, Riestra says that job cuts and rising workloads in recent years have left her and her colleagues struggling. “That’s not enough for Sacramento,” she added, referring to the cost of living.

As California prepares to vote, Proposition 32 has spotlighted the complex issues around setting a fair minimum wage in one of the country’s most expensive states. If passed, the measure will increase wages statewide and likely fuel further debate on balancing fair pay with business sustainability.

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